Trump, Putin Summit: 10 Explosive Moments That Shook The World
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Hans India
29 minutes ago
- Hans India
Time for investors to stay cautious amid global uncertainty
The Independence week saw both the benchmark indices the Sensex and the Nifty finally break free from their six-week losing streak, registering a healthy 1.10 per centgain and closing at 80,598 and 24,631 respectively. The rebound has brought relief after a prolonged phase of market weakness. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on Independence Day, a 'double Diwali' bonanza for the people of India, saying that next generation of Goods & Services Tax (GST) reforms will be rolled out by October this year. The GST rationalisation will help lower tax rates, lower the cost of daily essentials, benefit the MSMEs and boost the economy. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman indicated that the government envisages two slabs — standard and merit — plus special rates for select items, replacing the current four brackets of 5%, 12%, 18 per centand 28%, with luxury and sin goods attracting an additional levy. Trump and Putin met in Alaska, but failed to reach a breakthrough on ending the war in Ukraine, despite optimism from the US president. Post meeting, Trump's statement that 'he will not have to think of retaliatory tariffs on countries buying Russian oil right now but may have to 'in two or three weeks' now offers at least a temporary relief to countries like India.' It seems that an additional tariff of 25 per centon India beginning August 27 for importing crude oil from Russia, will be on a backburner feel observers. Trump administration's imposing a 50 per centtariff on Indian imports is not a reason to sell Indian equities. Instead, it's a reason to buy them since 'it is only a matter of time before Trump backs off the stance, which is not in America's interest' say market players. In the near term, market direction will be dictated by developments post Trump-Putin meeting, expectations over contours of GST reforms, international crude oil prices, rupee-dollar movement and FII behavior. In the coming week, a cautious and stock-specific approach is advised. With the Indices still consolidating below key resistance levels and no breakout confirmation, aggressive buying should be avoided. FII Chit Chat: FIIs are selling Indian equities like there's no tomorrow, with secondary market outflows in 2025 already hitting record levels — and four months of the year still to go. Year-to-date, FIIs have offloaded more than Rs 1.5 lakh crore in the secondary market, surpassing all previous annual records. The sell-off is being driven by slowing corporate earnings, unattractive valuations, heightened geopolitical uncertainties, and more appealing opportunities in overseas markets. Indo-US trade deal uncertainty and a potential extension of US-China negotiations are additional factors contributing to FII outflows. China, after years of underperformance relative to India, now appears poised for a potential tariff advantage. In valuation terms, India's benchmark indices are trading at just over 20 times one-year forward earnings, above their 10-year average of 19.3 times. It is pertinent to observe that FIIs are actively participating in primary markets despite the exodus from secondary market. Global 'hot' money in search of short-term returns is attracted to 15–20 percent listing gains in IPO segment. Some IPOs feature unique business models in which FIIs are willing to take long-term positions. Expect limited upside and possible downside in Indian markets over the next two to three quarters. A cautious, defensive, and tactical approach is must. Be prepared to invest in a down market and to 'get out' in a soaring market, as per the philosophy of Warren Buffett. FUTURES & OPTIONS / SECTOR WATCH Snapping a six-week losing streak, markets ended nearly a percent higher during the week ended. Despite exuberant start, the momentum moderated during the later part of the week amid mixed signals. The recovery was broad-based, led by Healthcare, Auto, and IT counters on the back of bargain hunting and strong domestic demand expectations. Consumer discretionary stocks also gained nearly 2%, reflecting optimism around consumption. S&P Global upgraded India's long-term unsolicited sovereign credit rating from 'BBB-' to 'BBB', reflecting a more stable economic outlook for the India. In the options market, prominent Call open interest for Nifty was seen at the 25,000 and 24,700 strike, while the notable Put open interest was at the 24,600 and 24,500 strike. For Bank Nifty, the prominent Call open interest was seen at the 56,000 strike, whereas marginal Put open interest at the 55,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's Call options settled at 10.87%, while Put options concluded at 11.49%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 12.14%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 0.93 for the week. The options data and PCR suggest a phase of short-term consolidation in the market. The PCR fluctuating between 0.78 and 1.08 indicates a balanced sentiment, with no signs of extreme bullish or bearish positioning. Nifty has bounced back and is now trading above its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while Bank Nifty continues to trade above the same. The long-term trend remains intact and bullish. In the upcoming sessions, Nifty may test resistance levels at 24,800 and 25,000, while support is seen around 24,400–24,200. Stocks looking good are Apollo Hosp, Mannapuram, Nuvama, PFC, Siemens, Supreme Inds and Uno Minda. Stocks looking weak are Astral, Blue Star, Bandhan Bank, Jubilant Foods, Kalyan Jewellers, PGEL and Tata Chemicals. (The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice-chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)
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Business Standard
29 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Zelenskyy, European allies seek clarity on Trump's peace talks with Putin
By Alberto Nardelli, Josh Wingrove and Natalia Drozdiak Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his European allies arrive in Washington on Monday anxious to find out what Donald Trump committed to at his summit with Vladimir Putin and apprehensive that he'll force Kyiv into making unpalatable concessions. Trump will host Zelenskyy and several European leaders to set out terms for a potential peace deal he discussed with Putin at last Friday's meeting in Alaska. While the US is expected to focus on territorial concessions demanded by Russia, Kyiv will seek to pin down possible security guarantees, according to a person familiar with the matter. The people said Trump revealed elements of his conversations with Putin in calls with allied leaders, though without much detail. Senior European diplomats privately vented frustration at the outcome, noting Putin appeared to have gained most from the summit. Leaders were also weighing the fact that Trump's own team sought to tamp down expectations for a quick solution. 'We're still a long ways off,' Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who took part in the summit, told Fox News on Sunday. 'We are not at the precipice of a peace agreement. We are not at the edge of one. But I do think progress was made.' Over the weekend, Trump golfed and steered clear of further insight on his meeting with the Russian president. In posts on Truth Social, he said the media 'distorts the TRUTH when it comes to me.' 'There is NOTHING I can say or do that would lead them to write or report honestly about me,' he said. 'I had a great meeting in Alaska on Biden's stupid War, a war that should have never happened!!!' In a series of television interviews, Rubio said Monday's meeting would focus on security guarantees for Ukraine, including what the US would contribute. He also said the US has little to lose if talks collapse — and that continuation of the war would have little impact on daily American life — suggesting that Trump might be willing to distance himself from the conflict entirely. The stakes couldn't be higher. Russia continues to make slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine and Europe may struggle to fill the gap in weapons and ammunition now that Trump has scaled back US support. In his calls, Trump also said Putin wants Ukraine to cede control of its entire eastern Donbas region of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, renewing earlier demands, Bloomberg previously reported. That would hand Russia a victory it has been unable to achieve militarily since fighting first erupted in 2014, and in an area where Ukraine retains heavily-fortified defenses. Russia would also halt advancing its claims over the parts of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions that it doesn't now control, effectively freezing the battle lines at current positions. The Kremlin could also potentially withdraw troops from areas of northeastern Ukraine near the Russian border where its forces control only small pockets of land. That raises the prospect that the 'land-swapping' Trump has teased as part of any deal will be lopsided in Putin's favor by giving him control of areas beyond what he's seized, offset by modest concessions of land that had been Ukraine's anyhow. 'If we're weak today with Russia, we're preparing the conflicts of tomorrow, and they will affect the Ukrainians,' said French President Emmanuel Macron, who will be among the leaders joining Zelenskyy in Washington. 'And let's not fool ourselves, they also can affect us, at a time when our country continues to regularly face cyber attacks.' Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff, who was also at Friday's summit, told CNN's State of the Union on Sunday that 'We got to an agreement that the US and other nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to Ukraine.' That's a reference to NATO's mutual-defense clause committing member states to respond if any one of them is attacked. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni floated a similar proposal in March, though Witkoff didn't elaborate on what sort of security guarantee may be offered to Ukraine. The US has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine. Something similar to Article 5 would be significant, but it would require American involvement, said John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine who is now senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. 'European troops, at an absolute minimum, are going to need American intelligence and American logistics,' he said in an interview.
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Business Standard
29 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Trump's peace deal demands leave Zelenskyy with only tough choices
By Daryna Krasnolutska and Alberto Nardelli Volodymyr Zelenskyy finds himself in an impossible bind: risk Donald Trump's wrath or accept a quick deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine by paying the disastrous price of ceding territory for vague security guarantees that could see Moscow come back stronger in a few years' time. This is the existential dilemma confronting the Ukrainian leader as he travels to Washington for talks with the US president on Monday. Fresh off a summit in Alaska with Vladimir Putin that bypassed a ceasefire, Trump has left Zelenskyy little room to maneuver. The situation is made even more tenuous by the memory of his last visit to the White House in February that erupted into a bitter exchange between Zelenskyy and Trump and briefly led to a halt in military support. This time a coterie of European leaders will accompany him, but they have questionable leverage and haven't always been on the same page. The entourage will seek clarity from Trump on exactly what security guarantees the US is willing to provide as it attempts to orchestrate a meeting with the Ukrainian president and Putin. Among the group accompanying Zelenskyy are people Trump has struck a strong personal rapport with, including Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. Aside from avoiding another dispute and maintaining Trump's interest in brokering a deal, Zelenskyy's objectives in the talks include: learning more about Putin's demands, pinning down the timing for a trilateral meeting, and prodding the US toward tougher sanctions against Russia, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Whether he can achieve any of these goals will depend on how much, in the view of European officials, Putin has gotten into Trump's head. After Friday's summit, Trump appeared to align again with the Russian president by dropping demands for an immediate ceasefire as a condition for opening negotiations. Instead, he said he'll urge Zelenskyy to act fast on a peace plan. 'Putin has many demands,' Zelenskyy said Sunday at a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels, a stopover to prepare for the Washington visit. 'It will take time to go through them all — it's impossible to do this under the pressure of weapons,' he said, adding that a ceasefire would be needed to 'work quickly on a final deal.' Raising the stakes for Kyiv, the US president sounded open to Putin's demands that Ukraine give up large areas of land in the east of the country, which the Russian army and its proxies have been trying to seize since 2014. Despite the harsh demands on Ukraine, there are signs that the US is now prepared to back a deal. Following his meeting with Putin, Trump told European leaders that the US could contribute to any security guarantees and that Putin was prepared to accept that. But it remains unclear what kind of security guarantees are being discussed with Putin, and what the Kremlin leader is willing to accept. 'We got to an agreement that the US and other nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to Ukraine,' Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, said in an interview with CNN, referring to the Nato provision that says if one ally is attacked, it is considered an attack on all members. Trump is also under pressure. He had promised that after taking office in January he would quickly end Russia's full-scale invasion, which is in its fourth year. His efforts were mainly targeted at Kyiv but he ultimately had to acknowledge it was the Kremlin that didn't want to stop the war. Instead of yielding to Trump, Russia has intensified attacks. Civilian deaths have mounted, with June and July the deadliest months in more than three years, according to the United Nations. Ahead of the Alaska summit, Trump said refusal to accept a ceasefire would trigger tough new punitive measures on Moscow and countries buying Russian oil. After the meeting, which included a red-carpet reception for Putin and a shared ride in the US leader's armored limo, Trump called off the threats. Rather than punish the aggressor, he declared he's seeking a full peace deal that includes 'lands' swap' and urged Zelenskyy to accept it. On Sunday, the Ukrainian leader reaffirmed his stance that he won't give up territory or trade land. 'Since the territorial issue is so important, it should be discussed only by the leaders of Ukraine and Russia' at a meeting accompanied by the US, Zelenskyy said. 'So far Russia gives no sign the trilateral will happen.' Zelenskyy's refusal to accept territorial losses is a position shared by the majority of Ukrainians. But the level of support has softened as counteroffensives sputter and casualties mount. Still, fears are that a further retreat could invite later attacks. Talks in Washington will also be pivotal for Zelenskyy domestically. In late July, he faced his first political crisis since Russia invaded. Thousands took to the streets over his move to undermine anti-corruption institutions. Zelenskyy relented and re-installed independence to agencies that investigate top officials. His position in the talks is complicated by divisions among the US, Ukraine and other allies. Trump believes Russia can take the whole of Ukraine — although the Kremlin has managed only to seize less than a fifth of Ukraine's territory despite more than 1 million war casualties. Europeans, meanwhile, are wary that favorable conditions could encourage Putin to widen his aggression. 'It is important that America agrees to work with Europe to provide security guarantees for Ukraine,' Zelenskyy said on Sunday. 'But there are no details how it'll work and what America's role will be, what Europe's role will be, what the EU can do. And this is our main task.'
