What's Up with the Wagon Market in the U.S.?

Yahoo

19-03-2025

The U.S. wagon market peaked in the mid-Seventies, when dozens of offerings flooded the category and these middle-class suburban schleppers accounted for 10 percent of new-car sales. In subsequent decades, however, new automotive forms—the minivan, then the SUV—found favor as family haulers, and the longroof's popularity plummeted. It is now at its nadir. In the past five years, wagon sales have flatlined, hovering at just over 1 percent of the U.S. market, and nearly all of that is the Subaru Outback. What about the sport/luxury wagons that we love?
'That's been right around 0.2 percent,' says Alexander Edwards, president of Strategic Vision, a research and consulting firm. 'It's an insignificant part of the market. But even 0.2 percent of 16 million sales is 32,000 cars.' Enough to keep some manufacturers interested, if capriciously.
At the low end of this category, in 2019, Volkswagen discontinued its Golf Alltrack and Golf SportWagen models. After 2023, Mercedes offered its long-running E-class wagon solely in jacked-up 4Matic All-Terrain guise, no longer sending the U.S. the robust AMG E63 iteration. Volvo, which is defined in this country by its wagons, similarly just canceled its V60 T8 Polestar Engineered wagon, offering the States this mid-sizer, and the larger V90, only in lifted Cross Country form.
Meanwhile, BMW has decided to bring its racy, $122,000 M5 Touring to the U.S. for the first time while denying Americans any other 5-series (or 3-series) estates. This echoes Audi's likely strategy shifts. While Audi currently offers its Avant in compelling hot-rod RS6 guise at nearly $128,000, the recently announced replacement of the A4 with the A5 hatchback seems likely to kill off the A4 Allroad wagon here, and the automaker has hinted that the U.S. won't receive the handsome standard next-gen A6 wagon either. Likewise, Porsche has purged American variants of its gas-powered Panamera Sport Turismo wagon while maintaining a half-dozen versions of its electric Taycan Cross Turismo.
Why all of this movement? Well, the pie slice available is minuscule, so automakers battle to cross-section it as best as possible. 'They're trying to use whatever they have to outmaneuver the competition,' says Brian Moody, an analyst at Cox Automotive. 'So if they can offer one little advantage to the buyer, they'll try that. And if that doesn't work, they shift and try something else.'
For BMW and Audi, the decision to lead with boss wagons is predicated on consumer demand. 'We received literally thousands of inquiries from customers asking us to bring the RS6 Avant to the U.S., as the predecessor was not offered in our market,' an Audi spokesperson says. A BMW spokesperson echoes this reasoning: 'We've had an outpouring of customer enthusiasm for high-performance wagons here since the launch of the M3 Touring in other markets.'
These German archrivals also disdain ceding sales to each other, no matter how niche. 'Frankly, we were the creators of the performance-wagon segment with the 1994 RS2, and we have offered RS4, S4, RS6, and S6 Avants over the years,' the Audi spokesperson says, throwing impressive shade. 'So we were ahead of all the competitors.'
Mercedes and Porsche spokespeople both cited diminished market returns from the performance-wagon subsegment as the reason for their departure. But Volvo, which has perhaps the most complex brand relationship with high performance here, seems conflicted about abdicating. The automaker's CEO recently said there's a possibility its future won't have any wagons at all. That doesn't mean all love is gone for its long-roofed models, though.
'There's always been a small group of discerning enthusiasts who also appreciate something rare, unique, and maybe even unexpected,' a Volvo spokesperson says. 'From a volume perspective, a V60 T8 Polestar Engineered is more exclusive than many exotics.'
This sentiment aligns with Strategic Vision's data, which cites these wagons' exclusivity as key to their appeal. 'The thing luxury-wagon buyers want most from their vehicle is a sense of individuality, something that makes them stand apart,' Edwards says. 'A wagon is like a convertible. It's 'I've got a vehicle that nobody else has.''
Yet these vehicles are stealthier than a drop-top. 'They offer great dynamics with exceptional functionality that allows customers to stand out without screaming 'Look at me,'' the Audi spokesperson says. Edwards's findings corroborate this. 'Owners believe these luxury wagons are significantly more refined,' he says, than offerings in other high-performance and exclusive vehicle categories.
Wagon buyers are, not surprisingly, a particular lot. According to Edwards's data, they're 12 percent younger than the average luxury-vehicle buyer. They're 44 percent more likely to identify as Democrats. And they are significantly more likely to live on the coasts. Audi and Mercedes note that of their entire customer base, these owners have some of the highest household incomes, and they are among the most loyal and passionate as well. 'It's such a weird group,' Edwards says, in sum.
So what's the prognosis here for wagons? It's anyone's guess. Volvo's rep hints at shapes that defy categorization. 'As technology evolves,' he says, 'we are confident there will be new styles and approaches that will quickly become as iconic as the wagon.' And against expectations, Audi, Porsche, and Mercedes all suggest that we may see the category diversify, especially given the upcoming electrification offensive. 'Given the handling, aero, range, and other advantages, maybe it's time for the Avant to make a comeback,' the Audi spokesperson says.
Edwards is not so certain. 'My guess is that market share for these vehicles will shrink in 2025 as OEMs offer more unique options,' he says. 'So, consumers who want to express their individuality can do so in other ways—with electrification and other features out there.'
This raises the question of why these automakers send wagons here at all.
'There is still a global marketplace where some of these platforms have some relevance,' Edwards says. 'The Germans and Swedes have always been more interested in wagons. It's part of who they are. So, not doing a wagon seems counterproductive for what they think they represent.' He pauses. 'The real answer is, frankly, hubris.'
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