'Don't drown': Timeline of the Guadalupe River flooding disaster

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7 days ago

In the early days of July, pieces of weather systems were converging to create a disaster over Texas Hill Country that would transform the Guadalupe River into a monster raging out of its banks in the pre-dawn hours of July 4, claiming the lives of more than 129 people. At least 160 are still missing.
The hours leading up to the tragedy, and the actions taken to protect the lives of those in the water's hellish fury, are critical to understanding what happened and whether more could have been done in the name of safety. Through a National Weather Service messaging service with emergency management officials and broadcast meteorologists, U.S. Geological Survey data and other records, USA TODAY has pieced together a timeline of the calamity on the Guadalupe.
As early as July 1, the National Weather Service began warning of the potential for heavy rains. Bits of Tropical Storm Barry, which dissipated over eastern Mexico on June 30 but were still loaded with rain after their journey over the warm Bay of Campeche, were moving into Texas. Tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, which has been cranking out storms this summer, also was moving into the region.
By July 2, the weather service began warning that Hill Country could continue to see showers and isolated storms "well into Friday morning."
In the end, a terrible deluge, greater than anyone expected, fell over the steep hills and rugged terrain, delivering up to 20 inches of rain over three days in some parts of the region. In the headwaters of the Guadalupe River, where its North and South forks converge west of Hunt, Texas, the rain flowed down hills and rushed into the river, surprising homeowners, campers and vacationers.
"It's hard to believe the devastation," President Donald Trump said Friday as he visited the flooded region.
"We are grieving with you," said First Lady Melania. "Our nation is grieving with you."
The geological survey maintains gauges in the river that track the surface height of the water. Even though the reported measurements are still considered preliminary, they provide the clearest picture of the river's explosive rise. Here are the hours leading up to the disaster:
Slow-moving convective storms may rain over and over in the same location and cause flash flooding in the Hill Country region of Texas, advises the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center.
Weather service meteorologists join a Zoom call with more than a dozen state and local emergency management officials to discuss the rain and forecast. It isn't known whether Kerr County officials were on the call.
What Texas cities flooded? Here's where the most rain fell over the Independence Day weekend
Storms are increasingly blanketing south-central Texas, says the weather service office in Austin/San Antonio, adding it's "closely monitoring for the potential of locally heavy rain today and tonight."
The weather service says it will issue a flood watch for parts of South Central Texas, including Hill Country and the Rio Grande, because of the "abundant tropical moisture in place and the potential for heavy rain this afternoon into the evening and into the overnight hours."
A Flood Watch through 7 a.m. is posted on the weather service office Facebook page, for western Hill Country, the Rio Grande and the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. The plateau is an elevated region formed from marine deposits such as limestone and sandstone when the area was covered by an ocean some 100 million years ago.
Moments earlier, the Texas Division of Emergency Management posted a news release on Facebook, announcing it had activated its emergency operations center and adding resources ahead of expected heavy rainfall and flash flooding threats over the holiday weekend.
In a weather discussion, the prediction center says it's seeing "concerning trends for back-building and training thunderstorms" over the Texas Hill Country that could produce more than 3 inches of rain an hour, thanks to a bit of Barry's leftover circulation. High levels of moisture, a "quite unstable" atmosphere, and a jet of winds could all contribute to heavier rain.
Given the prolific rainfall potential, the weather service says "locally considerable flash flooding this evening is possible."
In response to a request from Bexar County, the weather service says some models bring moderate to heavy rain across the northwest part of the Bexar, while others keep the activity over the southern Edwards Plateau. Moments later, the weather service says it expects shower and thunderstorm activity to increase over the next 3 to 4 hours , with some models suggesting the heaviest rain potential across the southern portion of the plateau.
In Kerrville, one of the gauges in the Guadalupe River first begins to detect a slight rise in the water level.
In an "URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED," the weather service expands the flood watch to Bexar, Kendall, Gillespie and Llano counties through 7 a.m. on July 4, and says isolated amounts of 5 to 7 inches of rain are possible.
"Pockets of heavy rain are affecting Kendall County and then heading to parts of Gillespie and Blanco Counties," the weather service states, which could add to the 1 to 2 inches that have fallen over some areas in 3 hours.
A flood advisory posts for Bandera County, Kerr County's neighbor to the south, after 1 to 2 inches of rain, with additional rainfall moving in.
Weather service upgrades to a flash flood warning for Bandera County because it's seeing rain potential of 5 to 7 inches near Tarpley. Soon after, a rain gauge near Tarpley shows 2.68 inches of rain in 45 minutes.
Areas of flash flooding will be likely across Central Texas overnight with "very heavy rainfall" expected, with hourly rainfall in excess of 2 to 3 inches and six-hour totals over 6 inches, the Weather Prediction Center announces. It warns of "training" (rain in the same place again and again) over Bandera and San Saba counties, and southeast of San Angelo. "These areas of heavy rainfall are expected to result in a few areas of flash flooding through the overnight, some of which may become locally significant."
Storms are beginning to merge over central Kerr County and will be an area to watch for potential flash flooding, the weather service says.
The Guadalupe River at a gauge above Bear Creek near Kerrville begins to rise. The weather service issues "a Flash Flood Warning" for northwest Bandera County into central Kerr County.
The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe River at Hunt, Texas shows the river's flow increasing and water height creeping upward. The water rises about a tenth of a foot in 25 minutes.
The USGS gauge on Guadalupe at Kerrville has risen 6 inches in 2.5 hours, reaching a height of .84 feet at the gauge.
Rain rates have increased across south-central Kerr County, with an estimated 2 to 4 inches of rain so far, the weather service says. "Flooding is likely to begin in the warned area if it hasn't already." " It advises officials and broadcast meteorologists to push the reminder "Turn Around, Don't Drown," especially in the hills at night, when it is harder to recognize the depth of the water over a road.
The Guadalupe gauge at Hunt shows a rise of .84 feet in an hour. Its flow in cubic feet per second is 30 times faster.
The radar estimates 2 to 5 inches of rain has fallen in south-central Kerr County, the weather service says. "Flash flooding has likely begun."
At the River Inn Resort in Hunt, Texas, the manager wakes up Randy and Mollie Schaffer, banging on their door and telling them to evacuate immediately because the river is "about to overflow its banks," Randy Schaffer wrote later in a Facebook post. (The Schaffers evacuated but their SUV was swept into the current. He escaped the raging waters, but lost his beloved Mollie.)
At the gauge near Hunt, the Guadalupe has risen 6.29 feet in two hours. Water flow is 1,000 times faster.
A downstream flood warning will be issued for the Guadalupe River at Kerrville, and a flash flood warning for south-central Kerr and northwest Bandera extended until 7 a.m., the weather service says. It's issued at 3:33 a.m. "Again, this is a very dangerous flash flood event unfolding."
The latest river forecast takes Guadalupe at Hunt to "major flood stage," the weather service says.
Eight minutes later, at 4:04 a.m., the service upgrades the Flash Flood Warning to a Flash Flood Emergency.
Meanwhile the Guadalupe above Bear Creek also begins to transform, rising six inches in three hours.
Screams wake Kolton Taylor at Camp La Junta on the Guadalupe. He climbs from his bed into knee-high floodwaters that soon become waist-high. He later tells his mother, Janet Davis, he hears sounds "he won't ever forget."
Weather service radar estimates a swath of 5 to 10 inches of rain has fallen in 3 to 6 hours across south-central Kerr County, with 7.85 inches measured just upstream of the community of Hunt. "This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION and a Flash Flood EMERGENCY is in effect through 7 AM," the weather service warns.
The Guadalupe River's flow at the USGS gauge near Hunt has grown from 9 cubic feet per second at 1:20 a.m. to 72,100 cubic feet per second, pushing the river 17 feet higher.
The heaviest rainfall begins to shift north in Kerr County and the weather service says it will issue a flood advisory for southwest Gillespie County.
The Guadalupe rises sharply and reaches its 2nd highest height on record near Hunt, higher than a terrible deadly flood in July 1987, the weather service says. "This flood wave will continue downstream through Kerrville and Comfort. This is a very dangerous and life-threatening flood event along the Guadalupe River!"
Minutes later, the West Gulf River Forecast Center upgrades its forecast for the river to crest at 34 feet at Hunt, near its record height at that gauge, set in 1932 at 36.6 feet.
The measuring gauge at Hunt sends its last reading before being submerged, showing the water level rose from a height of 7.69 to 37.52 feet in less than 4 hours.
Downstream on the Guadalupe, the gauge at Kerrville has risen a foot. It will rise 3.5 feet in the next 14 minutes and more than 7 feet in 30 minutes.
The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe at Bear Creek shows a rise of 9 feet in an hour.
The Kerrville Police Department posts on Facebook ***FLOOD ALERT***. It states the weather service reports record high water in Hunt and that anyone near the Guadalupe River "needs to move to higher ground now."
After talking with emergency management officials, the weather service says it will issue a Flash Flood Emergency for the Guadalupe River from Hunt through Kerrville and down to Center Point. "This will allow for wireless emergency alerts of cell phones for residents and campers along the river. This is a very dangerous and potentially deadly flood wave moving down the river."
High water rescues are ongoing along the Guadalupe River and South Fork of the Guadalupe River in Hunt, with people on roof tops, local emergency officials tell the weather service.
The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe at Kerrville shows the river has risen 24.2 feet in one hour.
The Kerr County Sheriff's Office posts on Facebook: 'DANGEROUS FLOODING NOW on the Guadalupe River in Hunt.'
Widespread rain, some heavy, continues falling across Hill Country, with a flash flood emergency ongoing for south-central Kerry County. "Continue to push for people to move to higher ground if they are along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County! Otherwise avoid travel through the county," the weather service says.
The sun rises in Kerrville, Texas, allowing flood victims still clinging to trees and debris to begin seeing the full devastating destruction around them.
A rain gauge on the USGS equipment at Hunt, reports 7.54 inches of rain, the weather service reports.
The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe at Hunt reaches its highest point – 34.29 feet, an increase of 32.47 feet in an hour and forty-five minutes.
The weather service issues another flash flood emergency along the Guadalupe, downstream from Center Point to below Comfort.
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A flash flood warning is issued for western Gillespie County, where 2-4 inches rain has fallen and another 1 to 3 inches is possible.
An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain could fall in Kerr County, the weather service says, which could produce another small rise in river levels.
A meteorologist with CBS tells the weather service a viewer with family in law enforcement reported an entire RV park was swept downstream in Ingram with families inside the trailers. A video from behind Howdy's Bar and Chill confirmed the river was climbing to the back of the restaurant, says the weather service.
"This is a catastrophic flooding event in Kerr County," the Sheriff's Office posts on Facebook. "We can confirm fatalities ... and the entire county is an extremely active scene."
Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick confirms during its news briefing that "somewhere between 6 and 10 bodies have been found," emphasizing that number would change. At Camp Mystic, a waterfront girls camp south of the Hunt community, 23 girls are unaccounted for, Patrick says. "That does not mean they've been lost. They could be in a tree. They could be out of communication. We're praying for all of those missing to be found alive."
Contributing: Christopher Cann, Rick Jervis and Marc Ramirez, USA TODAY
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at [e-mail] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 'Don't drown': The timeline of deadly flooding in Texas Hill Country