Would a still-developing US women's team have won Euro 2025?

The Guardian

01-08-2025

Sunday in Switzerland, England's Lionesses clawed their way to a second straight Euro title after defeating the reigning world champions, Spain, 3-1 in a penalty shootout. With a record 1.35m watching stateside, at least one wondered if, in some alternate universe in which they could play in the Euros, they would have won it.
Asked that question on a recent episode of The Women's Game podcast, US captain and OL Lyonnes midfielder Lindsey Heaps suggested that they could. While debriefing England's wild quarter-final comeback against Sweden with retired World Cup champion Sam Mewis, Heaps began by noting the difficulty of comparing Emma Hayes' program in transition to mid-tournament teams: 'It's so hard because we're obviously missing a lot of players,' she said. 'But we have a lot of new, young players, inexperienced players, that are doing so well. I think it would be so hard to say. Also, Emma would fully prepare us for a tournament, and tournament mode. So it'd be a little bit different than what we've been doing, and how we've been playing.'
But nodding to the team's psyche, she added: '[It] goes back to mentality. I will always say, like, we would be, we would be killing it and winning.'
The internet, of course, was quick to point out what happened two years ago in Melbourne, with some fans seemingly aghast that the team's belief remains intact after an ignominious World Cup exit against European opposition. Others, of course, noted last summer's triumph in Paris, when Emma Hayes led the program to its fifth gold medal just 76 days after her first training session in charge of the team.
This summer's USWNT team isn't the team it was in 2023, when they suffered their earliest-ever departure from a competition they'd dominated. For that matter, it's also not the team it was last year in Paris, or the one it likely will be by the next World Cup.
So, with the players presently available, in this iteration of the USWNT, would they have broken hearts in Switzerland?
Probably not. They may not have been far off, though.
Head-to-head comparisons are imprecise because of changing dynamics for the US and their UEFA counterparts over the past few years. But the US's recent record against Euro '25 contenders isn't as bleak as one might think, given the still-lingering taste of bitter defeat on the sport's grandest stage.
The US has played six of the 16 teams that battled to reach Basel during or since the 2023 World Cup. That includes Iceland (twice in friendlies), Portugal (2023 World Cup), Germany (twice at the Olympics), England (one friendly), the Netherlands (once in a friendly and once at the World Cup), and of course, Sweden. Of those nine tests against Euro '25 competitors, the US won five, drew three and lost once in a penalty shootout. Four of those wins came against Iceland and Germany, with the other secured against the Dutch.
That's not too bad, though half of those teams lost in the group stage in Switzerland. Of this summer's eight quarter-finalists, the USWNT has played four and beaten just one of them (Germany) stretching back to 2022. Unfortunately, while the Olympics were a redemptive run for the felled giants, Germany (who they beat twice) were the only Euro team they faced, and thus their only opportunity to test a renewed mettle against Uefa opponents. That said, they did go on to beat Brazil, who sent France and Spain packing in the preceding rounds.
It seems probable, given the recently-proven talent of the US against competitors like Ireland and Canada (missing players and all) that they could reach the knockout phase of this summer's Euros. But as they reached toward the final rounds, or perhaps even the final, they might feel the difference between the team available for friendlies this June, and the one that won the gold medal. Most notably, that includes the formidable force propelling the team to glory at both ends of the pitch. Along the frontline: 'triple espresso' and their combined ten goals. At the other end: Alyssa Naeher.
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Naeher's 22 saves at the Paris Olympics were inseparable from success, as they included a record four shutouts (the most for any US keeper at the Games), 12 knockout round saves and seven against Germany alone in a hotly contested semi-final. There are hopeful contenders to fill those enormous shoes, including Manchester United goalkeeper Phallon Tullis-Joyce. But at this moment, the team is far away from having the tried and trusted hands of Naeher available to support them. Especially given the plethora of penalties that in many ways defined this Euros (for goalkeepers and penalty takers alike), the present keeper pool is too untested on that type of stage to say confidently they're ready to pull through like Naeher did at the Olympics.
At the other end of the pitch, Swanson, Rodman and Smith were not simply goalscorers that were fun to watch. They were big moment players capable of changing the game individually, with big tournament pressure and all the world's eyes on their back. Their prolonged absence has forced the opportunity to find new ways and players to score, and in recent windows a number of names have shown their skill in the final third (that somehow includes defensive midfielder Sam Coffey, who ended the June window with three goals in five games while cementing her name in Emma Hayes midfield). Beyond Coffey, it's been encouraging to observe new combinations of attackers work on ways to break down opponents and score goals. The skill is there, but the finished product is a work in progress. And the gamechanging greatness of triple espresso in Paris is a hard spark to immediately replace. (By 2027, they may not have to).
Emma Hayes delivered gold 76 days after her first training session. Today, 14 months into her long-term project, the US is certainly on track to compete with the top competitors from this summer's Euros. If they were thrown into the fray in Switzerland this summer, they'd have been competitive, but are likely a few years off from being a team ready to take the top prize.