CBS News poll: Economy views better than winter, but Americans feel concern more than secure about finances
Summer begins with Americans' economy ratings continuing to get a bit brighter than they were this winter — though still not good — with their outlook more mixed. But feelings of financial concern and stress are more prevalent than feelings of being secure.
With a big majority still saying their incomes don't keep pace with inflation, prices and finances of course play a big role in how Americans decide what their summer plans will be. And that, too, helps define two different outlooks heading into the season.
Slightly more Americans say they'll take a vacation this summer than report taking one in 2024. Most likely to take a vacation are the just-over half who say they're at least doing OK financially and can keep up with expenses. (For the higher income earners among them especially, summer will also involve travel.)
But for those who say their finances are not good, it continues to be largely because of prices and incomes not keeping up with inflation. They're largely forgoing any vacation or travel.
In all, feelings about finances span a range and most report feeling things from stress and concern to security and optimism at least once in a while. But Americans describe feeling concern or stress even more often these days, rather than feeling secure or content. That's especially the case among those whose personal financial situation isn't good.
Ratings of the economy remain net-negative overall — this has been the case for years — but lately they have been ticking up off the dips they saw in late winter, February and March.
Outlook and direction remains mixed, and with more negativity than positivity. But relatively fewer today are planning as if the country is headed for outright recession, as said so last month; opinion has shifted toward expectations of a slowdown, but not recession.
In a different study consumer confidence was also reported to have rebounded lately.
Those in comparably lower income levels report feeling stress about finances more often. Stress and concern go up with feeling less secure in a job (for those employed.) Concern about monthly ability to pay for food and groceries is strongly associated with more frequent feelings of stress. Conversely, feelings of being secure or optimistic financially are linked to confidence in being able to save, buy extras and pay for the basics.
People for whom the stock market matters to their finances report less frequent feelings of stress. The market has had volatility over recent months, but those invested also have higher incomes, and report less concern about paying for day to day items to begin with.
Summer plans
As summer begins, one way Americans traditionally try to alleviate stress, of course, is a vacation or getaway. But access to that, too, splits on financial lines.
For the just over half of Americans who say their financial situation is good, most plan to take a vacation of some form this summer, and most of those will also involve travel.
For the bulk of people who do travel, summer means a road trip. It's far and away the main way they'll travel. (Though on balance, people who say their financial situation is bad say they'll take fewer car trips than last summer.)
Peoples' assessment of the direction of gas prices is mixed and not very different than it was in March.
Americans are more likely to expect their summer to be exciting rather than boring. And yet, for all the attention it gets, summer doesn't rate as Americans' favorite season. That's fall.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,216 U.S. adults interviewed between May 26-29, 2025. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.6 points.
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Trump tariffs live updates: Trump says he will set unilateral tariff rates within weeks
President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he would send letters to trading partners in the next week or two setting unilateral tariff rates. 'At a certain point, we're just going to send letters out. And I think you understand that, saying this is the deal, you can take it or leave it,' the president said at the Kennedy Center in Washington. Soon after introducing steep new tariffs that roiled markets, Trump instituted a pause on his most punishing duties that expires July 9. His latest comment, however, only muddies the waters about what could happen next as the deadline approaches. Earlier on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Congress that it is "highly likely" that the tariff pause would be extended for countries that are negotiating with the administration "in good faith." "There are 18 important trading partners — we are working toward deals on those — and it is highly likely that those countries that are ... negotiating in good faith, we will roll the date forward," Bessent said during testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee. On Tuesday, the US and China agreed to a framework and implementation plan to ease tariff and trade tensions. Trump signaled his approval, saying the deal was "done" pending sign-off from him and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump and other US officials indicated the deal should resolve issues between the two countries on rare earths and magnets, though reports later indicated China would only loosen restrictions on rare earth mineral exports for a six-month period. Trump also said the US will allow Chinese students in US colleges, a sticking point that had emerged in the weeks following the countries' mid-May deal in Geneva. Trump said the US would impose a total of 55% tariffs on Chinese goods. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports, citing a White House official, that Trump arrived at that figure by adding together an array of preexisting duties and not any new tariffs. Meanwhile, though Trump's most sweeping tariffs continue to face legal uncertainty, on Tuesday, the president received a favorable update. A federal appeals court held a decision saying his tariffs can temporarily stay in effect. The US Court of International Trade had blocked their implementation last month, deeming the method used to enact them "unlawful." Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told House lawmakers on Wednesday that the Trump administration may extend the 90-day tariff pause on some countries in order to continue trade negotiations. When asked if Americans should prepare for another "Liberation Day" on July 9, when the tariff pause ends for most countries, Bessent said that the administration may choose to move the deadline on 18 of the most important trading partners, so long as they make an effort to come to the negotiating table. "We are working toward deals on those, and it is highly likely that [for] those countries — or trading blocs, in the case of the EU — who are negotiating in good faith, we will roll the day forward to continue good faith negotiations," Bessent said (see video below). "If someone is not negotiating, then we will not." A recent report on the drastic decline of US ocean imports serves as an example of how President Trump's increased tariffs on China affected supply chains and several industries as ttalks continue. Reuters reports: Read more here. The Treasury Department says that the US government is successfully using tariffs to decrease the budget deficit by more than $30 billion, largely due to increased customs receipts. Reuters reports: Read more here. China will ease curbs on exports of rare earth minerals for six months as part of a new trade understanding with the US, according to The Wall Street Journal. The move could add more uncertainty for American manufacturers, particularly the auto industry, which has been pushing for easier access. The Journal notes that the move gives China leverage down the line if tensions ratchet back up. From the report: In celebrating the agreement early Wednesday, President Trump noted "any necessary rare earths will be supplied, up front, by China." He did not mention any time limit on loosening those restrictions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in testimony before Congress on Wednesday, painted Wednesday's agreement as an incremental step on the longer road to a more comprehensive trade deal. "A trade deal today or last night was for a specific goal, and it will be a much longer process," he told a House committee. When asked if current US tariff levels on Chinese imports would not change again, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC, "You can definitely say that." "We're in a great place with China," Lutnick said Wednesday. While the US-China truce framework is awaiting final word from US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Lutnick added, "Both sides are really positive." The agreement is largely viewed as reestablishing the "handshake" that US and Chinese officials reached in Geneva last month, as details on a larger trade pact remain scant. Trump posted on social media this morning that the US has imposed 55% tariffs on China, a number that does not include any new tariffs but instead comprises some preexisting tariffs, Trump's fentanyl tariffs, and 10% "Liberation Day" tariffs. Lutnick touted that, as a result of the two-day talks, the US will gain access to rare earths and magnets, while the Chinese delegation sought to remove the US's export controls. He added that the trade deficit remains an ongoing issue, stating, "We're going to examine how China can do more business with us." May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation pressures eased on a monthly basis despite investor concerns that President Trump's tariffs would accelerate the pace of price increases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% on a monthly basis in May and 2.4% on an annual basis, a slight uptick from April's 2.3% gain. Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports: Read more here. I would keep an eye on consumer names off the news of a trade deal with China floated by President Trump this morning (see our prior post below). Seeing upticks premarket in heavily China-exposed retailers such as Nike (NKE), Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The premarket gains here aren't mind-blowing in part because tariffs appear to still be in place. Trump posted on Truth Social: OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!" A variety of market observers quickly weighed in hours after Tuesday evening's unveiling to suggest that the deal may not have a lot of meat on the bones — but at least relations are no longer moving in the wrong direction. The talks perhaps underscored how unlikely a comprehensive trade deal is anytime soon, noted AGF Investments Greg Valliere, "but at least relations may not worsen as talks continue throughout the summer." Both sides promised additional talks in the weeks or months ahead, but none have yet been scheduled. Veronique de Rugy, a professor at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, suggested the talks continued to show China's leverage. "China is hurting, yes—but they still hold the upper hand on critical resources, and they know how to use them." Any lessening of tensions — and freer flow — of these mineral resources in China would be a significant boost to the global economy with China holding outsized leverage in both the reserves and processing capacity of these key building blocks for everything from computers to electric vehicle batteries to medical devices. Likewise, the US offering concessions on export controls would be a significant move after years where successive US administrations have wielded these controls — especially around the design and manufacture of semiconductors — by saying they need to be tight on China for national security reasons. Read more here. May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on Wednesday and its expected to show that prices rose a bit faster than in April. Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal breaks down what to look out for and how President Trump's tariffs are impacting what consumers are now paying for goods and services. Read more here. Now that the US-China trade truce is back on track, both sides are keen to ensure it stays that way. China's Vice Premier He Lifeng said both sides need to now 'show the spirit of good faith in abiding by their commitments and jointly safeguard the hard-won results of the dialogue.' Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Despite the US-China trade truce resuming the pain from President Trump's tariffs remains in China, especially among small exporters. Reuters reports: Read more here. Japan warned Wednesday that tariffs threaten its economic growth, the government said in a monthly report. Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. A federal appeals could said on Tuesday that President Trump's sweeping tariffs can continue for now. This is a significant win for Trump, who introduced tariffs back in March and declared "Liberation Day," as he saw them as a way to free the US from what he called unfair trade practices. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Early summer sales for Inditex, the owner of fashion retailer Zara, came in weaker, as the company missed expectations for first quarter sales on Wednesday. President Trump's tariffs have impacted consumer demand in the US and other major markets. Reuters reports: Read more here. After weeks of back and forth, the US and China have agreed on a framework to implement the Geneva consensus that helped ease tariffs. The breakthrough came after two days of talks in London, including a marathon session on Tuesday. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said both sides had to "get the negativity out" before making progress. 'Now we can go forward to try to do positive trade, growing trade,' he said. As part of the deal, Beijing has promised to speed up shipments of rare earth metals, a crucial component for global auto and defense industries. Washington will ease export controls. This marks the first sign of movement on key issues. The proposal will now be presented to President Trump and China's Xi. Still, the discussions also did little to resolve a long-standing issue: China's trade surplus with the US. 'Markets will likely welcome the shift from confrontation to coordination,' said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. 'We're not out of the woods yet — it's up to Trump and Xi to approve and enforce the deal.' The meeting was set up after a phone call between the two leaders, following weeks of each side accusing the other of breaking the Geneva commitments. Both countries had used chips, rare earths, student visas and ethane as bargaining tools. Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor at East China Normal University, said trust, not money, has been the biggest casualty of the trade war. 'We've heard a lot about frameworks,' he said. 'But the fundamental issue remains: Chips versus rare earths. Everything else is a peacock dance.' Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told House lawmakers on Wednesday that the Trump administration may extend the 90-day tariff pause on some countries in order to continue trade negotiations. When asked if Americans should prepare for another "Liberation Day" on July 9, when the tariff pause ends for most countries, Bessent said that the administration may choose to move the deadline on 18 of the most important trading partners, so long as they make an effort to come to the negotiating table. "We are working toward deals on those, and it is highly likely that [for] those countries — or trading blocs, in the case of the EU — who are negotiating in good faith, we will roll the day forward to continue good faith negotiations," Bessent said (see video below). "If someone is not negotiating, then we will not." A recent report on the drastic decline of US ocean imports serves as an example of how President Trump's increased tariffs on China affected supply chains and several industries as ttalks continue. Reuters reports: Read more here. The Treasury Department says that the US government is successfully using tariffs to decrease the budget deficit by more than $30 billion, largely due to increased customs receipts. Reuters reports: Read more here. China will ease curbs on exports of rare earth minerals for six months as part of a new trade understanding with the US, according to The Wall Street Journal. The move could add more uncertainty for American manufacturers, particularly the auto industry, which has been pushing for easier access. The Journal notes that the move gives China leverage down the line if tensions ratchet back up. From the report: In celebrating the agreement early Wednesday, President Trump noted "any necessary rare earths will be supplied, up front, by China." He did not mention any time limit on loosening those restrictions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in testimony before Congress on Wednesday, painted Wednesday's agreement as an incremental step on the longer road to a more comprehensive trade deal. "A trade deal today or last night was for a specific goal, and it will be a much longer process," he told a House committee. When asked if current US tariff levels on Chinese imports would not change again, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC, "You can definitely say that." "We're in a great place with China," Lutnick said Wednesday. While the US-China truce framework is awaiting final word from US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Lutnick added, "Both sides are really positive." The agreement is largely viewed as reestablishing the "handshake" that US and Chinese officials reached in Geneva last month, as details on a larger trade pact remain scant. Trump posted on social media this morning that the US has imposed 55% tariffs on China, a number that does not include any new tariffs but instead comprises some preexisting tariffs, Trump's fentanyl tariffs, and 10% "Liberation Day" tariffs. Lutnick touted that, as a result of the two-day talks, the US will gain access to rare earths and magnets, while the Chinese delegation sought to remove the US's export controls. He added that the trade deficit remains an ongoing issue, stating, "We're going to examine how China can do more business with us." May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation pressures eased on a monthly basis despite investor concerns that President Trump's tariffs would accelerate the pace of price increases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% on a monthly basis in May and 2.4% on an annual basis, a slight uptick from April's 2.3% gain. Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports: Read more here. I would keep an eye on consumer names off the news of a trade deal with China floated by President Trump this morning (see our prior post below). Seeing upticks premarket in heavily China-exposed retailers such as Nike (NKE), Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The premarket gains here aren't mind-blowing in part because tariffs appear to still be in place. Trump posted on Truth Social: OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!" A variety of market observers quickly weighed in hours after Tuesday evening's unveiling to suggest that the deal may not have a lot of meat on the bones — but at least relations are no longer moving in the wrong direction. The talks perhaps underscored how unlikely a comprehensive trade deal is anytime soon, noted AGF Investments Greg Valliere, "but at least relations may not worsen as talks continue throughout the summer." Both sides promised additional talks in the weeks or months ahead, but none have yet been scheduled. Veronique de Rugy, a professor at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, suggested the talks continued to show China's leverage. "China is hurting, yes—but they still hold the upper hand on critical resources, and they know how to use them." Any lessening of tensions — and freer flow — of these mineral resources in China would be a significant boost to the global economy with China holding outsized leverage in both the reserves and processing capacity of these key building blocks for everything from computers to electric vehicle batteries to medical devices. Likewise, the US offering concessions on export controls would be a significant move after years where successive US administrations have wielded these controls — especially around the design and manufacture of semiconductors — by saying they need to be tight on China for national security reasons. Read more here. May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on Wednesday and its expected to show that prices rose a bit faster than in April. Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal breaks down what to look out for and how President Trump's tariffs are impacting what consumers are now paying for goods and services. Read more here. Now that the US-China trade truce is back on track, both sides are keen to ensure it stays that way. China's Vice Premier He Lifeng said both sides need to now 'show the spirit of good faith in abiding by their commitments and jointly safeguard the hard-won results of the dialogue.' Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Despite the US-China trade truce resuming the pain from President Trump's tariffs remains in China, especially among small exporters. Reuters reports: Read more here. Japan warned Wednesday that tariffs threaten its economic growth, the government said in a monthly report. Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. A federal appeals could said on Tuesday that President Trump's sweeping tariffs can continue for now. This is a significant win for Trump, who introduced tariffs back in March and declared "Liberation Day," as he saw them as a way to free the US from what he called unfair trade practices. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Early summer sales for Inditex, the owner of fashion retailer Zara, came in weaker, as the company missed expectations for first quarter sales on Wednesday. President Trump's tariffs have impacted consumer demand in the US and other major markets. Reuters reports: Read more here. After weeks of back and forth, the US and China have agreed on a framework to implement the Geneva consensus that helped ease tariffs. The breakthrough came after two days of talks in London, including a marathon session on Tuesday. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said both sides had to "get the negativity out" before making progress. 'Now we can go forward to try to do positive trade, growing trade,' he said. As part of the deal, Beijing has promised to speed up shipments of rare earth metals, a crucial component for global auto and defense industries. Washington will ease export controls. This marks the first sign of movement on key issues. The proposal will now be presented to President Trump and China's Xi. Still, the discussions also did little to resolve a long-standing issue: China's trade surplus with the US. 'Markets will likely welcome the shift from confrontation to coordination,' said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. 'We're not out of the woods yet — it's up to Trump and Xi to approve and enforce the deal.' The meeting was set up after a phone call between the two leaders, following weeks of each side accusing the other of breaking the Geneva commitments. Both countries had used chips, rare earths, student visas and ethane as bargaining tools. Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor at East China Normal University, said trust, not money, has been the biggest casualty of the trade war. 'We've heard a lot about frameworks,' he said. 'But the fundamental issue remains: Chips versus rare earths. Everything else is a peacock dance.' Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Elon Musk Just Backed Warren Buffett's 3-Word Fix for the Deficit. Would It Work?
The U.S. deficit topped $1.8 trillion in 2024, but a bold idea from Warren Buffett is making the rounds again, and this time, Elon Musk is getting behind it. In a 2011 CNBC interview, Buffett said he could end the deficit "in five minutes" by passing a law that disqualifies all sitting members of Congress from re-election if the deficit exceeds 3% of GDP. That clip recently resurfaced on social media, reigniting debate over government accountability—and catching the attention of Musk. He responded to Lee: "100%. This is the way." Moneywise reported that the proposal got a push from Utah Senator Mike Lee, who's now drafting a constitutional amendment inspired by Buffett's logic. Lee's version adds another twist: members of Congress would be ousted whenever inflation climbs above 3%. Buffett's plan might sound extreme, but based on recent numbers, it would be career-ending for nearly every lawmaker on Capitol Hill. The 2024 deficit hit 6.3% of GDP, which is double the threshold. Of course, critics were quick to point out the obvious flaw in the setup. Congress would need to vote to fire itself, making the law politically toxic. Even so, the idea is tapping into deep frustration with government spending. Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman once said, "Only Washington can create money," and warned that unchecked spending leads to inflation. Musk's endorsement, paired with Lee's amendment effort, has amplified the conversation online. Some supporters argue that even if the proposal never passes, it forces lawmakers to confront the consequences of fiscal irresponsibility. Others see it as more political theater than policy. While the odds of Congress passing a law that threatens its own job security are slim to none, the Buffett-Musk-Lee alignment has given the concept a second wind. For now, the public can only vote the traditional way. But the viral resurgence of this three-word fix—'fire the incumbents'—shows Americans are still searching for accountability where it matters Musk Just Backed Warren Buffett's 3-Word Fix for the Deficit. Would It Work? first appeared on Men's Journal on Jun 12, 2025
Yahoo
23 minutes ago
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Trump wants to sell America to China – but will they buy?
On Wednesday, a jubilant Donald Trump declared that his trade deal with Beijing would 'open up China to American Trade', delivering 'a great WIN for both countries!!!' Yet even as the US president trumpets victory, a chorus of Western companies has been warning that the spoils may be underwhelming. Cosmetics company Estee Lauder is grappling with 'retail softness, reflecting subdued consumer sentiment' in China. Drinks giant Diageo, which makes Guinness and Johnnie Walker, said 'consumers remain cautious and the macroeconomic recovery is taking longer than expected'. Unilever, the consumer goods giant behind Dove soap and Ben & Jerry's ice cream, told its shareholders that 'market growth in China remained subdued'. Burberry reported waning sales there, while KFC and Pizza Hut-owner Yum China said sales in the first quarter were flat. When Starbucks this week slashed the price of its tea lattes and Frappuccinos in China by almost one fifth, it was only the latest sign that trouble was brewing in China for big Western businesses. Trump wants Chinese consumers to buy more American goods, rebalancing what he sees as the lopsided trading relationship between the two countries. But the middle kingdom's economy is in a prolonged funk, reeling from a property crisis and a long hangover from harsh Covid restrictions. With lingering US tariffs of up to 55pc taking a chunk out of China's exports, recovery in the world's second-largest economy depends on the willingness of Chinese consumers to open their wallets and start spending. But unless companies cut prices, or the government steps in to boost demand, cautious Chinese consumers are at best spending selectively. Unlike China's gleaming motorways, the road to an economic rebound looks slow and uncertain – meaning Trump may well be disappointed. Ending the US president's anti-China crusade depends on the Chinese consumer taking out their wallets. It's the 'excess savings' of China's households, coupled with the excess spending of the American government and consumers, that lie at the heart of the pair's unbalanced economic relationship. In layman's terms, Chinese families save, while Americans buy – meaning China exports to the US far more than it imports. 'China has a singular opportunity to stabilise its economy by shifting away from excess production towards greater consumption,' Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, said on Wednesday. So far, there is little sign of the balance shifting. In a recent survey by McKinsey, Chinese households said they were not planning to increase how much they spend as a share of their income. (McKinsey saw this as progress; in the 2024 version of the survey, households had actually been planning to reduce consumption.) The survey found that rural dwellers were slightly more enthusiastic about shopping than their urban counterparts. That's unsurprising: it's in the cities where the scars of the property crisis, which began with the collapse of the developer Evergrande in 2021, are most acute. 'Property prices have fallen by around 20pc since the onset of the property crisis,' says Leah Fahy, a China analyst at Capital Economics. 'That has been a massive hit to household wealth and really dampened propensity to spend, and confidence as well.' 'And then more recently, you add all this tension around the trade war, what's going to happen with US tariffs. Even if the actual hit from that hasn't been massive yet.' Justin Koh, a Shanghai-based director at consultancy AlixPartners, says: 'When I first came to China about 15 years ago, there used to be an idea that everything would only go in one direction – up. People just thought sales would double every year. 'Now, the consumer companies we're working with are more pragmatic about growth. They're also very pragmatic about opening and closing stores, about what works and what doesn't work in the market.' Officially, China's economy is holding up, growing at 5.4pc in the first quarter from a year earlier. But the threat of a trade war looms over a country that still relies heavily on manufacturing. Exports to the US slumped by almost 35pc in April from a year earlier and China is struggling with deflation. Consumer prices dipped 0.1pc, the fourth consecutive month of decline, led by food and fuel. A survey by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China found that 83pc of food and beverage companies felt their business environment in the country was deteriorating. Many consumers seem to be looking for bargains, waiting for price decreases, or keeping their yuan in the bank or under the bed. Beijing has been encouraging people to spend, pushing them to buy more white goods by backing a trade-in scheme. It seems to have worked: according to the Xinhua news agency, it spurred 175bn renminbi (£18bn) of transactions this year, and 39pc year–on-year sales growth in April. But that would only be a drop in the ocean of what is required. It might stack a percentage point or two on to GDP growth, but Capital Economics reckons consumption might need to expand by 4pc to offset the hit from falling exports. Fahy says the government seems reluctant to wheel out the fiscal artillery needed to deliver this. 'You get a lot of lip service to the importance of supporting consumption, supporting demand, but they're really hesitant to expand things like social security measures, pension payments, welfare benefits – the things that are most needed to boost households' willingness to spend really and lower the savings rate,' she says. Worryingly for Trump, even if there is an upturn in consumer spending, Chinese may not choose to buy American products. 'There was probably more bargain hunting back in 2022, 2023 – confidence was lower, there was a very clear dip,' says Koh. 'I think this bargain-hunting helped consumers understand other [non-Western] brands a little bit better – they realised that, 'Hey, there might not be that much of a difference there.'' Chinese business news site Caixin says there has been an increase in promotions for 'repatriated foreign trade products' – items originally made to sell overseas that are now being sold at home. This includes marketing campaigns and exhibitions at supermarkets, department stores and shopping malls. Local brands are also gaining ground. Koh's 10-year-old daughter is wild for the Labubu dolls made by Chinese start-up Pop Mart, for example. 'They're the latest craze. If consumer confidence was at an all-time low, we'd likely be seeing less people buying them – less of that type of consumer behaviour,' he says. 'It's a sign of a more discerning consumer, and a consumer that's expressing his or her consumer confidence in different ways.' The ball is now in Beijing's court: the government needs to do more if it wants a consumer-led kickstart for the economy, and a fix for the US-China trade imbalances. Without action, Trump's 'great WIN' may turn into a disappointing loss. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
