What the Israel-Iran conflict means for gas prices

CNN

16 hours ago

Israel's unprecedented attack on Iran raises the specter of sharply higher gasoline prices, just as the summer driving season heats up.
Up until now, pump prices had been low and stable. Relatively cheap gas prices have helped drive down inflation and offset consumer concerns about sky-high tariffs.
While gas prices tend to rise mildly during the warmer months as people begin their summer vacations, everything has changed since Israel's stunning strikes on Iran – an attack that Tehran has vowed to respond to. Analysts say the severity of that Iranian response, and whether it derails the flow of oil out of the Middle East, will help determine just how gasoline prices go.
Oil prices immediately spiked as the market braced for a wider conflict, one that endangers the region's critical energy supplies. US crude spiked as much as 14% overnight, before pulling back.
As of midday on Friday, crude was up 6%, on track for its biggest one-day increase since April 2023. For the week, oil has surged by about 12%, the most since October 2022 when OPEC sharply cut oil production.
'We're still at the tip of this situation, but Iran calling the strikes a declaration of war doesn't bode well for the flow of oil,' said Patrick De Haan, vice president of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, a fuel tracking platform.
De Haan told CNN that gasoline prices are likely to drift higher over the next few weeks, increasing by about 10 to 25 cents per gallon. The national average for regular gas stood at just $3.13 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA. That's down from $3.16 a month ago and well below the year-ago level of $3.46.
But pump prices are likely to move significantly higher in the coming days because of the increase in crude prices.
'I expect gas prices will jump, but not back to record highs,' De Haan said. 'But the risk is that we see Middle East incidents move beyond borders. Will the violence spread? Will the flow of oil be impacted?'
Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent oil and gasoline prices skyrocketing in early 2022, eventually driving up gas prices to a record of $5.02 a gallon.
Thankfully, energy prices enter this crisis at relatively low levels.
There remains significant uncertainty over just how high gasoline and oil will go because Iran's response is unclear.
Analysts warn that if Iran dramatically escalates the situation by attacking regional energy infrastructure or US military personnel, prices could spike much higher.
'Oil has already spiked… and its ultimate landing point will likely hinge on whether Iran revives the 2019 playbook and targets tankers, pipelines, and key energy facilities across the region,' Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients on Friday.
The big fear is that Iran retaliates by targeting the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow body of water separating the Persian Gulf from global oceans, and the most critical oil chokepoint on the planet. Iran has in the past threatened to do just that.
'In the unlikely scenario of Iran disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz, we could see a significant supply shock with oil prices rising sharply,' Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, wrote in a report on Friday.
That's because about 21 million barrels of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz per day, accounting for about one-fifth of the world's daily consumption, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
But Rystad Energy said that if Iran opts for a more 'limited' response that only focuses on Israeli military sites, the oil market reaction could remain 'contained and temporary.' And that in turn would limit how much gasoline prices increase.
Any effort to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would also have to contend with the US Navy, which is positioned nearby in part due to such a threat.
Croft, a former CIA analyst, said it would be 'extremely difficult for Iran to close the strait for an extended period given the presence of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.'
Still, Croft noted that Iran could attack tankers and mine the waterway to disrupt traffic.
Goldman Sachs estimates that oil prices could blow past $100 a barrel if there is an 'extended disruption' to the Strait of Hormuz, because such an unlikely event could prevent core OPEC producers, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, from ramping up production.
However, Goldman Sachs views a disruption to the Strait of Hormuz as 'much less likely' and on Friday only slightly increased its summertime oil price forecast.
'We still assume no disruptions to oil supply in the Middle East,' Goldman Sachs strategists led by Daan Struyven, co-lead of the bank's commodity research team, wrote in a report to clients.
But if oil prices continue spiking, several steps could be taken to help supply meet demand.
One option is that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations could accelerate recent production increases that began earlier this year.
'If oil is caught in the cross-fire,' RBC's Croft said, 'we anticipate that President Trump will seek OPEC spare barrels to try to keep a lid on prices and shield US consumers from the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.'
Goldman Sachs assumes that if Iranian oil exports plunge by 1.76 million barrels per day during the conflict, core OPEC+ production would make up half of the Iranian shortfall. In that scenario, Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent crude would climb above $90 a barrel before declining back to between $60 and $70 next year.
Another option: The United States and other major oil consumers could release emergency oil stockpiles, as they did in 2022. Former President Joe Biden aggressively drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to prevent gas prices from spiking even higher after Russia invaded Ukraine.
'We're ready to act if needed,' Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said in a post earlier on Friday.
Birol said the IEA, which is an intergovernmental organization that coordinates the use of member states' oil reserves, is 'actively monitoring' the situation and noted that the group's oil security system has more than 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil stockpiles.
OPEC, which represents oil producing countries, strongly pushed back at those comments on Friday.
In a statement on X, OPEC's secretary general argued that the IEA statement 'raises false alarms and projects a sense of market fear through repeating the unnecessary need to potentially use oil emergency stocks.'
Still, releasing emergency oil is an option that Trump could at least hint at to cool off energy prices if the situation in the Middle East escalates.