Seoul's adjustment to S. Korea-US military drill could put alliance to test: think tank
The report, published in Korean by the state-affiliated Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said that under current circumstances, an adjustment to the Ulchi Freedom Shield drill could undermine 'the efforts and willpower expressed by the US Forces Korea to continue the S. Korea-US joint military exercises." This could weaken both Washington's and the USFK's trust in Seoul, it noted.
The think tank also warned that a potential one-sided concession from Seoul in the area of defense, without a proper negotiation with Pyongyang, could devalue the South's efforts and, later, even its negotiating power.
The report addresses Unification Minister Chung Dong-young's remarks in July to reporters, saying that he plans to recommend to President Lee Jae Myung to 'make adjustments' to the large-scale drill scheduled for mid-August. The Lee administration has repeatedly gestured for an inter-Korean thaw, including removing the South's anti-Pyongyang loudspeakers installed across the border.
Chung's remarks closely followed comments from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's influential sister, Kim Yo-jong, in July. She said Pyongyang was not interested in reviving talks with Seoul and denounced the 'aggressive' military exercises jointly conducted by South Korea and the US. The North has routinely condemned the joint military drills as a rehearsal for invasion and a provocation.
There is a possibility that the North is aiming to establish a favorable environment when potentially reviving talks with both the US and the South, according to KIDA. Adjustment to the scale of the South Korea-US military exercises would be one of Pyongyang's conditions to achieve such an environment, alongside a USFK troop reduction, a declaration to end the 1950-53 Korean War and official admission of the North's status as a nuclear power.
Aligned with these likely goals, Kim Yo-jong's latest comments were aimed at testing the alliance between the Lee administration and the Donald Trump administration and their willingness to carry out the annual joint military exercise, according to the KIDA.
The report released Wednesday was titled 'North Korea's negotiation strategy shown through Kim Yo-jong's comments and how (South Korea) should respond.'
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