Democrats are scrambling to figure out what Mamdani's win means for the party

Politico

4 hours ago

Seven years later, Democrats still don't have a playbook for when a socialist from New York pulls off an upset against an establishment politician.
Zohran Mamdani's all-but-certain victory in Tuesday's New York City mayoral primary sent shockwaves through the party, leaving national Democrats to grapple with the implications of the charismatic 33-year-old firebrand's win over the better-funded, establishment-backed and scandal-ridden Andrew Cuomo, who resigned as governor amid sexual harassment allegations. Progressives see a roadmap for Democrats to take back power, while moderates worry that New York City voters have just handed President Donald Trump a cudgel to beat them with during the 2026 midterm elections.
It's serving up a painfully familiar Rorschach test for a party driven out of power, as Democrats from across the ideological spectrum pick out evidence from New York City's results to support their own theories for 2026 and the presidential election two years later. And it has reenergized divides — progressive versus moderate, establishment versus outsider, young versus old — that continue to plague the party after last year's presidential election.
Mamdani senior strategist Morris Katz urged Democrats to 'embrace candidates with vision and authenticity.' Anti-Cuomo super PAC adviser Lauren Hitt said it was a 'clear rejection of the old guard.' And Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.), who toppled a progressive incumbent in 2024, cited Mamdani's relentless focus on 'the cost of living.'
'For moderates and wealthy Democratic donors, the reaction is, this is horrible and it's going to ruin us. For center-left Democrats who don't necessarily support Mamdani's policies, the reaction is, this is a rejection of the Democratic establishment and Mamdani ran a great campaign against a sex offender,' said Tim Lim, a Democratic strategist and fundraiser. 'And for progressives, they believe this is what happens when you listen to voters.'
Cuomo had been seen as the clear frontrunner for months, but Mamdani shocked the party on Tuesday night when he won a plurality of first-round votes. His apparent victory, which the Associated Press has not yet called, is expected to be confirmed once election officials reallocate votes next week under the city's ranked-choice voting system.
Tuesday night's results, however, are already rippling through next year's midterms and the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, and the scramble to make sense of Mamdani's apparent victory quickly became a fight over defining the party's future.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) told POLITICO Mamdani's win showed Democratic leadership is 'way out of touch' and is 'probably more willing to go down with the Titanic' than try something new. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, both New York Democrats, said they spoke with Mamdani in the morning but stopped short of endorsing his general election bid on Wednesday. (Mamdani plans to meet with both men in person in the coming days, said a person close to Mamdani.)
Some House Democrats are already worried that Mamdani's success could embolden primary challengers against Democratic incumbents who see their campaigns as referendums on age and complacency. As if to hammer that point home, Run for Something, a progressive group that helps young people run for office, saw an immediate spike in sign-ups Tuesday night.
'This is a sign that the establishment is not unbeatable,' said Amanda Litman, co-founder of the group.
Kevin Lata, a co-founder of the Leaders We Deserve PAC that has pledged to spend millions to oust Democratic incumbents it considers ineffective, said the group was ready to offer candidates financial support.
Progressives energized by the results are already urging Michael Blake and Brad Lander, who also ran mayoral campaigns that fell to Mamdani on Tuesday, to challenge New York Democratic Reps. Ritchie Torres and Dan Goldman. Blake didn't respond to a request for comment, and Lander's campaign declined to comment.
Democrats looking around the corner to the 2028 presidential primary were also eager for signs about the electorate's mood.
Advisers to potential 2028 Democratic candidates who, like others for this story, were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations, said Mamdani's campaign — led by a 33-year-old candidate savvy on social media and focused on affordability — is a promising blueprint for several of the contenders who want to style themselves as the party's next generation. Some suggested the energy on display in New York City is a sign that liberal contenders may have an advantage over more moderate ones who have sought to emphasize bipartisanship and work with Trump where they can.
'It says to me that JB Pritzker, who is more progressive, more aggressive against Trump, is maybe in a better spot right now than [Gretchen] Whitmer, who represents more of the heads-down approach,' said one Democratic operative who advises 2028 candidates, referring to the governors of Illinois and Michigan, respectively.
Lakshya Jain, a Democratic election data expert, said early results 'hint at an anti-establishment energy' for 2028, but 'I wouldn't say it's anti-moderate — rather anti-establishment, so I don't think it's about ideology, it's about something that's new and fresh.'
Mamdani's advisers and allies don't think there's much of a mystery as to why he did so well.
'It's pretty fucking simple. Take on the billionaires who are destroying the economy. Fight for working people,' said Katz, the senior strategist to Mamdani's campaign. 'Zohran is a generational talent and that can't be replicated, but what can be is a politics of courage and authenticity.'
Several operatives named Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) as one to watch. The progressive icon has toured the country with Sanders and backed Mamdani. Some hope she'll mount a Senate primary against Schumer — or even a presidential run — in 2028.
But while many Democrats were panicking or celebrating Mamdani's win, some argued that a New York mayoral primary won't apply to other races.
'Moderates shouldn't overreact,' the 2028 adviser said. 'A moderate candidate has ultimately won the Democratic [presidential] primary for years.'
A second adviser to a potential 2028 candidate argued that 'electability will be far more at the center of the Democratic presidential primary than it was in the mayoral race.'
Several Democrats pointed to the results earlier this month out of New Jersey, where moderate Rep. Mikie Sherrill won a crowded party primary for governor. She has been heralded as the future of the party alongside Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who was unopposed in her primary for governor of Virginia.
Others struck a cautionary note about overreading the race — after all, four years ago, Eric Adams was the model for the Democratic Party moving forward and 'the Biden of Brooklyn.'
But some moderate Democrats are privately deeply worried that Mamdani's victory could have aftershocks for the party in general elections, not just primaries. One Democratic strategist said Mamdani could 'absolutely hurt our brand,' comparing him to Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, who has been beset by an abysmally low approval rating.
'Candidates further to the left can be successful not because of where they fall ideologically, but because they're liked and trusted. So can moderate candidates,' said Molly Murphy, a Democratic pollster who worked on Kamala Harris' campaign.
Two Democrats in suburban New York swing districts were quick to distance themselves from Mamdani, seeing him as a potential liability with the center of the electorate. Rep. Laura Gillen, who represents a battleground district on Long Island, posted on social media that Mamdami was 'too extreme to lead New York City,' and Rep. Tom Suozzi, whose district in Queens and the surrounding suburbs voted for Trump, said 'concerns remain' about Mamdami.
'He's focused on affordability, that's great. Young, charismatic, great communicator. All that is great. We want to see that,' said Matt Bennett, who co-founded the center-left Third Way. 'The problem is he has the wrong prescription.'
Republicans, he noted, 'are already weaponizing' Mamdani 'against other Democrats,' as the GOP has moved to make Mamdani the face of the Democratic Party.
Rep. George Latimer (D-N.Y.), who unseated a Democratic socialist in a primary last cycle, batted aside those concerns.
'The Republicans always try to define us in a way that they think will be successful in their campaigns,' he said. 'Our candidates here and everywhere else, we have to break through and make it about who we are and what we believe as individuals.'
Some put it more bluntly. Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.) scoffed at the idea that Mamdani could be a motivating factor in the 2026 midterms for Republicans: 'Good luck with that. He hasn't even won the general election and I have trouble remembering his name at this point.'
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), a former member of House leadership who is considered a likely gubernatorial candidate in the Empire State in 2026, reveled in the idea of using Mamdani as a foil.
'Every Democrat will have to answer for this, just like for years, Republicans have had to answer proudly for President Trump,' she said.
Stefanik did caution: 'I think it'll really only play in the midterms if he wins the general election.'
Jeff Coltin, Madison Fernandez and Adam Wren contributed to this report.