NHL Draft risers and fallers, ranking top prospects, trading picks, more: Mailbag

New York Times

6 days ago

Today, I answered some of your questions as the 2025 NHL Draft is quickly approaching.
Note: Submitted questions may be edited for clarity and style.
Which top center prospects for this draft are most likely to remain centers in the NHL, and which ones are most likely to have to transition to the wing? — M L.
I feel like Caleb Desnoyers is the only completely sure thing to stay at center, and Roger McQueen, to an extent, if he's healthy. Michael Misa and Jake O'Brien have good cases, but how good they are off the puck will be minor questions. James Hagens will have his size questioned until the end. Clayton Keller was a center right until he turned pro, and then he wasn't. Mathew Barzal has gone back and forth. Jack Hughes is a center, but he's bad on draws. I think the dilemma for Hagens will be where he fits on that spectrum. Brady Martin could be a center, but not everyone in the league is sold that he's smart enough. The same goes for Anton Frondell, although he's bigger and has a slightly better case to stick there.
Advertisement
Do you think the Rangers will give their first-rounder to the Penguins this year? If they do, what would be the 'best' outcome for the Penguins at 11 and 12? — Dr C.
My guess is that the Rangers keep the pick, but I could see them leaning against it. I would have to imagine they believe they are going to be better next season. The answer to both of your questions comes down to how the top group is defined. There are about 9-11 premium centers and defensemen in this group, and a couple of premium winger prospects. Given the Rangers' drafts of late, I can't imagine they want to take another winger at 12. But in order for that to happen, one of McQueen or Victor Eklund has to go ahead of them in order to get one of the top centers or, more likely, a defenseman. That outcome seems likely enough that they should keep the pick. If they didn't, Pittsburgh probably walks out of the draft with two future top-four defenseman, or a legit scoring winger (Carter Bear, Justin Carbonneau) and a defenseman (Kashawn Aitcheson, Jackson Smith).
Seeing Sascha Boumedienne consistently mocked to Nashville (23) and L.A. (24), is there any chance he goes higher than that? What can we expect his range to be on draft night? — James P.
It really comes down to how much his hockey sense concerns you. If a team doesn't think it's a major issue, and quite a few do, you're talking about a high-end skating 6-foot-2 defenseman with some puck skills. That's basically Tom Willander, who went 11th.
Any top picks you think might happen that we didn't see coming? (like third last year) — Anton N.
I probably wouldn't put a ceiling on where Brady Martin goes, but I feel that one has gotten out there already. There was some top-10 buzz on Jack Nesbitt a few months ago, but that died down after his U18 worlds.
How come Peyton Kettles doesn't get more love? He reminds me so much of Brandon Carlo coming out of Tri-City. Big kid who is more adept at using his stick than his size at this point, but should be a player at the NHL level. — Robert C.
There are quite a few defensemen who fit the profile (big, mobile, not very skilled): Kettles, Carter Amico, Max Psenicka, Jacob Rombach, Simon Wang. One of them probably plays 1,000 NHL games, but I can't guarantee which one it is.
Advertisement
If you had to rank the last three years' top prospects in one draft, how would it go? — Rick A.
1. Macklin Celebrini
2. Connor Bedard
3. Leo Carlsson
4. Adam Fantilli
5. Matvei Michkov
Outside of the top tiers of the draft, who are your favorite prospects? Basically, if you were a scout for an NHL team, who are the players you'd be pounding the table for? — Tyler C.
If I were running a table, I bet I would come out of the draft with one or both of Owen Conrad (D, Charlottetown) and Maxim Schafer (C, Berlin). Conrad is a 6-3 defenseman who can skate and has shown reasonable offense in the Q. He's not spectacular offensively or overly physical. Still, he checks a lot of boxes like other defenders with a similar profile, but doesn't seem to get the same hype. Schafer is a big, highly skilled forward who plays heavy, but his skating is an issue. He impressed me a lot at the U18s, and I would have the passion to get him in the mid rounds.
What's the hardest aspect of a prospect to quantify as it relates to becoming an NHL regular? What's the easiest? — Chris L.
It's easier to see who is fast or not, who is big or not, and to an extent, the level of skill a player has. The error rate is probably highest for projecting NHL-level hockey IQ, and to a lesser extent, their compete level.
Where would you rank Joshua Ravensbergen compared to other first-round goalies taken in the last 10 years? — Rick W.
He's pretty close stylistically and talent-wise to what Sebastian Cossa was at the same age.
In your opinion, why are NHL teams so resistant to making trades in/out of the top five? — Mathew B.
A few reasons. One is that, unlike the NFL, it's mostly a linear talent draft with positions playing a minor variable. So, chances are high that whichever player a team wants to desperately trade up for is also someone who can highly benefit your franchise. The second is that once you make that trade, as a manager, you are being judged on two players: The one you end up picking and the one you traded away from.
Advertisement
Most analysts have six top players. The Flyers' nightmare scenario is that Porter Martone is the last remaining of that tier when they pick at 6. If you're the Flyers with two top-line right wingers on the roster that are almost untradable, is Martone's perceived potential that much better than the next tier of centers? — Eric F.
For the Bruins at 7: If Martone is there but they desperately need a center like Jake O'Brien, what would you do? — Ryan M.
I love Martone, and I would be very excited to get him at 6 in a bubble. I also think you can move wingers around, even if they're uncomfortable playing on a new side; it's not ideal, but it's a situation you can figure out. That said, I don't think the centers Philly will be debating at 6 are light years inferior to Martone, even if I think there is a small gap. I would not be offended if they went past Martone to take the next center, because top-two-line pivots simply are next to nonexistent on the open market, so eventually you have to draft one. A similar line of thinking applies to the Bruins.
Every year, it seems a guy who's projected or mocked in the 4-10 range falls into the 12-20 range, and vice versa. Who do you see potentially having a draft day fall into the latter half of the lottery? Who do you see potentially jumping into that 8-12 range that was projected in the mid-to-late first? — AJ D.
In your draft confidential, there was a scout who said Eklund was overrated because he was a small winger without elite offense. I have heard that sentiment a few times now. However, almost every public draft list has him ranked 8-12. How far could he actually fall on draft day? — Real Bear C.
Once the playoffs are over, you will find big guys rise, small guys fall, and players with toughness tend to rise too (i.e., Brady Martin). People in the league would bet on Hagens and Eklund falling from perception for those reasons. Regarding Eklund, I don't think he even is a serious consideration for teams picking in the single digits, even if I think he should be.
What prospect has the widest variance in evaluations? Example: Some evaluators peg him in the top 10 while others have him as a mid-late second-rounder. — Chris D.
Great question. Cole Reschny, Jack Nesbitt, Lynden Lakovic and Logan Hensler come to mind. I have talked to scouts who have some of those players in their top 15, and some who would struggle to call their names with a high second-round pick.
Is there a prospect with questionable character traits that's likely to fall and possibly become a value pick? — Christopher G.
The value pick part is hard to say, but the two guys teams have probably been beaten up the most in their background research are Ivan Ryabkin and Cameron Schmidt.
I remember reading an article last year about the meanest player in the draft (Gabriel Eliasson) … any players this year fit the bill? Maybe outside of Aitcheson or any other projected first-rounder? — Michael B.
Malte Vass, Eddie Genborg and Carter Klippenstein come to mind. Mace'o Phillips may be the closest thing, though, to a Gabriel Eliasson/Brady Cleveland type of player.
Are any of the top picks this year considered to be NHL-ready? — Billy T.
I think Schaefer and Misa have very good cases to play right away. Desnoyers and Martone are probably on the bubble. I could see them teasing at camp, but they probably need another year.
How difficult is it for you, and for teams, to evaluate someone like Roger McQueen when they play so little? — Alexander H.
Extremely. There are so many unknowns. You knew coming into the year that he was a very talented player. He's so big and fast, and has legit skill. But I had some questions from watching him in previous years. How elite is his hockey sense? How consistent can he be? He was not a super physical type and in his brief stint toward the end of the season when he came back he was highly chippy and physical. Is that really him?
Advertisement
We talk about Hagens' perceived fall, and that came with extra data. If Hagens blows his knee out in October, he's probably going top five, and he probably isn't now. But we got that data from him, we didn't get it from McQueen. I've talked to scouts who are convinced that if he played all year, he would have pushed guys like Schaefer and Misa.
Do you think Ryker Lee will be taken in the first round? — Aavcocup A.
Yes, he's in the group of players I think could go late first/high second.
A more general question, but with players appearing on lists for the 2025 draft from, Slovenia, China, Italy, France, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, with other countries at the lower level of the top tournaments in Latvia, Denmark, sometimes Switzerland and Germany, is the World Junior Division 1A going to start getting more attention, and what non-traditional country do you feel will continue to produce more and more NHL talent? — Josh T.
I certainly watch that event more than I would have 10 years ago. Several players made my final 125 in part because of how they looked there (i.e., the Danish players).
For the Blackhawks: Would you rather pair Connor Bedard up with a high-IQ playmaker type (Martone or O'Brien) or a more pure scorer (Frondell)? I lean toward the playmaker, but I'm curious about a second opinion. — Untitled
Probably the pass-first guy in a nutshell, as I think Bedard's best assets are his hands and shot. I do think despite Chicago's public wording about how it thinks Bedard and Frank Nazar are its long-term top-two-line centers, you have to think whoever the Blackhawks pick at No. 3 this year they view as a potential option down the middle as well to play with one of them, or at least give them the flexibility to do so.
(Photos of Brady Martin and Victor Eklund: Dennis Pajot / Getty Images and Michael Miller / ISI Photos / Getty Images)