Trump's meeting with Putin could determine the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war

Time of India

3 days ago

U.S. President
Donald Trump
is meeting face-to-face with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday for a high-stakes summit that could determine not only the trajectory of the war in Ukraine but also the fate of European security.
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The sit-down offers Trump a chance to prove to the world that he is both a master dealmaker and a global peacemaker. He and his allies have cast him as a heavyweight negotiator who can find a way to bring the slaughter to a close, something he used to boast he could do quickly.
For Putin, a summit with Trump offers a
long-sought opportunity
to try to negotiate a deal that would cement Russia's gains, block Kyiv's bid to join the
NATO military alliance
and eventually pull Ukraine back into Moscow's orbit.
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There are significant risks for Trump. By bringing Putin onto U.S. soil, the president is giving Russia's leader the validation he desires after his ostracization following his invasion of Ukraine 3 1/2 years ago. The exclusion of Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
from the summit also deals a heavy blow to the West's policy of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" and invites the possibility that Trump could agree to a deal that Ukraine does not want.
Any success is far from assured, especially as Russia and Ukraine remain far apart in their demands for
peace
. Putin has long resisted any temporary ceasefire, linking it to a halt in Western arms supplies and a freeze on Ukraine's mobilization efforts, which were conditions rejected by Kyiv and its Western allies.
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"HIGH STAKES!!!" Trump posted on
Truth Social
as his motorcade idled outside the
White House
shortly after sunrise, about an hour before he boarded Air Force One.
On his way to Alaska, Putin stopped in Magadan in Russia's Far East, where on Friday he visited a factory producing omega-3 fish oil capsules, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti. Putin will review materials on Ukraine, bilateral tensions, economic cooperation and global affairs during his four-hour flight to Anchorage, where he will be greeted at his plane by Trump, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with Russian state TV.
Trump on Thursday said there was a 25% chance that the summit would fail, but he also floated the idea that if the meeting succeeds he could bring Zelenskyy to Alaska for a subsequent, three-way meeting, a possibility that Russia hasn't agreed to.
When asked in Anchorage about Trump's estimate of a 25% chance of failure, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters that Russia "never plans ahead."
"We know that we have arguments, a clear, understandable position. We will state it," he said in footage posted to the Russian Foreign Ministry's
Telegram
channel.
Trump said in a Fox News radio interview Thursday that he didn't know if they would get "an immediate ceasefire" but he wanted a broad peace deal done quickly. That seemingly echoes Putin's longtime argument that Russia favors a comprehensive deal to end the fighting, reflecting its demands, not a temporary halt to hostilities.
The Kremlin said Trump and Putin will first sit down for a one-on-one discussion, followed by the two delegations meeting and talks continuing over "a working breakfast." They are then expected to hold a joint press conference.
Trump has offered shifting explanations for his meeting goals In the days leading up to the summit, set for a military base near Anchorage, Trump described it as " really a feel-out meeting." But he's also warned of "very severe consequences" for Russia if Putin doesn't agree to end the war and said that though Putin might bully other leaders, "He's not going to mess around with me."
Trump said Friday his talks with Putin will include Russian demands that Ukraine cede territory as part of a peace deal. He said Ukraine has to decide, but he also suggested Zelenskyy should accept concessions.
"I've got to let Ukraine make that decision. And I think they'll make a proper decision," Trump told reporters traveling with him to Alaska.
Trump said there's "a possibility" of the United States offering Ukraine security guarantees alongside European powers, "but not in the form of NATO." Putin has fiercely resisted Ukraine joining the trans-Atlantic security alliance, a long-term goal for Ukrainians seeking to forge stronger ties with the West.
Zelenskyy has time and again cast doubts on Putin's willingness to negotiate in good faith. His European allies, who've held increasingly urgent meetings with U.S. leaders over the past week, have stressed the need for Ukraine to be involved in any peace talks.
Political commentators in Moscow, meanwhile, have relished that the summit leaves Ukraine and its European allies on the sidelines.
Dmitry Suslov, a pro-Kremlin voice, expressed hope that the summit will "deepen a trans-Atlantic rift and weaken Europe's position as the toughest enemy of Russia."
The summit could have far-reaching implications Foreign governments will be watching closely to see how Trump reacts to Putin, likely gauging what the interaction might mean for their own dealings with the U.S. president, who has eschewed traditional diplomacy for his own transactional approach to relationships.
The meeting comes as the war has caused heavy losses on both sides and drained resources.
Ukraine has held on far longer than some initially expected since the February 2022 invasion, but it is straining to hold off Russia's much larger army, grappling with bombardments of its cities and fighting for every inch on the over 600-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said U.S. antagonists like China, Iran and North Korea will be paying attention to Trump's posture to see "whether or not the threats that he continues to make against Putin are indeed credible."
"Or, if has been the past track record, he continues to back down and look for ways to wiggle out of the kind of threats and pressure he has promised to apply," said Kendall-Taylor, who is also a former senior intelligence officer.
While some have objected to the location of the summit, Trump has said he thought it was "very respectful" of Putin to come to the U.S. instead of a meeting in Russia.
Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin Moscow-based analyst, observed that the choice of Alaska as the summit's venue "underlined the distancing from Europe and Ukraine."
Being on a military base allows the leaders to avoid protests and meet more securely, but the location carries its own significance because of its history and location.
Alaska, which the U.S. purchased from Russia in 1867, is separated from Russia at its closest point by just 3 miles (less than 5 kilometers) and the international date line.
Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson was crucial to countering the Soviet Union during the Cold War. It continues to play a role today, as planes from the base still intercept Russian aircraft that regularly fly into U.S. airspace.