Climate study warns of 2.3m more temperature-related deaths in Europe by 2099

Independent

27-01-2025

Rising deaths from extreme heat will 'far exceed' reductions in numbers dying from cold temperatures in Europe with climate change, researchers suggest.
A study modelling the change in deaths related to high and low temperatures found that there could be more than 2.3 million excess deaths across hundreds of European cities by the end of the century if urgent action is not taken to cut emissions.
While efforts to adapt cities to rising temperatures would not be enough to curb increased health risks due to exposure to heat, up to 70% of the excess deaths could be avoided if climate change was limited, the researchers said.
The study found that in some parts of the continent, such as the UK and Ireland, there would be a net reduction in deaths, as a fall in people dying in cold weather outstripped a rise in mortality due to extreme heat.
London would see 27,455 fewer deaths by the century's end in the face of climate change, according to the analysis led by the Environment and Health Modelling (EHM) Lab at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
But the study warned that the lower death toll in some parts of Europe would be massively outweighed by the increase in the rest of the continent – with the Mediterranean, central Europe and the Balkans particularly vulnerable.
Barcelona, Rome, Naples and Madrid would be among the cities with the highest death tolls from rising temperatures by the end of the century, the modelling found, while many other smaller cities in Malta, Spain and Italy would also be badly affected.
This study provides compelling evidence that the steep rise in heat-related deaths will far exceed any drop related to cold
Professor Antonio Gasparrini
The study, published in the journal Nature Medicine, looked at how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related deaths in 854 European urban areas and their demographics, under different climate-warming scenarios.
In a scenario with low efforts to curb global warming and low adaptation efforts, deaths could increase by 50%, leading to a cumulative 2,345,410 deaths due to climate change between 2015 and 2099.
But there are regional differences across Europe, with a slight net decrease in deaths in Northern Europe alongside high vulnerability for Mediterranean and Eastern European countries.
Away from the Mediterranean, cities such as Paris would see smaller, but significant increase in temperature-related deaths overall.
The study said net mortality across Europe would increase 'even under the mildest climate change scenario' but the health burden increases substantially under more extreme warming and it would require 'implausibly strong levels of adaptation' in cities to reverse the trend.
The authors flagged the health benefits linked to implementing stringent measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as measures to help vulnerable countries and groups cope with rising temperatures.
Professor Antonio Gasparrini, senior author of the article and lead of the EHM-Lab, said: 'This study provides compelling evidence that the steep rise in heat-related deaths will far exceed any drop related to cold, resulting in a net increase in mortality across Europe.
'These results debunk proposed theories of 'beneficial' effects of climate change, often proposed in opposition to vital mitigation policies that should be implemented as soon as possible.'
Put bluntly, the increase in hot weather will kill more people than the decrease in cold weather will save
Prof Tim Osborn, University of East Anglia
Responding to the study, Dr Raquel Nunes, assistant professor in health and environment at the University of Warwick Medical School, said it had serious implications for public health.
She added: 'As climate change leads to more extreme heat events, the number of heat-related deaths is expected to rise, putting additional pressure on healthcare systems.
'Vulnerable groups, such as older adults, those with chronic illnesses, and low-income communities, will be at the highest risk.
'Without strong adaptation measures, public health systems could struggle to cope with the increased demand for emergency services and hospital admissions.'
Prof Tim Osborn, director of the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia (UEA), said: 'Put bluntly, the increase in hot weather will kill more people than the decrease in cold weather will save.'
He also that while impacts of rising temperatures could be greatly reduced by making changes that increase people's resilience to extreme weather, those efforts are far more successful 'if we also limit the amount of climate change that we are faced with by accelerating the move away from fossil fuels'.