Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Nobel Peace Prize Skyrocket
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The odds on President Trump winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize have improved dramatically since his administration negotiated a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict that went into effect on Tuesday, according to a leading betting website.
Betting website Oddspedia gave Trump a 13.3 percent chance of securing the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize on May 19, but this had more than doubled to 27.8 percent as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
Why It Matters
On Friday, via his Truth Social website, President Trump complained that: "No, I won't get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do, including Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran, whatever those outcomes may be, but the people know, and that's all that matters to me."
In 2009, just eight months into his presidency, Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize in a move that the current president's son, Donald Trump Jr., described as "affirmative action" earlier this week.
What To Know
On Wednesday morning, Oddspedia gave Trump odds of a 27.8 percent chance of securing the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, making him the favorite ahead of Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg on 20 percent.
This was a dramatic improvement in his performance with Oddspedia since May 19, when the website only gave Trump a 13.3 percent chance of winning the prestigious award.
In its most recent update, Thunberg was followed by Wikileaks founder Julian Assange with a 12.5 percent chance of winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, then documentary maker David Attenborough on 10 percent, and the International Court of Justice with 7.7 percent.
President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference following the 2025 NATO Summit on June 25, 2025 in The Hague, Netherlands.
President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference following the 2025 NATO Summit on June 25, 2025 in The Hague, Netherlands.
Omar Havana/GETTY
On June 13, Israeli aircraft launched a series of strikes on nuclear facilities and military bases across Iran. Israeli authorities said the attacks were to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, though Tehran has long insisted its nuclear program is peaceful.
U.S. aircraft joined in on June 22 with precision strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using bunker-busting bombs.
The following day, President Trump said a ceasefire had been agreed between Israel and Iran, which he initially said both countries had broken, describing them as "two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f*** they're doing."
However, later on Tuesday, both Israel and Iran ceased their attacks, and Wednesday has been largely calm.
House Republican Buddy Carter said he was nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize in response to the ceasefire agreement.
Earlier this week, Pakistan announced it had nominated Trump for the prize, crediting him with averting a major conflict with India in May. Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine's parliamentary foreign committee, had also nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize but has since withdrawn this, telling Newsweek he had "lost any sort of faith and belief" in the president's ability to end the Ukraine war.
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek, Oddspedia said: "Donald Trump's odds to win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize have dramatically surged from +650 (13.3%) to +260 (27.8%), more than doubling his implied chances – despite recent controversies including a rescinded nomination, US airstrikes, and a televised F-bomb.
"Adding another layer of intrigue, he's now facing a familiar rival: climate icon Greta Thunberg enters the race as a strong runner-up, priced at +400 (20%)."
What Happens Next
The 2025 Nobel Prize announcement is due to take place on October 10 at the Norwegian Nobel Institute.
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