Euro zone benchmark German 10-year bond yields hits three-week low to 2.4% amid Trump tariffs-led impact
Euro zone benchmark German bond yields were on track on Friday for their biggest weekly decline since mid-April as investors focused on the long-term adverse economic impact of U.S. trade policy.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield was set for a 5-basis-point weekly drop, particularly after falling on Thursday on risks of extended policy and economic paralysis.
On Friday, by 1457 GMT, it was up 1 bp to 2.52% after hitting a three-week low at 2.497% in earlier trade.
A U.S. appeals court reinstated U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Thursday, leaving Wall Street with no clear direction a day after most of the tariffs were blocked by a trade court.
Markets were largely unmoved by German inflation data showing price growth easing further in May closer to the European Central Bank's 2% target, though it was higher than analysts expected.
And euro zone bank lending continued to rebound last month, likely reflecting lower interest rates, separate data showed on Friday.
Focus was also on data showing U.S. consumer spending increasing marginally in April while the Fed's favoured measure of underlying price pressures posted its smallest annual increase in four years.
"U.S. data may play a more instrumental role for euro rates than domestic data, given that a hit to global risk sentiment can bull flatten the euro curve," said Michiel Tukker, senior European rates strategist at ING.
"Yet with 10-year Bunds trading around the level of swaps, markets are already positioned for more headwinds and uncertainty ahead," he added.
The gap between interest rate swaps and Bund yields was at minus 2.4 bps on Friday. It hit its all-time low at around -16 bps in early March. It was around 25 bps in October 2024, before a German political crisis.
Markets price in more than a 90% chance of a 25 bps ECB rate cut next week. They also indicated a deposit facility rate at 1.70% in December, implying two rate cuts and just under a 20% chance of a third easing move by then.
The ECB will almost certainly cut interest rates on June 5, with a more than 70% majority of economists polled by Reuters expecting policymakers to pause for the first time in a year in July despite a weak economy at risk from the U.S.-led trade war.
Italy's 10-year yield was last up 2 bps to 3.52%, after dropping to 3.488%, its lowest level in nearly 3 months. It was on track for a weekly drop of 11 bps, the most since mid-April.
The gap between Italian and German yields was at 97 bps after reaching 89.8 bps on Thursday, its lowest since February 2021.
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Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Resource war: How commercial assets turned into front line weaponry
Chennai: Recently, J.D. Vance, the US vice president, confirmed what the world feared. He termed the competition between the US and China in developing artificial intelligence (AI) as an 'arms race'. Policy makers in both the countries believe that whoever wins this race will dominate the world, going forward. At the core of this battle is computing power and this has given a fresh impetus to the chip war that began between the US and China five years ago. In May 2020, during his first term as the president of the US, Donald Trump fired the first salvo. The US commerce department added Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies to the 'Entity List', a measure which prevented the company that sells smartphones, telecom equipment and cloud computing services from accessing advanced computer chips produced or developed using US technology or software. The reason? The US feared that Huawei's attractively priced products, backed by Chinese government subsidy, would soon dominate the next generation telecom networks, ending American clout in the field. The move had a debilitating impact on Huawei. Its global expansion took a hit and revenue crashed. 'A corporate giant faced technological asphyxiation," Chris Miller, in his book Chip War, wrote. According to him, this development reminded China of its weakness. 'In nearly every step of the process of producing semiconductors, China is staggeringly dependent on foreign technology, almost all of which is controlled by its geopolitical rivals—Taiwan, Japan, South Korea or the US," he wrote. China began investing billions of dollars to develop its own semiconductor technology in a bid to free itself from America's chip choke, he added. But the US is in no mood to make this endeavour easy for China. It has progressively tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor sector. The 'Entity List' has since grown to include over 140 Chinese companies—fabrication units, semiconductor tool companies and even investment companies that operate in the sector. Restrictions have extended from chips with high bandwidth memory to semiconductor manufacturing equipment and software tools. China, which sees US restrictions as an attempt to deny it the technological greatness it deserves, has retaliated. It began imposing restrictions on export of critical and rare earth minerals that are crucial for production of weapons, semiconductors and electric vehicles. There are 17 rare earth minerals and China has absolute control on most of them (see chart). In October 2023, it introduced export permits for graphite needed to produce lithium ion batteries. In December that year, it banned transfer of rare earth minerals extraction and separation technologies and the technology to make magnets. China, over the years, has mastered these technologies. In the same month, it banned the export of antimony, gallium and germanium apart from imposing stricter review of graphite exports to the US. In February 2025, in response to Donald Trump imposing 10% tariffs on all Chinese products, the middle kingdom added five more critical minerals— tungsten, indium, bismuth, tellurium and molybdenum to the export control list. This meant that companies require special export licenses to export the minerals. On 4 April, after Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, China further added seven more minerals and magnets to the export restrictions list. There is no clarity whether these restrictions have been suspended after the recent US and China trade talks in Geneva. The US is now scrambling to find alternate sources for these minerals. All of a sudden, economic resources which were till recently seen predominantly as commercial assets, have acquired new edge as strategic instruments. They are no longer controlled just by the market— geopolitics has a greater say over them. A short history Demand for resources began to rise after the Industrial Revolution in 1760 which introduced the use of metals such as iron and steel. The rise of mechanized factory systems increased output and thus, demand for resources. As the demand rose, countries such as Great Britain, France and Belgium began colonizing the world in search of resources. 'Colonization was all about exploitation of natural resources," said S. Gurumurthy, writer and a corporate advisor. The British empire met its demand for cotton, tea, leather, coal and iron ore from India for almost two centuries, he added. Post World War II, resources were seen as market instruments. They were freely traded for a price. According to the World Trade Organization, between 1950 and 2024, global trade volumes grew by 4,500%. 'It was also a period when countries used trade to increase co-dependence in the hope that it would enhance peace and welfare," Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director, Observer Research Foundation — America, said. Europe bought gas from Russia in the hope that the latter would leave them alone. The US built a strong economic relationship with China on the assumption that the Asian nation could integrate with the global economy, eliminate poverty, and embrace democratic principles. Of course, trade in resources has not been entirely free. Nations have imposed restrictions. In the last 75 years, the US is the biggest culprit. As a sole super power, it denied various countries technology and resources that it deemed were dual use—for both civil and military applications. As the US-China rivalry intensifies, the weaponization is spilling beyond dual use technologies. China, it appears, is not loath to leveraging the domination it has built in the global economy. The new normal China accounts for more than 30% of global manufacturing output. This is the highest concentration of manufacturing in one place," said Jaishankar. The US had a similar share for a short period of time immediately after World War II when the protracted war had destroyed much of production facilities in mainland Europe and Japan. 'China has managed to achieve this without a war," he said, adding 'it is now trying to use its manufacturing power as a strategic leverage." It is not just manufacturing. Consider China's domination in the shipping space. It controls over 100 ports across 63 nations. As of 2022, it had 96% share in container production, 48% of global ship building orders and 80% of ship-to-shore cranes. It has similar domination across many sectors. 'What is worrying is that China has revealed its intention to weaponize goods, logistics or the entire supply chain," said an Indian government official who did not want to be identified. There is a conscious attempt by China to make the world depend on it. Simultaneously, it is reducing its dependence on the world. The restriction on export of rare earth minerals is just a beginning, he added. The resentment For more than four decades, China had silently focused on growing its economy. It eased rules to attract manufacturing taking advantage of its low wage costs. It invested in infrastructure—power, roads, ports and airports. It enabled building factories at unheard of scale which substantially reduced the cost of production. Global brands rushed to China to take advantage of it. Until a few years ago, 85% of all iPhone produced by Apple were assembled in China. At one point in time, almost all of Nike's shoes were produced in China. There were warnings within the US about this excessive dependence. Michael Pillsbury's book, The Hundred-Year Marathon, detailed China's secret desire to upstage the US as a global superpower. He, indeed many others, pointed out that China harboured a deep resentment and a sense of injury for losing its status as a middle kingdom when it dominated the world—economically, culturally and militarily. In the early 1700s, China (and India) had a large share of the world economy. On the eve of the Industrial Revolution, in 1760, it accounted for a third of the global economy. In the two centuries that followed, it lost out significantly. By 1979, China's share of the global economy was just 2%. Chinese consider the period between 1839 and 1945 a 'century of humiliation' that saw political fragmentation, decline and subjugation by foreign powers such as Russia, Japan and the West. The Chinese yearned to regain this lost glory. Today, China has 19% share in the global GDP, fast catching up with the US' 27%. Late wakeup call Policy makers in the US, for years, took a benign view of China's growth. Pillsbury pointed out that they saw their China policy as a commercial win and ignored the strategic dimension. Only when China began to assert itself, did they realise the depth of US' dependence on China and its real motive. It is not a surprise that Pillsbury, as Trump's advisor, is the architect of US' China policy now. Today, the US and China are engaged in a contest. The US is playing to its strength by denying advanced technology to China. By focusing on the massive $295 trade deficit (in 2024) and imposing massive tariffs, the Trump administration wants to reduce its dependence. China, for its part, is thinking long term to upstage the US. Lizzi Lee, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Centre for China Analysis, best described its strategy in a recent Financial Times article. He wrote: 'Xi is not looking to win the trade war in a conventional sense. He's positioning China for a drawn-out, grinding, contest by building domestic capacity, hardening supply chain and rooting out perceived vulnerabilities to foreign pressure." India play As the US and China fight for supremacy, India needs to have a strategy to deal with the fallout. 'Countries, be it China or the US, have exclusive rights over their resources. Weaponizing such resources is the new normal," said Ajay Srivastava, founder, Global Trade Research Initiative, a trade focussed think tank. India needs to put in place policies to minimise the impact of such decisions. India should identify and develop resources that the world would need and use it as a bargaining chip, he added. 'India may lack such resources now but we need to identify those and invest now," Gurumurthy added. China, Jaishankar said, does not have all the resources within its nation. It had worked assiduously to tap these critical minerals across the world, especially from African nations. China's strength, he added, is in developing the ability to process them in an effective manner. 'India needs to follow a similar strategy. We should strike deals with nations which have these resources and import the mineral for processing in India. That will give us control over it," he explained. India has already drawn up a list of critical minerals and has taken steps to secure them. It is part of the Mineral Security Partnership, a multi-nation initiative led by the US comprising 40 countries. It has struck, or is close to striking, a few deals in Latin America and Africa. But processing the minerals is easier said than done. It is capital intensive and requires a long lead time. Investors don't support such projects unless there is a strong business case. Experts have also suggested that India should frame policies to suit its strengths. Some have questioned pushing electrification of vehicles in a big way. With India lacking the raw material to make batteries, the rise in electric vehicles will shift India's energy dependence from West Asia to China. Others have recommended that India should invest heavily in taking a lead in green hydrogen. India is blessed with abundant sunlight and focus on storage systems can help it use solar power to drive green hydrogen efforts. India's efforts, such as production-linked incentives, have cut its dependence on China for solar cells and modules. More needs to be done if India has to become self-sufficient. To make all this possible, the country, particularly its private sector, would need to invest in research and development. If there is one thing that can come in India's way is its hubris, warned experts. 'What is needed is a long term vision and a step-by-step approach to achieve it," GTRI's Srivastava said.
Hindustan Times
an hour ago
- Hindustan Times
What is EB-5 visa? Indian students explore new path as Trump administration tightens immigration laws
An increasing number of Indians are now choosing a different path as the US tightens its immigration laws and current immigrants are subject to greater scrutiny under the Donald Trump administration. The Economic Times reported that immigration lawyers have witnessed over 100 percent increase in EB-5 petitions from Indian students in the last four to five months. With an investment of $800,000 (about ₹7 crore), overseas investors reportedly can obtain a Green Card or permanent residency via this EB-5 procedure. However, it has restricted only 700 sets for India. In contrast to other years, there has been a significant rise in EB-5 petitions despite the restricted number of seats. Also Read: Over 69,000 Indian students hit hard as ICE targets OPT program with strict warning letters Speaking to ET, Rajneesh Pathak, founder of the immigration law company Global North Residency and Citizenship, said: 'Unlike previous years, when we had most-ly H-1B visa holders applying, the interest from F-1 visa holders has risen by 100% over the last few months.' According to the study, the US Immigration Fund (USIF), which operates EB-5 Regional Centers, has witnessed a 100% increase in F-1 visa holders applying for EB-5 visas since January of this year as compared to 2024, when the majority of candidates were H-1B holders. The Donald Trump administration significantly cancelled the visas of more than 300 overseas students this year due to their alleged participation in 'campus activism' and 'engagement with anti-national content' on social media. According to reports, the US Department of State (DOS) sent emails to thousands of students telling them that their F-1 visas have been terminated and that they are required to use the CBP Home App for self-deportation. Indian students and H-1B holders are now very interested in pursuing the EB-5 visa path. According to the report, the majority of international applicants for EB-5 are in highly competitive industries including computer science, biotechnology, and finance. The US Citizenship and Immigration Services states that investors (as well as their spouses and unmarried children under 21) can submit applications for legal permanent residence (a Green Card) under this program. This is possible only if they invest the required amount in a US-based business; Plan to create or maintain 10 permanent full-time jobs for eligible US workers. Participants in this program are granted an employment-based fifth preference visa, which is called EB-5.
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Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business Standard
Indian steel companies eye robust growth in FY26 on improved spreads
Indian steelmakers are eyeing stronger growth this financial year (FY26), supported by the recent safeguard duty on imports and improved steel spreads. However, China remains a wildcard. Steel imports started dropping in the lead-up to the government's provisional safeguard duty – a measure aimed at protecting domestic producers from a flood of cheap imports. Data from price reporting and market intelligence firm BigMint showed that India's steel imports fell 21 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in January-April 2025 to 2.85 million tonnes (mt). Imports from China stood at 1.11 mt in the same period previous year, which reduced to 0.50 mt during January-April 2025. This reflected on steel prices. The monthly average for hot rolled coil (HRC) ex-Mumbai increased from ₹46,878 per tonne in December to ₹52,033 per tonne in April. It was at the same level in May 2025, while the average in May 2024 was at ₹54,100 per tonne. Post-safeguard steel prices have not increased to the extent that was anticipated. 'There are concerns around Chinese steel prices, which are trending down. Moreover, it continues to push volumes into the rest of the world,' said Ranjan Dhar, director and vice-president – sales and marketing at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India) US President Donald Trump on Friday announced that he would be increasing tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50 per cent from 25 per cent. According to a report by Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India exported $4.56 billion worth of iron, steel, and aluminium products to the US in FY25 with key categories, including $587.5 million in iron and steel, $3.1 billion in iron or steel articles, and $860 million in aluminium and related articles. 'These exports are now exposed to sharply higher US tariffs threatening the profitability of Indian producers and exporters,' the report mentioned. Dhar said that there would be no direct impact on Indian carbon steel, which already faces anti-dumping duty (ADD), countervailing duty (CVD), and Section 232. 'It's clear that in the era of trade barriers, if any country remains open or does not have adequate protection, its domestic industry will be impacted.' 'Chinese exports are still very high and a big concern for everyone. They should voluntarily regulate production close to their domestic consumption,' he added. 'The latest US announcement may result in a higher steel diversion risk into India. It will also stop small volume exports to the US,' said another major carbon steel producer. On April 21, 2025, following an investigation and recommendation by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), the Indian government imposed a 12 per cent provisional safeguard duty following a surge in low-cost imports. The safeguard duty was expected to impose a $60 per tonne additional levy for import of HRC. But falling Chinese steel prices and rupee strengthening have taken away half of its benefit,' said Ritabrata Ghosh, vice-president, Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (Icra). According to a media report, the government is said to review the possibility of increasing the safeguard duty to 24 per cent. The industry demand was 25 per cent. Between February and May 2025, Chinese HRC prices have decreased from $470 a tonne to $455 per tonne. 'This can weigh on Indian steel prices going forward, even as the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26) is expected to be strong on the back of higher steel prices and lower coking coal prices,' Ghosh said. Steel prices started appreciating from January, but Q4FY25 is believed not to have captured it in full. 'The pricing environment has improved from Q4FY25 to Q1FY26. I see a potential improvement of about ₹3,250 per tonne on an average basis from the lows seen in the past few months,' said Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Jayant Acharya, JSW Steel joint. 'We should continue to watch China. Their exports are still high, at about 10 mt a month. In Q4, we have seen a drop in Chinese imports into India, primarily in anticipation of safeguard duty and prices also hitting a low,' he added. According to Acharya, India is vulnerable given the strong domestic demand and changing global tariff dynamics. 'We will have to remain vigilant and proactive to implement necessary trade measures in time.' Sehul Bhatt, director- Research, Crisil Intelligence, said: Chinese finished steelmakers have pumped up exports in the recent past, to 111 mt in calendar 2024 from 94 mt in 2023 and 64 mt in 2022. 'The trend continued in Q1FY26 with export volume rising 6.4 per cent Y-o-Y.' One of the reasons behind limited export opportunities for domestic steelmakers is competitively priced Chinese products. However, given that 97 per cent of India's steel demand is met locally, the domestic steel sector is relatively insulated from tariff changes abroad, he added. Crisil Intelligence has forecasted domestic steel demand to grow 9-10 per cent Y-o-Y in FY26.
