This Week in Mets: What might New York need at the trade deadline?

New York Times

2 days ago

'We create without turning,
without looking back, without ever
really knowing we create.'
— 'The Apple Tree,' Galway Kinnell
A baseball season, most front-office folks will tell you, is traditionally broken down into three parts. In the first third of the season, you're feeling out what kind of team you have, up through about Memorial Day. In the second third, you're figuring out how to improve that team by the trade deadline. In the final third, you learn whether you were right.
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After a weekend sweep of the Rockies, the Mets are formally into that second third — 59 games down, 50 to go before the deadline on July 31. With a big series on the way this week in Los Angeles, let's examine what the Mets will be trying to figure out between now and the trade deadline.
The Mets have arrived at the first week of June in first place despite an offense that hasn't performed up to expectations. They currently average 4.41 runs per game, a shade above the major-league average of 4.33, and only good for ninth in the National League.
There's reason to believe that will change. Juan Soto, of course, has not yet hit like Juan Soto. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso took steps in May. (Pretty much nobody outside of Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil had strong Mays for New York.) Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez should be better, though their youth and shorter track records render them larger question marks than they'd otherwise be.
If those players pick up the pace, as you'd expect, then the Mets will enter the second half of July pretty comfortable with their offense. If they're still sitting ninth in the NL in scoring by then, it will be time for an upgrade. Where that upgrade needs to happen is unpredictable; it could be at second base, third base, catcher, designated hitter, etc. (No, no, no, it will not be in right field.)
The Mets are where they are with that offense because of the way their pitching staff has performed. New York's rotation has finally fallen behind the Rangers for the best ERA in baseball, but its 2.91 ERA is still the best in the NL by more than half a run.
The Mets have proven in these first two months that they possess enviable starting depth: Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill were supposed to fight it out for the sixth spot in the rotation, and instead they've both pitched exceedingly well every fifth day. The question is how good the top half of the Mets' rotation can be.
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In other words, who do the Mets want to trust come October?
As good as New York's rotation pitched down the stretch and into the early rounds last year, it wasn't up to the task against the Dodgers' star-studded lineup in the NLCS. Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea should return before the All-Star break, and by then, the Mets will have a better read on the sustainability of what Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Canning and Megill have done.
No, right here, right now, it doesn't look like the Mets will be in the market for an ace at the deadline. (It's also up in the air how many purported aces will be on the market.) But the Mets should be in position to start contemplating the best playoff roster they can build, and the top part of the rotation could be in that conversation.
The bullpen has been even better than the rotation, though its ERA is only good for second-best in the NL behind San Francisco's relief corps. Edwin Díaz has looked sharper than he did at any point last season, Reed Garrett has been lights out for two months, and Huascar Brazobán has been a revelation as a high-leverage innings-eater.
At some point, they're going to hit a snag — the way they did when A.J. Minter and Danny Young went down for the season days apart. New York has other options built in: Ryne Stanek has rebounded well from his rough period in late April, Dedniel Núñez should come back to the majors eventually, and Brooks Raley can help out from the left side in the season's second half. But the likelihood is the Mets seek out assistance for the pen, whether it's just another left-handed arm or a fresher arm for the back half of the pen. Remember, Stanek was Díaz's primary set-up man in the postseason last year, and he was a mop-up man in August and September. Things change quickly down there.
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The Mets swept the Rockies at home to finish a 7-2 homestand. New York, 37-22, retook first place in the National League East from the Phillies.
The Dodgers couldn't finish a sweep of the Yankees on Sunday night. Los Angeles is still in first in the NL West at 36-23.
The Rockies had a winless week after being swept by the Cubs and Mets. Their record is 9-50 as Colorado finishes its trip with three in Miami before a day off Thursday.
at Los Angeles
RHP Paul Blackburn (season debut) vs. RHP Dustin May (3-4, 4.20 ERA)
RHP Tylor Megill (4-4, 3.52) vs. RHP Ben Casparius (4-0, 2.72)
RHP Griffin Canning (5-2, 3.23) vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 4.91)
LHP David Peterson (4-2, 2.69) vs. RHP Tony Gonsolin (3-1, 5.23)
at Colorado
RHP Kodai Senga (6-3, 1.60) vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela (1-10, 7.14)
RHP Clay Holmes (6-3, 3.07) vs. LHP Carson Palmquist (0-4, 8.50)
RHP Tylor Megill vs. RHP Germán Márquez (1-7, 7.13)
A chart I made for fun:
Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL
• Blackburn is back after a lengthy rehab stint to make his season debut against the Dodgers on Monday night.
• Montas is two starts into what is likely to be a monthlong rehab assignment. The next time the Mets need a sixth starter is around June 23. Montas should be an option by then.
• Manaea hasn't started his rehab assignment, which is also likely to last about a month. So the first two weeks of July, just ahead of the All-Star break, look like the right time to expect Manaea.
• Jose Siri still hasn't gotten to 100 percent in his running progression. Manager Carlos Mendoza said Siri wasn't all that close to a return late last week.
Triple-A: Syracuse vs. Buffalo (Toronto)
Double-A: Binghamton vs. Somerset (New York, AL)
High-A: Brooklyn at Wilmington (Washington)
Low-A: St. Lucie vs. Dunedin (Toronto)
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• Inside the Mets' new outfield ritual, sparked by Juan Soto
• Brandon Nimmo on staying sane while hitting at Citi Field
• How Francisco Lindor leads
• The Mets' superpower as a pitching staff is limiting extra-base hits
That's right, I'm on a poetry kick. Reading Galway Kinnell for the first time, and have enjoyed both 'The Book of Nightmares' and 'Mortal Acts, Mortal Words.'
Garrett has a 0.70 ERA through 25 2/3 innings. Only two pitchers in Mets history have posted an ERA below 1.00 in more than 30 innings at the All-Star break. One is Kevin Kobel in 1978, whom I'll admit I had never heard of.
The other did it in 1984. He was a member of the '86 champion Mets, though he seldom pitched in games that team won. Who is it?
(I'll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)
(Photo of Clay Holmes pitching Sunday against the Rockies: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)