Can Elections Solve The Problem? A Long-Term View Of Developments In Bangladesh

News18

17-07-2025

Recent events cast doubt on Yunus's sincerity, suggesting he may have announced the polls merely to cling to power, making a wait-and-watch approach the best policy.
With the government of Mohammad Yunus in Bangladesh announcing elections scheduled to be held in April 2026, the chief advisor has relieved himself from pressure from the Army and political parties. However, this does not imply that the differences between Yunus and the Army, particularly, have vanished. After all, it was the Army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman who recently signalled clearly that the interim government should conduct polls in Bangladesh by the end of the year.
Recent events cast doubt on Yunus's sincerity, suggesting he may have announced the polls merely to cling to power, making a wait-and-watch approach the best policy. Additionally, the presence of the United States in Bangladesh raises more questions than answers. A long-term view of Bangladesh reveals pervasive instability in the landscape. Even if elections are held, the outcome is likely to be confusing, and the new government will take time to settle down.
Differences between the Army and the Yunus administration in Bangladesh have been festering for some time now. They are now out in the open. The Army wants a quick restoration of democracy in Bangladesh through the conduct of elections. Another issue is the 'humanitarian corridor' proposed by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres during his visit in February. While the chief advisor and his NSA Khalilur Rahman support it, the services led by the Army chief have resisted the idea. This is where the US comes into play. Teams of State Department and military personnel have been flying into Dhaka to set up camps from which aid and assistance would be sent to the Arakan Army in its fight against the Myanmar Army. The arrival of an advance USAF team in Dhaka (9 May 2025) has set the cat among the pigeons in Bangladesh.
Army Chief Orders Overturned by Yunus
One of the issues over which the Army chief and chief advisor have differed is the latter's interference in the internal affairs of the army. This also arose on account of the US-backed 'humanitarian corridor' from Bangladesh into the Rakhine state in Myanmar. Some time back, the Army chief tried to remove Lt. Gen. Kamrul Hassan, Principal Staff Officer in the Armed Forces Division (AFD), which works directly under Chief Adviser Mohammad Yunus. But Yunus blocked the Army chief's order with the US Charge d'Affaires standing by the chief adviser. Gen. Hassan even visited the US Embassy in Dhaka for discussions over the proposed 'humanitarian corridor' which Bangladesh intends to use to help civilians in the Rakhine State and arm the Arakan Army in its operations against the Myanmar Army.
What actually happened was that on 11 May, Gen Zaman was forced to cancel a scheduled official trip to Honolulu, Hawaii, on the orders of chief advisor Yunus. That same day, Lt. Gen. Hassan met with Tracey Ann Jacobson in Dhaka, where the two were closeted for nearly two hours. That very day, Gen. Zaman moved to remove Lt. Gen. Hassan for taking a divergent view on the 'humanitarian corridor" to Myanmar.
Politics Over the 'Humanitarian Corridor'
The reason Gen. Zaman wanted action taken against Hassan was that the latter was in favour of the 'humanitarian corridor' as opposed to the stance taken by the three service chiefs. The proposed humanitarian corridor was discussed during UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' March visit to Dhaka and aims to channel UN-led aid through Bangladesh into Rakhine State. The initiative, if it takes off, will provide a lifeline to starving civilians and create conditions for the eventual repatriation of Rohingya refugees, a long-standing goal for Dhaka. Md Touhid Hossain, the Foreign Adviser, has said that Bangladesh's support for the corridor is conditional on the creation of a 'conducive environment" for the distribution of aid, signalling an awareness of the risks given the fragile situation in the region.
On 16 May, a late-night meeting was held between the three service chiefs and Khalilur Rahman, National Security Adviser (NSA). Rahman, a US citizen, strongly supports the corridor. The three service chiefs, Army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman, Air Chief Marshal Hasan Mahmood Khan, and Navy chief Admiral Mohammad Nazmul Hassan, have strong reservations. Khalilur Rahman also kept the US CDA Ann Jacobson in the loop.
Media reports indicate that the US Embassy in Dhaka is not the only place active, but its officers have been regularly meeting with Bangladesh Army officers in the context of the humanitarian corridor. Notably, on 23 March 2025, Brig. Gen. Amin of the O&P Directorate met a three-member team of US officials led by the Embassy's Military Attaché, Lt. Col. Michael E De Michiei, Lt. Col. Hunter Gallacher (from the Office of Defence Cooperation), and Major Ian Leonard at the AFD. Significantly, the Directorate of Operations and Plans, which identified the corridor functions directly under the AFD headed by Lt. Gen. Kamrul Hassan.
NSA Rahman Pushing US Line
Just how far the US has moved in the direction of supporting the Arakan Army became evident when, in the third week of March, under NSA Khalilur Rahman's orders, two trucks from the 10th Infantry Division moved into the Rakhine State, near positions held by Myanmar's junta forces. Their mission was to supply weapons to the Arakan Army. However, when junta forces opened artillery fire, the soldiers of the 10th Infantry Division were forced to abort the mission and retreat. This was followed by the arrival (10 May) of the advance team of USAF and State Department officials, who received cargo bound for Teknaf, from where the operation to supply the Arakan Army will be staged.
Back to the Present
Political parties in Bangladesh have expressed apprehensions over the April 2026 election schedule announced by Mohammad Yunus. The Awami League says the announcement of the date is a 'ruse' to ease pressure on the interim government, while the Bangladesh National Party has said it did not meet the aspirations of the people. This may just be rhetoric, but the very act of announcing the elections may have been inspired by the US and suits the domestic compulsions of Yunus. For the Army chief, the challenge is to play the balancing act while ensuring that his own position remains strong. Lack of strong governance and the poor law and order situation are making things difficult for Yunus. The downturn in textile and garment manufacturing is hurting the economy. In this situation, chief advisor Yunus has little to show. Merely clinging to power in the absence of genuine reform makes it a ready recipe for disaster.
top videos
View all
It is into this situation that the US has jumped in. But its interests, while remaining clear on supporting Yunus, also aim for the current dispensation to follow its lead on the humanitarian corridor and extend support to the Arakan Army. The danger is that Washington is also playing with fire by creating dissension within the Bangladesh Army. This has implications for internal stability and cohesiveness within the military. The fallout of any such action within Bangladesh will have an impact on regional security and India. That is why these developments merit attention and careful scrutiny. As chief adviser Yunus balances the US and armed forces, he faces an uphill task in maintaining stability in the country.
The writer is Consultant, MP-IDSA and a former director, national security council secretariat. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18's views.
tags :
bangladesh Muhammad Yunus
Location :
New Delhi, India, India
First Published:
July 07, 2025, 15:41 IST
News opinion Opinion | Can Elections Solve The Problem? A Long-Term View Of Developments In Bangladesh