CNBC Markets Now: June 4, 2025
CNBC Markets Now provides a look at the day's market moves with commentary and analysis from Michael Santoli, CNBC Senior Markets Commentator.
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Tom Lee Predicts the S&P 500 Will Soar 10% in 2025. Here's the Best Way to Benefit.
Lee says he's more confident about the S&P 500 reaching his forecast than he was several weeks ago. The index already has advanced 20% since its April low. 10 stocks we like better than Vanguard S&P 500 ETF › The S&P 500 index, after two years of double-digit gains, has experienced some rocky times in recent months. Investors' concerns about how President Donald Trump's import tariffs may affect the economy and corporate earnings weighed heavily on the index in March and April, even briefly pushing it into a bear market. If tariff levels are high, they could result in rising prices -- and therefore costs -- for companies and individuals. But Trump's recent initial trade deals with the U.K. and China offered investors hope that tariffs will be manageable, and that's helped the S&P 500 regain a significant amount of territory. The major benchmark has climbed 20% since its low in April. Tom Lee, Fundstrat managing partner, has stuck with his prediction for S&P 500 gains for the full year and now says, with companies showing strength in recent times, he's even more confident the index will reach his forecast. Lee's forecast of 6,600 implies a 10% climb from the index's closing level on June 3. How can you benefit from a rising S&P 500 this year? Let's find out. First, a quick note about Lee's forecast. The analyst, in an interview with CNBC earlier this week, said that while reaching 6,600 seemed complicated a few weeks ago, it now seems as if the index may be set to make it happen. "I think businesses are in better shape now than they were in February," he said in the interview. "So, I think making 6,600 actually seems more achievable today than it did in February." In recent weeks, companies across industries have reported earnings for the first quarter of the year. Of the 98% of S&P 500 companies that reported as of May 30, 78% delivered a positive earnings-per-share surprise, and 64% announced a positive revenue surprise, according to FactSet. This has helped stocks advance, even as some elements of uncertainty remain in the market -- such as ongoing tariff discussions and mixed economic data. But if tariff or economic headwinds don't strengthen, the S&P 500 could continue to rise this year to reach Lee's forecast. Now, there's one very easy way to score a win from this movement, and it doesn't involve much time or effort. Instead, it involves one simple purchase, the purchase of shares of a fund that tracks the S&P 500. A fantastic low-cost one is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO). This exchange-traded fund replicates the composition of the benchmark, setting it up to deliver an identical performance. I call the Vanguard fund "low cost" because its expense ratio is only 0.03% -- ETF fees are expressed as expense ratios, and you should always choose one with a ratio of less than 1% so it won't hurt your long-term returns. This fund fits the bill by a long shot. Investing in this or a similar ETF is a great way to bet on the S&P 500's performance because it offers you exposure to the entire benchmark with one simple operation. And this means you don't have to worry about assembling a basket of the most heavily weighted S&P 500 stocks to attempt to reflect the benchmark -- instead, this investment offers you exposure to the full index. So, should you join in Tom Lee's optimism about the S&P 500 and buy shares of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF now? It's a great idea, and here's why. If Lee is right, you'll set yourself up for gains in the near term. The positive corporate earnings we've seen at the start of the year along with an improvement in market sentiment in recent months could set the index on the right track. And any potential good news regarding the import tariff situation and the economy at any point in the coming months could offer further catalysts. But here's the best news of all: History shows us the S&P 500 always has advanced over the long run. So, even if the S&P 500 doesn't make it to Lee's target by the end of the year, a purchase of an S&P 500 tracker today could offer you a major win down the road. Before you buy stock in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $668,538!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $869,841!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 789% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Tom Lee Predicts the S&P 500 Will Soar 10% in 2025. Here's the Best Way to Benefit. was originally published by The Motley Fool Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
CNBC
4 hours ago
- CNBC
New research busts 6 AI myths: Artificial intelligence makes workers 'more valuable, not less'
Despite widespread fears that artificial intelligence could automate jobs and cut employees' wages, AI actually makes people "more valuable, not less," new research by professional services firm PwC found. "What causes people to react in this environment is the speed of the tech innovation," PwC Global Chief AI Officer, Joe Atkinson told CNBC Make It. "The reality is that the tech innovation is moving really, really fast. It's moving at a pace that we've never seen in a tech innovation before." "What the report suggests, actually, is AI is creating jobs," Atkinson said. In fact, both jobs and wages are growing in "virtually every" AI-exposed occupation — or jobs that have tasks where the technology can be used — including those that are the most automatable, such as customer service workers or software coders, according to the 2025 AI Jobs Barometer report. "We know that every time we have an industrial revolution, there are more jobs created than lost. The challenge is that the skills workers need for the new jobs can be quite different," said Carol Stubbings, PwC UK's global chief commercial officer, in the report. "So the challenge, we believe, is not that there won't be jobs. It's that workers need to be prepared to take them," said Stubbings. The report, which analyzed over 800 million job ads and thousands of company financial reports across six continents, challenged six common myths about AI's impact: Myth: AI has not yet had a significant impact on productivity. However, the report found that since 2022, productivity growth in industries "best positioned to adopt AI" has nearly quadrupled, while falling slightly in industries "least exposed" to AI, such as physical therapy. Notably, the industries that are the most exposed to AI, such as software publishing, showed three times higher growth in revenue per employee, according to PwC's data. Myth: AI can have a negative impact on workers' wages and bargaining power. PwC's data showed that the wages of workers with AI skills are on average 56% higher compared to workers without these skills in the same occupation, up from 25% last year. In addition, wages are rising twice as fast in industries that are the most exposed to AI compared to the industries least exposed. Myth: AI may lead to a decrease in job numbers. The report found that while occupations with lower exposure to AI saw strong job growth at 65% between 2019 and 2024, growth remained robust — albeit slower — even in occupations more exposed to the technology (38%). Myth: AI may exacerbate inequalities in opportunities and wages for workers. Contrary to fears that AI will worsen inequality, the report findings show that wages and employment are rising for jobs that are augmentable and automatable by the technology. The report noted that employer demand for formal degrees is declining faster in AI-exposed jobs, creating broader opportunities "for millions". Myth: AI may "deskill" jobs that it automates. The report found that instead, AI can enrich automatable jobs by freeing up employees from tedious tasks to practice more complex skills and decision making. For example, data entry clerks can evolve into a "higher value" role such as data analysts, according to PwC. Myth: AI may devalue jobs that it highly automates. The data shows that not only are wages rising for jobs that are highly automatable, but the technology is also reshaping these jobs to become more "complex and creative," and ultimately, make people more valuable. The study offers another perspective: In a world where many countries have declining working-age populations, softening job growth in AI-exposed occupations could even "be helpful" and benefit such countries. The productivity boost by AI can actually create a "multiplier effect" on the available workforce and satisfy the gaps that companies might not have been able to be fill otherwise, as well as growth for businesses, said Atkinson. "It's a prediction supported already by the productivity data we're seeing," he added. "I think it could absolutely and will be a good thing." Ultimately, the study takes the stance that AI should be treated "as a growth strategy, not just an efficiency strategy." Rather than using the technology to cut costs on headcount, companies should help their employees adapt and work together to create new opportunities, claim new markets and revenue streams. "It is critical to avoid the trap of low ambition. Instead of limiting our focus to automating yesterday's jobs, let's create the new jobs and industries of the future," the report said. "AI, if used with imagination, could spark a flowering of new jobs and new business models. For example, 2/3 of jobs in the U.S. today did not exist in 1940, and many of these new jobs were enabled by advances in technology," the report added.
CNBC
4 hours ago
- CNBC
The world could be facing another 'China shock,' but it comes with a silver-lining: Cooler inflation
SINGAPORE -- Vincent Xue runs an online grocery retail business, offering fresh produce, canned food, packaged easy-to-cook ingredients to cost-conscious local consumers in Singapore. Xue's Nasdaq-listed Webuy Global sources primarily from suppliers in China. Since late last year, one third of his suppliers, saddled with excess inventory in China, have offered steep his company discounts of up to 70%. "Chinese domestic markets are too competitive, some larger F&B manufacturers were struggling to destock their inventories as weak consumer demand drags," he said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. Xue has also gotten busier this year after sealing a partnership with Chinese e-commerce platform Pinduoduo that has been making inroads into the Southeast Asian country. "There will be about 5-6 containers loaded with Pinduoduo's orders coming in every week," Xue said, and Webuy Global will support the last-mile delivery to customers. At a time when steep tariffs are deterring Chinese exports to the U.S., while domestic consumption remains a worry, overcapacity has led Chinese producer prices to stay in deflationary territory for more than two years. Consumer inflation has remained near zero. Still, the country is doubling down on manufacturing, and this production overdrive is rippling through global markets, stirring anxiety in Asia that a flood of cheap imports could squeeze local industries, experts said. "Every economy around the world is concerned about being swamped by Chinese exports ... many of them [have] started to put up barriers to importing from China," said Eswar Prasad, senior professor of trade policy and economics at Cornell University. But for inflation-worn economies, economists say the influx of low-cost Chinese goods comes with a silver-lining: lower costs for consumers. That in turn could offer central banks some relief as they juggle lowering living costs while reviving growth on the back of rising trade tensions. For markets with limited manufacturing bases, such as Australia, cheap Chinese imports could ease the cost-of-living crisis and help bring down inflationary pressure, said Nick Marro, principal economist at Economist Intelligence Unit. Emerging growth risks and subdued inflation may pave the way for more rate cuts across Asia, according to Nomura, which expects central banks in the region to further decouple from the Fed and deliver additional easing. The investment bank predicts Reserve Bank of India to deliver additional rate cuts of 100 basis points during rest of the year, central banks in Philippines and Thailand to cut rates by 75 basis points each, while Australia and Indonesia could lower rates by 50 basis points, and South Korea by a quarter-percentage-point. In Singapore, the rise in costs of living was among the hot-button issues during the city-state's election campaigning in the lead up to the polls held last month. Core inflation in Singapore could surprise at the lower end of the MAS forecast range, economists at Nomura said, citing the impact of influx of cheap Chinese imports. Singapore is not alone in witnessing the disinflationary impact as low-cost Chinese goods flood in. "Disinflationary forces are likely to permeate across Asia," added Nomura economists, anticipating Asian nations to feel the impact from "China shock" accelerating in the coming months. Asian economies were already wary of China's excess capacity, with several countries imposing anti-dumping duties to safeguard local manufacturing production, even before the roll-out of Trump's sweeping tariffs. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the world economy experienced the so-called "China shock," when a surge in cheap China-made imports helped keep inflation low while costing local manufacturing jobs. A sequel of sorts appears to be under way as Beijing focuses on exports to offset the drag in domestic consumption. Chinese exports to the ASEAN bloc rose 11.5% year on year in the first four months this year, as shipments to the U.S. shrank 2.5%, according to China's official customs data. In April alone, China's shipments to ASEAN surged 20.8%, as exports to U.S. plunged over 21% year on year. These goods often arrive at a discount. Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate Chinese products imported by Japan in the past two years to have become about 15% cheaper compared to products from other countries. India, Vietnam and Indonesia have imposed various protectionist measures to provide some relief for domestic producers from intense price competition, particularly in sectors facing overcapacity and cheap imports. While for a large number of countries an influx of Chinese goods is a trade-off between lower inflation and the adverse impact on local production, countries such as Thailand could be facing a double-edged sword. Thailand will likely be the hardest-hit by "China shock," even sliding into a deflation this year, Nomura economists predict, while India, Indonesia and the Philippines will also see inflation falling below central banks' targets.
