Buy or Sell Quantum Computing (QUBT) Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?
BEIJING, CHINA - MAY 08: 1,000-qubit coherent optical quantum computer is on display at the booth of ... More Beijing QBoson Technology Co., Ltd. during the 27th China Beijing International High-tech Expo at China National Convention Center on May 8, 2025 in Beijing, China. The 27th China Beijing International High-Tech Expo will be held from May 8 to May 11, 2025 in Beijing. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)
Quantum Computing (NASDAQ:QUBT) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 15, 2025. Historically, the stock has shown a tendency for positive one-day returns following earnings releases. An analysis of the past five years reveals that QUBT experienced a positive one-day return in 73% of these instances, with a median positive return of 3.4% and a maximum positive return of 25.5%.
For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns could offer a potential edge. There are two primary approaches to leverage this:
It's crucial to remember that while historical data provides insights, the actual market reaction will heavily depend on how QUBT's reported earnings compare to market expectations.
From a fundamental perspective, QUBT currently has a market capitalization of $931 million. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $0.4 million in revenue and experienced operational losses of $26 million, resulting in a net income of -$69 million.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
QUBT 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
QUBT Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Quantum Computing stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Quantum Computing. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
QUBT Correlation With Peer Earnings
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Quantum Computing, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
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