LIC's June-quarter bets signal shift from momentum to value investing

Mint

3 days ago

India's largest domestic institutional investor, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) made selective bets in its equity portfolio in the June quarter of FY26, even as global uncertainties continued to dampen foreign investor sentiment.
LIC increased its stake in 54 listed companies during the quarter, reflecting a calibrated and sectoral approach to navigating market volatility. However, it also trimmed its stakes in another 64 firms on a sequential basis, a Mint analysis of 2,945 BSE-listed firms that have disclosed their shareholdings for the quarter revealed.
This comes after LIC participated in State Bank of India's ₹5000-crore qualified institutional placement (QIP) on 21 July, raising its stake from 9.21% to 9.49%.
The analysis also showed LIC had holdings of more than 1% in 232 companies —nearly 8% of all listed firms—in Q1FY25. Of these, it increased its holdings in roughly one out of every four, signalling a strategic accumulation spree across sectors such as FMCG, chemicals, auto components, engineering and metals.
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'LIC's investments in mid to large caps across diverse sectors validate the broader India growth story beyond just finance or infra. This move can attract foreign players and draw retail interest to newer mid-cap names. With LIC setting the trend, other institutions and long-term investors may follow," said Kush Gupta, director at SKG Investment & Advisor.
The five companies in which LIC raised its shareholding the most were Patanjali Foods, Shyam Metalics, Bharat Forge, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, and Havells India. These investments point to a broader shift in LIC's portfolio strategy—one focused less on momentum and more on deep-value and conviction plays.
Patanjali Foods: Swimming against the tide
In a quarter in which foreign and retail investors cut their positions in Patanjali Foods (PFL), a leading FMCG and edible oil company, LIC took a markedly contrarian approach, raising its stake by 1.48 percentage points to 9.14%. FPIs marginally trimmed their holdings by 3 percentage points to 0.21%, while individuals (holding nominal share capital up to ₹2 lakh) slashed theirs by 55 basis points (bps) to 2.62%. Mutual funds, however, aligned with LIC's stance, hiking their exposure by 1.29 bps to 1.72% sequentially during the quarter.
This institutional buying came despite the stock falling 8.7% in Q1. The company's trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 53x also remains below its five-year median of 60x, indicating possible valuation comfort for long-term players. While the company's edible oil sales surged 21% year-on-year in Q4FY25 due to price hikes, the foods & FMCG segment declined 16.6% owing to subdued urban demand and seasonal weakness.
'To revive growth, PFL is expanding its retail reach, targeting ethnic foods, and scaling direct distribution to 4 million outlets," noted ULJK Research, maintaining a 'buy' rating and forecasting a 10% compound annual growth in revenue over FY25-27.
Shyam Metalics: A contrarian metals play
LIC's aggressive investment in Shyam Metalics and Energy (SMEL), a major producer of steel and ferro alloys, was another contrarian move. The insurance behemoth raised its stake by 1.01 percentage points to 5.47% sequentially during the quarter even as FPIs reduced their holdings by 3.37 bps to just 0.64%. Retail ownership fell by 29 bps.
Despite delivering only a 2% return in Q1, LIC's bet could signal a long-term view on India's industrial metal cycle. At 28x trailing P/E, the stock trades significantly above its five-year median of 13.7x. Yet analysts believe the premium may be justified by strong fundamentals and infrastructure-led growth.
'Domestic demand for ferro alloys and structural steel remains robust, supported by the government's infra push," said Harshal Dasani, business head at INVasset PMS. 'LIC's increased holding reflects a strong belief in SMEL's long-term fundamentals."
In Q1FY26, SMEL reported Ebitda of ₹633.2 crore, surpassing Bloomberg's projections. The company has earmarked ₹2,000 crore in capex for FY26 and is targeting ₹1,300-1,400 crore in revenue from its stainless steel segment. Having already invested ₹6,600 crore, it is making steady progress toward its ₹10,000 crore expansion road map, said JM Financial.
Bharat Forge: Realignment in defence and EV play
LIC increased its stake In Bharat Forge, a key player in auto components and defence equipment, by 91 bps to 4.95% even as FPIs pared their exposure by 1.66 percentage points. Mutual funds and retail investors increased their holdings by 44 bps and 31 bps, respectively, suggesting a broader realignment among domestic investors.
The stock delivered a 12% return in Q1 but trades at a trailing P/E of 60.5x—below its five-year average of 66x. While global brokerages have turned cautious, citing weak visibility in commercial vehicles and export markets, others remain bullish.
JP Morgan downgraded the stock to 'neutral', flagging a 20% decline in US class 8 truck production in 2025 and lacklustre demand in India. Revenue growth is seen at just 2% in FY26, with a recovery likely only in FY27. But LIC appears to be playing the long game.
'With stock correcting around 40% from its peak and with a robust order book and expanding presence in defence, aerospace, and electronics, Bharat Forge remains well-positioned for long-term value creation," ICICI Direct said, maintaining a 'buy' rating.
Gujarat Fluorochemicals: Clean-tech conviction
Despite broad-based selling, LIC raised its stake in Gujarat Fluorochemicals, a specialty chemical manufacturer, by 85 bps sequentially to 3.1% during the quarter. In contrast, foreign portfolio investors, mutual funds and retail shareholders trimmed their holdings by 38 bps, 21 bps and 17 bps, respectively. Even as the stock posted a negative 9.7% return in the quarter and trades at a steep trailing P/E of 72x—well above the five-year median of 40x—LIC's conviction in the company's long-term prospects remains intact.
Dasani noted that LIC's move likely reflected faith in the company's leadership in high-performance fluoropolymers and refrigerant gases. 'These moves appear less about short-term sector rotation and more about valuation comfort and early-cycle accumulation," he said.
JM Financial has initiated coverage with a 'hold' rating, citing execution risks at stretched valuations, even as battery chemicals offer long-term promise.
Havells India: Steady build-up in consumption
LIC also increased its stake in Havells India, a consumer electrical and appliances firm, by 84 basis points to 5.27%. Mutual funds and retail investors followed suit with 12 bps and 4 bps hikes, while FPIs exited marginally. With a muted Q1 return of 1.5%, the stock remains a proxy for India's urban consumption recovery.
In Q1FY26 revenue declined 6% year-on-year, primarily due to a sharp drop in summer-oriented categories such as electrical consumer durables (ECD), which fell 14.1%, and Lloyd's appliance portfolio—largely air conditioners and cooling products—which plunged 34.4%.
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However, infrastructure-driven segments like switchgears and wires showed resilience, growing 9.3% and 27.1%, respectively, noted Yes Securities. The brokerage upgraded the stock to 'add' while retaining its 50x valuation multiple.
'With institutional buying turning inward, market cycles may become less dependent on FPI risk appetite," said Dasani. 'LIC's conviction could act as a confidence signal—marking a subtle yet significant change in India's capital market dynamics."