In the dark: Australia ill-prepared for climate punch

West Australian

2 days ago

Floods, fires, heatwaves, drought, cyclones. Australia's weather extremes have been coming thick and fast.
While it's broadly accepted that climate change is ramping the frequency and potency of these hazards, communities everywhere still know little about their unique vulnerabilities to increasingly fierce emergency scenarios.
Although unlikely saviours, bureaucrats are on the job.
The federal government has been systematically and behind closed doors, working through how to deal with food security concerns, heat-vulnerable species, disaster-prone powerlines networks and myriad other issues as part of a full national climate risk assessment.
Yet this homework has not yet been turned in, despite a December 2024 deadline having come and gone.
The delay has former Defence chief Chris Barrie worried, especially in the wake of another round of destructive flooding on the NSW mid north coast that claimed five lives and left hundreds of homes uninhabitable.
The longer the wait, the higher the chance of an out-of-date report that fails to embed the latest science on warming, the retired admiral fears.
Last year was the first that exceeded pre-industrial temperatures by more than 1.5C, and while the Paris agreement threshold refers to long-term trends and has not yet been breached, the World Meteorological Organization estimates there's a 70 per cent chance average temperatures over the next five years will exceed 1.5C.
"The science is now lifting its eyes and saying 'we can forget 2C, that's almost yesterday's story'," Admiral Barrie tells AAP.
"Warming is accelerating and climate impacts are hitting faster than forecast."
The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water assures that the findings of the risk assessment will be released as "a matter of priority" under the returned Labor government.
Yet after the first half of this year dominated by the federal election, it will be late July before parliament resumes.
As a member of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group, Admiral Barrie is determined to keep the pressure on to prevent further delays or a buried report.
He has reason to be wary.
Recalling a briefing with a former treasurer about the domestic security implications of climate change, Admiral Barrie says the senior politician left the room upon hearing about the scale of projected uncontrolled migrations as sea level rises claim low-lying settlements.
"He didn't want to hear it."
In the absence of a national risk assessment or public release of a classified version produced by the Office of National Intelligence back in 2023, the retired admiral worries that climate-vulnerable regions can only guess how best to allocate limited funds and resources to adapt.
Rebecca McNaught is a climate change and disaster researcher at the University Centre for Rural Health and on the frontline of climate impacts through her involvement in regional community resilience groups.
Dozens cropped up following the 2022 NSW Northern Rivers floods, a response she says was borne of practicality and an understanding that emergency services "can't be everywhere at once".
During and after disasters, community groups spring into action, ferrying food to households cut off by road, helping elderly residents and offering extra pairs of hands during the clean-up.
The heavy rain brought by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred put the community resilience model through its paces, with smooth communication between authorities and the public among the benefits highlighted by Dr McNaught.
So far, disaster response has been the main game but communities are starting to think proactively about measures like dune restoration to protect from coastal inundation.
However Dr McNaught says overall investment in preventing damage inflicted by looming climate threats is falling short.
"In Australia, in general, we spend about 97 per cent of our disaster-related funding on response and recovery and only about three per cent on preparedness and resilience building," she says.
According to Simon Bradshaw, research director at Climate-KIC Australia and the University of Technology's Institute for Sustainable Futures, Australia is well into its decarbonisation journey but only now preparing for the warming baked into the system from burning fossil fuels.
"We've been painfully slow to really invest in community resilience," he says.
"It means we're unprepared to deal with the challenges of today, let alone those that we know are going to be there in the future."
Unlike investing in clean energy, which generates a healthy return and clear revenue stream, spending on sea walls and the like warrants a shift in attitude to value avoided losses and non-monetary gains, such as happier and healthier communities.
"It does require us to think longer term," Dr Bradshaw says.
Spending on prevention pays off.
For every dollar spent on disaster risk reduction, a roughly 10 per cent return on investment is anticipated.
The lack of clear profit incentive means most essential adaptation work is likely to rely on public grants and funding, Dr Bradshaw explains.
Climate adaptation isn't just a government responsibility, he says, with a role for communities and the private sector as well.
But governments of all levels could be doing more.
The Commonwealth's core adaptation mechanism, the Disaster Ready Fund, invests about $200 million a year, a figure dwarfed by the $13.5 billion spent on disaster response payments in recent years.
Top of Dr Bradshaw's federal wishlist is delivering on the climate risk assessment and adaption plan as the government bids to co-host the COP31 summit alongside Pacific nations.