The rise of the far right, global trade and Ukraine's future: why the German election matters
Friedrich Merz is leader of the CDU/CSU conservative alliance, who are polling at nearly 30%, so the chancellorship is very much his to lose.
The CDU has said it will maintain the Brandmauer – or firewall – policy of not going into alliance with the far right, which includes the AfD. But the firewall has been seriously compromised during the election campaign, when Merz tried to pass a Bundestag motion with AfD support – the attempt only failed because rebels in the CDU refused to cooperate.
The CDU may be able to form a coalition with the Greens, or may have to rely on a 'grand coalition' with the Social Democrats. But in all likelihood, a sizeable vote will have been recorded for the AfD and their stances on Europe and Ukraine. This may make the coalition less stable, particularly if Merz's CDU continues its attempt to woo AfD voters. And excluding AfD from coalition talks will reinforce the populist narrative of a lockout by the liberal elite.
Sources: Population, land area, GDP from Our World in Data, latest available figures. Car parts exports 2023 from UN Comtrade database. Ukraine assistance from the Kiel Institute. Polling from walhrecht.de. Party positioning from PopuList. EU contribution figures from the 2023 budget. Length of government calculated using the parlgov database.
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Spectator
17 hours ago
- Spectator
Can Friedrich Merz save Germany from becoming irrelevant?
Friedrich Merz arrived in Washington this week alongside Europe's most senior leaders, ostensibly to coordinate the continent's response to Trump's Ukraine designs. Here was Germany's moment to demonstrate the leadership it perpetually claims to seek – a chance to shape the conversation that will determine Europe's security architecture for years to come. Instead, before the Chancellor could even present his case to the Americans, his own foreign minister Johann Wadephul delivered a masterclass in diplomatic self-sabotage from Berlin. Germany must play 'an important role' in any future peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, declared the CDU politician, before categorically ruling out German soldiers on Ukrainian soil. 'That would presumably overwhelm us,' he explained with the sort of defeatist precision that has become his government's signature. In a single sentence, Wadephul had kneecapped his own Chancellor's negotiating position, advertising Germany's limitations rather than its capabilities to anyone listening. This wasn't merely unfortunate timing – it was the latest instalment in a pattern of cabinet colleagues undermining Merz's already tentative efforts at international leadership. Whether on defence spending, migration policy or economic reform, the Chancellor finds himself repeatedly ambushed by ministers who seem determined to advertise Germany's unwillingness to shoulder serious responsibilities. One might call it capitulation before the first battle was fought, but this represents something more systematic: the crystallisation of a political culture that has made strategic irrelevance into an art form. Here lies the exquisite tragedy of modern Germany: a nation trapped between its aspirations and its neuroses, too large to be irrelevant yet too terrified to actually lead. While Merz and other European leaders huddle in the White House, desperately hoping to dissuade Trump from striking a deal at Kyiv's expense, political Berlin sends its familiar signal: Yes, we speak of responsibility. No, we won't actually take it. The coalition has made itself thoroughly comfortable in this culture of irresponsibility. Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil offered a textbook example of political evasion in his recent television interview, declaring that 'naturally we must also assume responsibility as Europeans when it comes to security guarantees'. Whether this involves troops, training, money, or something else entirely 'must all be clarified in the coming days'. What sounds like commitment is actually an escape hatch – the political equivalent of agreeing to meet for lunch 'sometime soon'. Few politicians dare acknowledge the challenges that Russian imperial ambition actually poses to Germany. CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter represents a rare voice of clarity, reminding his colleague Wadephul that European peace cannot be guaranteed without military backing – including ground troops if necessary. Germany, Kiesewetter argues, cannot lead from Central Europe whilst simultaneously refusing engagement where it matters. The mathematics are brutal but simple: you cannot exercise leadership whilst advertising your unwillingness to pay its price. Yet this is precisely Germany's chosen strategy, demanding a seat at the top table whilst openly declaring vast swathes of policy off-limits. Chancellor Merz understands that Germany cannot define its role through economic power alone. Since taking office, he has tentatively begun moving Germany back towards leadership responsibility. But the resistance is formidable – within his own party, throughout the coalition, and amongst a public that has grown comfortable with foreign policy free-riding. The result is that Germany is stuck in an interstitial position: too significant to be ignored, too anxious to genuinely lead. Whilst Washington discusses Ukraine's and Europe's future, Berlin resembles a spectator at its own continent's strategic deliberations. It wanted to be an actor yet seems content remaining in the audience. This dysfunction extends far beyond foreign policy. The coalition's domestic paralysis mirrors its international timidity. When asked about the government's future direction, Klingbeil couldn't even feign enthusiasm for his own coalition. Rather than articulating any compelling vision, he made clear that he views this partnership as little more than a marriage of convenience – one held together primarily by fear of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD). Defining oneself solely in opposition to populists represents political dwarfism of the highest order. Those serious about defeating populism cannot practise politics purely ex negativo. They must offer positive alternatives, compelling visions, genuine leadership. Instead, Klingbeil offered warmed-over social democratic orthodoxy: higher taxes for high earners. But lack of revenue isn't Germany's problem. Rather, astronomical debt and a bloated welfare state burden the republic with obligations that will eventually crush future generations. Precisely when populists will find their richest hunting grounds. If Klingbeil genuinely wants to defeat populism, he must confront Germans with uncomfortable truths: they will need to work more and longer to save the pension system. Social spending must be cut – the state cannot continue housing every applicant in city centres. Real change requires discomfort for those who have arranged their lives at public expense. Klingbeil should also cease attacking coalition partners who dare speak inconvenient truths. When Trade Minister Katherina Reiche recently demanded Germans work harder, this wasn't pandering to the right – it was acknowledging a bitter reality. The coalition catastrophically underestimates German citizens by assuming they cannot handle genuine reforms. The necessary cuts would be entirely explicable. Everyone understands that deterring Russia carries costs. Everyone can calculate that fewer young workers cannot indefinitely finance more retirees' pensions. This requires basic arithmetic, not advanced mathematics. The irony is exquisite: by merely managing stagnation, the coalition achieves precisely what Klingbeil claims to oppose. Nothing feeds populists like politics' inability to address change. If the Union and SPD continue this path, they can watch the AfD overtake them in the next election. Germany's predicament extends beyond coalition politics to a fundamental crisis of strategic imagination. 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The current strategy of wanting influence without responsibility represents the worst of both worlds and is a recipe for strategic marginalisation disguised as pragmatic restraint. The question is whether German politicians will recognise this reality before their nation's window for meaningful leadership closes entirely. Current evidence suggests they may prefer the comfort of managed decline to the challenges of actual leadership. If so, Germany's partners should plan accordingly.
Daily Mail
a day ago
- Daily Mail
Italy's Giorgia Meloni's appears to side-eye to German Chancellor Merz
Advertisement Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni appeared to give side-eye to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Monday as they attended a high-stakes meeting in the East Room with President Donald Trump . Meloni and Merz were among the European leaders who flew to Washington to back up Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky , who was receiving a debrief from Trump after the president's meeting Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin . Trump is attempting to end the war in Ukraine. During his Oval Office meeting with Zelensky, Trump stated that a ceasefire deal wasn't necessary ahead of a broader peace agreement. Afterward, Zelensky and the other European leaders gathered around a table in the East Room for a meeting. Merz - and later French President Emmanuel Macron - pressed Trump on the ceasefire issue. 'Let's try and put pressure on Russia , because the credibility of this effort, these efforts we are undertaking today, are depending on at least a ceasefire from the beginning of the serious negotiations, from next stop on,' Merz told Trump. Between Merz and the American president sat Meloni - who was captured on camera making several odd expressions with her eyes as the German chancellor went on. 'So I would like to emphasize this aspect and would like to see a ceasefire from the next meeting, which should be a trilateral meeting, wherever it takes place,' Merz said. Last month Meloni got called out for dramatically rolling her eyes amid a conversation with Macron at the G7 in Canada. A year before, at the G7, she got caught rolling her eyes after then President Joe Biden was late for the third day in a row. The 48-year-old has served as the prime minister of Italy since October 2022 - a particularly lengthy time for an Italian leader. She came into office as a far-right conservative and thus is more politically aligned with Republican Trump than some of her European counterparts. Going around the table, Trump called Meloni 'a really great leader and an inspiration over there.' 'She's served now, even though she's a very young person, she's served there for a long period of time relative to others,' the president marveled. 'They don't last very long,' he laughed. 'You've lasted a long time. You're going to be there a long time,' Trump said. The friendly banter continued as the press exited. Finnish President Alexander Stubb watched as reporters shouted questions toward Trump, Zelensky and the leaders as they were ushered out by White House wranglers.
Daily Mail
a day ago
- Daily Mail
Italy's Giorgia Meloni's side-eye goes viral as she's seated next to Trump during crunch talks
Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni appeared to give side-eye to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Monday as they attended a high-stakes meeting in the East Room with President Donald Trump. Meloni and Merz were among the European leaders who flew to Washington to back up Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was receiving a debrief from Trump after the president's meeting Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump is attempting to end the war in Ukraine. During his Oval Office meeting with Zelensky, Trump stated that a ceasefire deal wasn't necessary ahead of a broader peace agreement. Afterward, Zelensky and the other European leaders gathered around a table in the East Room for a meeting. Merz - and later French President Emmanuel Macron - pressed Trump on the ceasefire issue. 'Let's try and put pressure on Russia, because the credibility of this effort, these efforts we are undertaking today, are depending on at least a ceasefire from the beginning of the serious negotiations, from next stop on,' Merz told Trump. Between Merz and the American president sat Meloni - who was captured on camera making several odd expressions with her eyes as the German chancellor went on. 'So I would like to emphasize this aspect and would like to see a ceasefire from the next meeting, which should be a trilateral meeting, wherever it takes place,' Merz said. Last month Meloni got called out for dramatically rolling her eyes amid a conversation with Macron at the G7 in Canada. A year before, at the G7, she got caught rolling her eyes after then President Joe Biden was late for the third day in a row. The 48-year-old has served as the prime minister of Italy since October 2022 - a particularly lengthy time for an Italian leader. She came into office as a far-right conservative and thus is more politically aligned with Republican Trump than some of her European counterparts. Going around the table, Trump called Meloni 'a really great leader and an inspiration over there.' 'She's served now, even though she's a very young person, she's served there for a long period of time relative to others,' the president marveled. 'They don't last very long,' he laughed. 'You've lasted a long time. You're going to be there a long time,' Trump said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) speaks to the press at the top of a meeting in the East Room Monday hosted by President Donald Trump (right) and attended by European leaders including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (left) and French President Emmanuel Macron (center) The friendly banter continued as the press exited. Finnish President Alexander Stubb watched as reporters shouted questions toward Trump, Zelensky and the leaders as they were ushered out by White House wranglers. 'You do this every day?' Stubb asked Trump. 'All the time,' the U.S. president answered. Meloni then interjected. 'But he loves it, he loves it,' she said dramatically, then adding how she doesn't like engaging with the Italian press. Trump then told Meloni that Stubbs was a 'very good golfer, you know.'
