B.C. Falls Far Short of 2030 Climate Target
British Columbia is falling far short of meeting its 2030 climate targets, the province admitted last week, in a report that cited new industrial megaprojects as one of several factors that could push emissions farther off course.
The report, an annual inventory that is required under the provincial Climate Change Accountability Act, says B.C. will reduce its climate pollution by only 20% from 2007 levels this decade, not the 40% it set out to achieve, based on programs and policies in the province's CleanBC Roadmap that have actually been implemented.
So far, the accountability report shows the province's net emissions falling by just 2.2% between 2007 and 2022. Its gross emissions, including land use changes in sectors like forestry, increased slightly over that time. Its legislated emission reduction targets stand at 16% from 2007 levels by 2025 and 40% by 2030.
The report shows climate pollution falling by half per unit of economic activity, and by 29% per capita, from 1990 to 2022.
"The purpose of the report is to be absolutely clear on these points that we are not on track to meet our near-term 2030 goals," Energy and Climate Solutions Minister Adrian Dix told media in Victoria.
"It's huge. We're not even coming close," said B.C. Green Interim Leader Jeremy Valeriote. "If we missed our targets by this much on education, or health care, or any other aspect of public life, people would be outraged.
"It's a major failure and we all need to figure out how to fix it."
The report says this is the first time the province has measured the gap between its climate plans and its actual performance.
"In previous years' Climate Change Accountability Reports, the projection to 2030 relied on a scenario where all CleanBC Roadmap policies and programs were fully implemented. This approach was useful for assessing the potential of B.C.'s climate plan when it was in earlier stages of development," it states.
"However, as CleanBC advances, it is time to consider policy implementation within the analysis. This year, the projection relies on scenarios that consider the current policy landscape."
Clearing the gap between implemented and defined policies would shift the province's 2030 emissions reduction from 20 to 21%, the report indicates.
Climate initiatives still under development "include policy that supports the Roadmap commitment to implement a cap on natural gas utilities; the announced B.C. backstop to the federal oil and gas emissions cap; and reducing light duty vehicle kilometres travelled through mode shifting," the report says. "The omission of these policies in the modelling follows best practices in climate reporting but does not mean they will not be implemented."
But those delays contributed to sharp differences between the province's 2030 targets and its 2022 performance.
Transportation emissions were up 18%, compared to a targeted reduction of 27 to 32%.
Emissions in "buildings and communities" were down 5%, compared to a target of 59 to 64%.
Oil and gas emissions dropped 11%, compared to a target of 33 to 38%.
Other industries fell by 11%, as well, compared to a target of 38 to 43%.
The report calls for future gains through biofuel blending and zero-emission vehicle deployment in transportation, and heat pump installations and more stringent efficiency standards in buildings. In oil and gas, it foresees "modest emission reductions" through methane controls and upstream electrification, "offsetting forecast production and emissions growth in the upstream natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors."
But it warns that those plans "are not without uncertainty," given a number of "unaccounted for risks may affect B.C.'s ability to more significantly reduce emissions." That list includes future policy changes or delays, development of "new large industrial projects", external factors like lower gas prices or higher electric vehicle costs, and "extra-jurisdictional policy changes" that could delay the "broader market transformations" to a clean economy.
The report projects climate-related capital investments almost doubling this year, from $826.3 million $1.547 billion. But operational investment in climate mitigation and adaptation, transit projects, and various tax measures falls from $1.3 billion to just over $1 billion.
University of British Columbia political scientist Kathryn Harrison told Business In Vancouver the province was surprisingly candid about missing its climate targets.
"There's no way to fix climate change other than to decarbonize our economy. And that's proving to be harder than many of us assumed," she said. "This doesn't mean we can't do these things, but it means it's hard."
But outside analysts also raised issues with the transparency of the province's annual reporting. Ecojustice has been "calling on the B.C. government for the past four or five years of reporting to deliver more detail in these reports so we can understand the progress they anticipate making," staff lawyer Matt Hulse told The Tyee. Harrison added that B.C.'s past modelling has only included liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects for which final investment decisions have been confirmed.
The second phase of the LNG Canada project in Kitimat would add another 2.3 megatonnes of emissions, or about 5% of the provincial total.
Thomas Green, senior climate policy advisor at the David Suzuki Foundation, said the focus on actual program delivery makes this year's report more realistic than past editions. But it still raises questions about how the province will close its emissions gap.
Source: The Energy Mix
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