Federal election results show an urban-rural divide in B.C. Here's why some political scientists are worried
Hamish Telford, a political scientist at the University of the Fraser Valley, said some generalizations can be made.
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Rural voters tend to be 'older and whiter,' while those in urban areas are more cosmopolitan and have more education, he said. Rural voters 'might feel like they're losing their place in the country. Or when they go to the city, they might feel out of place. They want to hold on to a version of Canada that they understand.'
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Telford said economic differences play a role, with people in agriculture and resource industries feeling 'under attack' by environmentalists who live in cities, where more people are employed in public sector or retail jobs.
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Lucas said people in cities have different and often greater needs than those in rural areas, giving the example or transit and highway networks. As a consequence, urban voters may be more pro-spending.
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But Lucas, an expert on Canada's urban-rural divide, also hesitated to draw a hard line between urban and rural B.C. There are different types of urban areas, including urban suburbs and more distant suburbs, while there are also different types of rural areas, like agriculture-based regions, remote Indigenous communities and towns built around a mill or mine. Voter concerns and identity in different places are not always neatly contained by definitions.
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Why are some political scientists worried?
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In some ways, the divide is just an extension of the normal disagreements that characterize politics, said Lucas. People have competing preference and priorities and some of that is manifest in where they live.
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'What is concerning is that we have a geographically based system of representation at both the federal and provincial level,' he said. 'The worry is that a government will end up with a caucus that doesn't represent the place diversity of Canada.'
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Lucas said he fears it is getting 'harder and harder' for the Liberals to get rural representation in cabinet. The same might be true for a Conservative government trying to gain meaningful urban representation.
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When government only cares about the concerns of people who vote for them, it can lead to bigger problems, said Prince.
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In the recent federal election, the collapse of the NDP — from 13 seats to three — reinforced the urban-rural divide in B.C. In the same way, the fall of B.C. United led to a two-party contest and stronger regional divisions in the last provincial election.
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Part of that is a result of the first-past-the-post electoral system, which steers democracies toward a two-party system, said Telford. He believes the federal NDP has a 'long road back' and may struggle to win back rural ridings in the Interior and on Vancouver Island, where many blue-collar workers now lean toward the Conservatives.
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'The NDP used to transcend the urban-rural divide,' said Johnston. That may not be the case anymore, as support in mill towns has declined with the workforce and the union movement has become more 'university educated, public sector.'
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Johnston said he wouldn't rule out the return of the federal NDP, particularly as the provincial brand remains strong. 'But they won't come back in Smithers, they'll come back in Coquitlam.'
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Article content Laural Kurta grew up in Torrington, a tiny central-Alberta hamlet nestled inside the sprawling federal riding of Battle River-Crowfoot. Kurta is director of the area's largest draw — the World Famous Gopher Hole Museum, a taxidermy tourist attraction featuring 82 ground squirrels presented in various poses and outfits. Everywhere Kurta goes these days, somebody wants to talk about politics. 'Just randomly, actually, when I'm getting gas, some guy at the gas station or some guy in the line at the convenience store has mentioned things,' she said. 'I can't tell you how many people.' As an Aug. 18 byelection draws closer, people across the riding feel conflicted about what's occurred in recent months, she says. 'There are a lot of people in this area that absolutely adore Pierre Poilievre, but they're very conflicted to see the expenditures that he's causing for these taxpayers,' Kurta said. 'A lot of people are very upset, not only at at Damien Kurek, but also upset at his choice to leave that position, to give it to someone else.' Kurek is the riding's former MP, as of June. He's been politically active in the region since his father would drive him around to erect campaign signs. In last April's general election, Conservative Kurek won the riding in a landslide with 82 per cent of the vote in his bid for re-election. Less than a week later, he was home, still collecting his campaign lawn signs, when he made the decision to resign after six years of representing the riding. 'I believe politicians should be servants. This was a way that we could serve, both this region and our country by making this offer,' Kurek said. Conservative party Leader Pierre Poilievre did not enjoy the same electoral slam-dunk as Kurek, losing the seat he'd held in Ottawa for nearly two decades. Kurek stepping aside, which triggered next week's byelection, gave Poilievre a second shot. Kurek said he believes in Poilievre, and thought that even from Ottawa, the party's leader had been championing the needs of rural ridings like Battle River-Crowfoot. 'Pierre Poilievre may not have been on the ballot here in the last election, but he always took my call and always was willing to fight for the issues of this region,' Kurek said. He said getting Poilievre back into Parliament was best for the area long term, even if it meant Kurek himself needed to step aside in the short term. 'It came down to being able to lead by example,' said Kurek, who's now working at a government relations lobbying firm. Not everyone in the area agrees with the example Kurek is trying to set. 'Of course people in this area, they're always complaining — always, always, always — about federal spending. And now, of course, we're spending millions just to go through a byelection,' Kurta said. Farther north in Camrose, the largest municipality within the riding, Adan Shaikh writes for the Camrose Booster, a newspaper that's operated since 1952. She handles the 'letters to the editor' pages, which received a smattering of opinions ahead of the spring general election. This time around, they don't seem to stop. 'In the past few weeks I've received so many letters,' said Shaikh. 'What is happening here? Do we understand this situation? This is about leadership,' one letter read. 'This is not democracy. To me, this whole affair makes a complete sham of democracy,' declared another writer. Letters are often written in response to other submissions, sometimes by name, others by a referenced quote. Some are about the byelection, others about provincial politics. 'Some people think that Poilievre is using our riding, but then some people think that he is exactly what we need in this riding,' said Shaikh. 'People do feel that if, you know, Poilievre wins that this community might get some sort of centre stage at Parliament; that we might be heard. Our issues might finally be heard.' Affordability has been a key issue for many candidates. 'Folks here, they want to see their dollars go further,' Kurek said. The average income in the riding sits at $51,900, roughly $3,000 below the national average, though that figure nearly equalizes when measured after tax. The agriculture and oil and gas industries are also key focuses of constituents. A number of candidates have raised the need for federal infrastructure funding, to keep the roads used by farmers in good condition without raising property taxes. Several have championed the rights of gun owners, citing the large number of voters in the area who own firearms and use them responsibly. Poilievre's detractor-in-chief in the riding is a woman named Bonnie Critchley. She's said she was happy with Kurek as her representative, and valued his active presence in the riding. She feels jilted by the former MP and the Conservative party after he chose to step down and gave Poilievre the opportunity to replace him. 'To cost the people of Battle River-Crowfoot another $2 million because his ego couldn't take the loss was just unconscionable,' said Critchley. Rather than take those grievances to the newspaper, or to a stranger in line at a convenience store, Critchley decided to take them to the voters in Battle River-Crowfoot, and nominated herself as an Independent candidate. Critchley's name marks the most prominent independent on the ballot — no small feat, as the nomination period closed with more than 200 registered candidates. Duel at the doors When Bruce Fanjoy defeated Poilievre in Ottawa-Carleton last April, he claimed to have worn through two pairs of shoes as he knocked on more than 15,000 doors in the riding. His team encased one pair in glass to commemorate the victory. In Battle River-Crowfoot, Critchley has put 30,000 kilometres on her truck. She won't let anybody else drive. Fanjoy's riding makes up a total of 2,788 square kilometres. The expansive Alberta constituency, which stretches along the eastern edge of the province, takes up nearly 52,000. Of the riding's more than 40,000 dwellings, only 80 units are in apartment buildings taller than five storeys. The number of single-detached homes is nearly 35,000. Camrose makes up less than 20 per cent of the population, with the rest scattered across Alberta farmland in various towns, villages and hamlets. 'I honestly spend more time in the truck than I do anywhere else right now,' Critchley said. She said her door-knocking efforts are why she could win. 'My initial intention was to simply provide a voice for those disenfranchised, with the way the Conservatives just assumed that we'll be OK swapping the local boy for the angry man from Ottawa,' Critchley said. 'As I went knocking door to door, it turns out I'm really not the only one. There are a lot of people in this riding who are very upset.' Critchley said she has amended her platform from those conversations. She cited her campaign promise to 'fight for fair Right to Repair legislation,' as a primary example. Critchley is far from the only candidate making the rounds or putting on miles. No longer hampered by a national campaign for prime minister, Poilievre appears to be much more present on the ground than he was in Carleton. He has hosted a number of town halls, fielding dozens of questions from local constituents. His social media is filled with appearances shaking hands at local businesses, bumping fists at hockey games, and even riding on a local's ATV, following his children on a short tour of Ryley, a village on the northern reaches of the riding. 'I'm loving the campaign. I'm having a lot of fun, actually. I love the people of Battle River-Crowfoot,' Poilievre said at a recent stop in Calgary. Kurek has been along for the campaign ride, volunteering his time to act as liaison between Poilievre and the constituents Kurek spent so long representing. He described the party leader as a workhorse, running from door-to-door. He said the reaction when they're on the campaign trail together has been positive. 'They say, 'Wait a second. It's actually you, you're here!' ' In Camrose, Shaikh said 'almost everyone has met him at this point.' She has met the party leader several times, adding she has also met Critchley and Liberal Party of Canada candidate Darcy Spady. Spady said he's been surprised by the amount of goodwill he's received at doors, especially in an area that generally aren't the biggest supporters of the federal Liberal party. 'There's been a few rough moments and a couple suggestions what I should do with myself and how quickly I should do it. But by and large, I've been pleasantly surprised, and I think the time is super ripe for people in East Central Alberta to have an option that's centrist and get used to red paint,' he said. Spady said he hasn't seen Poilievre in the riding outside of all-candidates meetings. Even at those forums, the party leader doesn't speak to others on the ballot, candidates said. Spady isn't convinced Poilievre is as busy in communities across the riding as his Instagram might suggest. 'He has a pretty active social media staff, I'll say that,' Spady said. In the village of Torrington, Kurta said Critchley has twice been in the community. 'No other candidate has made themselves known,' she said. Long, longer, longest ballot A record-breaking 214 candidates are on the byelection ballot; 201 one of those candidates are linked to the Longest Ballot Committee, a protest group that's added large numbers of candidates to electoral races since 2019. The group is relatively amorphous — without even a website to broadcast its message — but has made its presence known by stacking ballots in eight previous elections. According to the committee, there are now candidates from nearly every province in the country registered for Monday's byelection, with two even running from foreign countries. Tracy Farber is running from across the Atlantic in Lancaster, England, where she's lived for a decade. 'I also felt like it was a bit silly that the Conservative leader could just bump out the last MP and force a byelection. It's only slightly more silly that I run from over here,' Farber said. She's a Canadian citizen and lived near Brooks, Alta. She grew up in locations across the Prairies. 'I went to high school in Duchess and had family living in the riding. I'm pretty sure that makes me more local than Poilievre is,' she said. Elections Canada requirements for candidacy include Canadian citizenship, and being at least 18 years of age on election day. Those rules also explicitly state 'you do not have to live in the electoral district where you are running,' making no distinction on whether the place you're currently living is within Canada. Another listed candidate, Jason Buzzell, lives in the U.S. state of Nebraska. 'When I heard an unneeded byelection was called in the Camrose riding, I had to throw my name in the ring,' he said. Buzzell is a dual citizen who grew up near Camrose, and despite having lived in the U.S. for more than a decade, has spent that time consistently following Canadian politics. He still votes every federal election. Following politics in both countries, Buzzell is worried Canada is drifting closer to the two-party system seen south of the border. He's concerned that without electoral reform, Canada will see politics become more polarized all the way down to municipal levels of government. 'I can see it firsthand here right now,' he said. Registering as a candidate was his way of drawing attention to the issue. 'I do not have millions of dollars, and I am busy working and being a dad, so LBC helped get my name on the ballot,' Buzzell said. Candidates are required to collect 'at least 100 signatures of electors residing in the electoral district in which they intend to run,' a process that would likely be made more difficult for those living outside of the riding, province, or country. The Longest Ballot Committee smooths over that sore spot, sending volunteers around the riding to round up signatures for its candidates. Yao ZhangLi is one of the several hundred the committee helped onto the ballot. He's running without having left his home city of Montreal. He said the process to become a candidate took a little over 30 minutes. 'I just kinda raised my hand, they told me 'do this and that,' and that's it,' ZhangLi said. ZhangLi first heard about the initiative in April's general election, watching candidate Poilievre to unfurl a nearly metre-long ballot after the group stacked the Ottawa-Carleton race with 91 names. 'I was like, maybe I should get involved,' he said. 'I do intimately feel that our democracy has been stalled in terms of its efficacy.' While detractors argue the movement is impeding democracy, the Longest Ballot Committee, in a statement to Postmedia, said it's seeking to create an organization similar to Elections Canada — bipartisan, and separated from government oversight. The group want all electoral changes done through that organization, rather than passed through the House of Commons. 'Call it Election Rules Canada, to oversee democratic reform. MPs only change election rules to help themselves and this is a big flaw, one we're asking be fixed,' the statement reads. Write to vote versus right to vote The effort has already achieved a small measure of electoral reform in Monday's byelection. Rather than print off hundreds of metre-long ballots as happened in Carleton, Elections Canada elected to change the way ballots are cast. Voters will instead have to write out the name of their chosen candidate. While the write-in method of voting is not new, as it is the way special ballots have been cast for quite some time, it's the first time Elections Canada has been forced to make the switch for the day-of vote. The change may have an impact on the time it takes to tally the count. Voters may write out the name of the candidate they're voting for, alongside their party, but writing solely the name of the party will make the vote invalid. Spelling errors won't invalidate a ballot immediately, as long as the candidate of choice is still legible. Shaikh said most people she speaks with are happy about the ballot change given the circumstance, but that 'everyone is obviously pissed off at the Longest Ballot Committee.' 'We have a pretty big seniors community here in Camrose as well, and it's just such a great way to confuse people,' she said. Poilievre voiced those same concerns during his Calgary visit. 'They just want to inundate the ballot to confuse the situation, make it harder for people to vote. People with vision problems, the elderly, others who have difficulty now are going to have a harder time voting, and it shouldn't be allowed,' he said. As of the 2021 census, 21.3 per cent of the riding's population was over the age of 65 — two points higher than the national average at 19 per cent. Poilievre has now campaigned in two elections with a long (and now an even-longer) ballot, and said he wants to put forward his own electoral reform; the kind that will shut out the Longest Ballot Committee and similar protest initiatives. 'I don't have a problem with anyone who wants to run for office, even if they're not known or not wealthy,' he said. 'The simple solution is to say that if you want to be a candidate, you have to get, you know, several hundred signatures of your own.' The party leader has offered up potential legislation that would make stacking a ballot nearly impossible, namely disallowing voters from signing for multiple candidates, and requiring many more signatures to be an official candidate. The committee, in a statement, said Poilievre's proposal 'would have a profound and negative impact on Canadian democracy. In many ridings it could turn every election into a two-party race, and in safe ridings, like Battle River-Crowfoot, we would likely see no election at all. Races would simply be won by acclamation.' The impact of the large numbers of candidates and the ballot-casting changes won't be clear until after election day. Longest ballot candidates generally receive no more than a dozen votes. Often running from outside the riding, or province, longest ballot candidates frequently finish the race with no votes at all. However, those double-digit vote totals can add up, and 'in close elections, it can make a difference, and can, as I say, interfere with the real representation of the will of the electorate,' said Lori Williams, a policy studies professor at Mount Royal University. In two elections involving the Longest Ballot Committee, Independents have received a number of votes within the margins of victory between the first and second place candidates. The 2024 Toronto St. Paul's byelection saw Conservative Don Stewart beat the Liberal candidate running for re-election by just 633 votes. The ballot had 84 candidates, with Independents receiving a total of 1083 votes. The byelection in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun later that same year was even closer. The Bloc Québécois beat the Liberal who previously held the seat by only 269 votes; Independents, 868. Williams said while the committee may now have a trend of targeting Poilievre's ridings, he's not likely to be the one impacted by their presence. If the election is close enough that those margins matter, it's much more likely to affect the lesser-known Independents, she said. 'It's always going to make things more difficult for the person with less resources available to them,' Williams said. 'They simply don't have the money or the volunteers or the organization in place to offset the edge that's this commonly held by mainstream party candidates.' Poilievre's complaints about candidates running without intent to win might also point the finger at candidates who do have official party status. When Kurek attended candidate forums during the general election, he was the only person on stage. Now, forums are packed left-to-right with members from every major party in Canada. Kurta has said she thinks many of the candidates attending the forums, like the Green Party's Ashley MacDonald, know they won't win. 'It is a very conservative area, so you know, you're not going to see somebody vote for the Green Party, although I really like that guy. I thought he was great. He was quite witty, I enjoyed him, but he knows where he's standing. He knows where he's running,' Kurta said. Candidates are using the spotlight drawn by a party leader running in their riding to draw a line in the sand, she said. NDP candidate Katherine Swampy admitted as such on stage. 'I get it. I'm running, I'm going to lose. I'm here to advocate,' Swampy said, at an Aug. 4 all-candidates forum in Drumheller. What comes next? Williams describes the nature of this byelection as unique. Party leaders have seen other representatives step aside before, but very rarely after losing a constituency of their own. It is further complicated by the fact Poilievre was open about his time in Battle River-Crowfoot only being for one electoral period, asking Kurek to step aside only until the next election when he could run again. 'This sort of dropping in temporarily and promising to leave is something I've never seen before, and again, raises questions in some people's minds about his commitment to representing this region,' Williams said. Despite landing a new job with government relations and lobbying firm Upstream Strategy Group, Kurek says he still plans to return to politics, if Battle River-Crowfoot would be willing to take him back. 'It would be an honour to be able to serve again at some point, but, ultimately, that's up to the to the people to decide,' Kurek said. Kurek says that, if there's one win out of the situation (besides who he hopes is MP come Aug. 18), it's that people are finally talking about the importance of rural Canada. Should Poilievre win, Critchley is concerned he will go on to lose the official party leadership. If he does, she think's he'll abandon the riding and that Battle River-Crowfoot voters will again be back at the polls. Win or lose, Critchley doesn't think this will be her last time campaigning. Ultimately, many locals seem to think the field will fall short in the face of the force that is Poilievre. 'I think, he has definitely at least an 80 per cent chance of winning. I was at the byelection forum that was held here in Camrose, and I think it was very evident that he has a lot of support,' Shaikh said. 'It's probably going to the front-runner. Just because that's the way things go,' said Kurta.
