
Civilization collapse now 'inevitable' after chilling patterns in past empires are uncovered
Dr Luke Kemp of the University of Cambridge found inequality, environmental damage, reckless leaders and fragile systems lead to ancient collapse, and every warning sign is currently flashing.
' We can't put a date on Doomsday, but by looking at the 5,000 years of [civilization], we can understand the trajectories we face today, and self-termination is most likely,' he told the Guardian.
Kemp's new book, Goliath's Curse, details the rise and fall of ancient powers, including imperial China, Rome and the Classical Lowland Maya.
While those collapses were often regional and survivable, Kemp said the next one will be global, and devastating.
His research found that every fallen empire shared the same fatal traits, including top-heavy regimes dominated by elites, fueled by inequality and held together by violence.
He referred to these societies as 'Goliaths,' vast, brittle power structures built on hoarded grain, monopolized weapons and populations trapped in place with nowhere to run.
'History is best told as a story of organized crime,' Kemp said. 'It is one group creating a monopoly on resources through the use of violence over a certain territory and population.'
A research analyzed the rise and fall of more than 400 empires throughout history, uncovering alarming patterns that he said are visible today
Kemp analyzed the rise and fall of more than 400 societies, coming to the theory that inequality kills civilizations.
As elites extract wealth from the masses and destroy the environment, societies become hollow shells, vulnerable to war, disease and collapse.
And it's not simple greed driving the fall, he said, but a small number of individuals exhibiting the 'dark triad' of narcissism, psychopathy and Machiavellianism.
These toxic traits, found in past ruling classes, are now surfacing in global leadership, The Guardian reported.
Kemp named Donald Trump as the narcissist, Vladimir Putin as the psychopath, and Xi Jinping as the Machiavellian, claiming the most powerful leaders on Earth now embody the very traits that historically trigger collapse.
One of the most consistent red flags Kemp found through hundreds of collapsed societies was extreme inequality.
In ancient empires, wealth and power became concentrated among a small elite while the majority were left impoverished and burdened.
Kemp said today's widening wealth gap and corporate monopolies mirror that pattern, eroding social cohesion and weakening resilience.
Another alarming parallel was humanity's total dependence on complex, global systems.
In the past, people could return to hunting or farming when governments fell.
Now, most humans rely on fragile global supply chains, if they collapse, everything collapses, Kemp warned.
Environmental destruction was also following the same trajectory. Historical collapses were often preceded by regional climate shifts of just 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.
Scientists now project a global rise of 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit or more, along with massive deforestation and resource depletion.
Kemp also warned the next collapse could be far more violent as in the past, power struggles were fought with swords or muskets.
That is because the the modern world has more than 10,000 nuclear weapons, and far more destructive technology.
Kemp outlined three reasons why the next collapse could be far more devastating than anything humanity has faced before.
First is elite violence. In the past, power struggles were fought with swords or muskets. Today, world leaders have access to more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.
Second is our dependence on complex systems. Ancient populations could return to farming or hunting to survive.
But modern societies rely heavily on fragile global supply chains, if they fail, we fall with them, he shared.
Third is the scale of the threats themselves. Historical climate shifts typically involved a one-degree change.
While past collapses sometimes led to better conditions, healthier, taller, and freer populations after empire fell, Kemp warns that today's single, globalized system leaves nowhere to hide.
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