Update 2025 record projections for Big Ten football teams, per ESPN FPI

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Update 2025 record projections for Big Ten football teams, per ESPN FPI
There are a lot of eyes on the Big Ten Conference going into the 2025 college football season, with the Ohio State Buckeyes looking to defend their national championship with the Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Indiana Hoosiers work to repeat as College Football Playoff teams.
It will be a fun season in the conference, with a lot of new faces in new places and a handful of intriguing contenders trying to insert themselves into the top tier of teams alongside the Buckeyes, Ducks, Nittany Lions, and Hoosiers.
While those teams have much of the attention at the top, there are also some intriguing storylines throughout the conference. Will UCLA be able to take a step forward with Nico Iamaleava Jr. at the helm? Will Mark Gronowski be able to overhaul Iowa's offense? Can Wisconsin get things going at long last this year under Luke Fickell? Will anyone step up and be this year's version of 2024 Indiana?
All of those questions will be answered in months. Following the spring season, we took our stab at predicting the win-loss records for every Big Ten team, and with the release of ESPN's Football Power Index earlier this month, we have another set of data points to work with.
Let's take a look at how ESPN predicts the season will shake out for the Big Ten teams:
No. 18 — Purdue Boilermakers
ESPN Record Projection: 3.2-8.8
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 2-10 (0-9 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Ball State, Southern Illinois
Projected Losses: USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Indiana
Despite bringing in Barry Odom as the new head coach, I don't think it will be a very successful year yet again for Purdue. They can pick up a couple of early non-conference wins, but I don't see a quick turnaround coming any time soon.
No. 17 — Northwestern Wildcats
ESPN Record Projection: 4.1-7.9
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Western Illinois, Louisiana-Monroe, Purdue
Projected Losses: Tulane, Oregon, UCLA, Penn State, Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois
The Wildcats were a nice story a couple of years ago with David Braun as the interim coach, but they regressed back to the mean last season and will probably stay there in 2025 as well. A season-opener against Tulane could prove tough, and the Big Ten schedule doesn't set up very nicely with games against Oregon, Penn State, USC, and Illinois down the stretch.
No. 16 — Michigan State Spartans
ESPN Record Projection: 5.2-6.8
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State, UCLA, Iowa, Maryland
Projected Losses: USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State
In year two under Jonathan Smith, it's not hard to imagine that the Michigan State Spartans take a bit of a step forward. They have the talent to be, at the very least, solid in the Big Ten, assuming that quarterback Aiden Chiles continues to improve and can cut down on his turnover numbers. The schedule sets up pretty favorably as well, with no games against Oregon or Ohio State on the schedule.
For more Michigan State news and analysis, check out Spartans Wire!
No. 15 — UCLA Bruins
ESPN Record Projection: 5.4-6.6
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 4-6 (2-7 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: UNLV, New Mexico State, Northwestern, Maryland,
Projected Losses: Utah, Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State, Washington, USC
How good will Nico Iamaleava Jr. be in his first year with the Bruins? The real question is how good will the Bruins be outside of Iamaleava to allow for overall team success? I see UCLA winning a few games, but as far as being a name to know in the Big Ten, I think we might need another year.
For more UCLA news and analysis, check out UCLA Wire!
No. 14 — Wisconsin Badgers
ESPN Record Projection: 5.6-6.5
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Miami (OH), Middle Tennessee, Maryland, Minnesota
Projected Losses: Alabama, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, Indiana, Illinois
If Luke Fickell is going to make his mark at Wisconsin, he needs to do it this year. While the Badgers draw tough games against Ohio State, Oregon, and Illinois, they could compete with the rest of the Big Ten teams on the docket.
For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire!
No. 13 — Rutgers Scarlet Knights
ESPN Record Projection: 5.8-6.2
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 5-7 (2-7 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Ohio, Miami (OH), Norfolk State, Purdue, Rutgers
Projected Losses: Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State
Rutgers may be able to surprise a few people this year, with Kaliakmanis still under center, but I don't think they will be contending for a conference title any time soon. Unfortunately, the Scarlet Knights draw the big three in the conference, with Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State all on the schedule.
No. 12 — Maryland Terrapins
ESPN Record Projection: 5.9-6.1
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: FAU, Northern Illinois, Towson, Rutgers
Projected Losses: Wisconsin, Washington, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State
Will this be the year that a below-average season leads Mike Locksley to the exit? You'd have to think that would be the case after winning just 33 of his last 75 games for the Terrapins. There are a few easy non-conference games on the schedule, but I don't see any reason to believe that Maryland will make a leap in the Big Ten this year. At some point, it's time to cut ties.
No. 11 — Iowa Hawkeyes
ESPN Record Projection: 6.2-5.8
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Albany, UMass, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska
Projected Losses: Iowa State, Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, USC, Michigan State
Much to the dismay of Hawkeyes fans, I foresee another ho-hum year for Iowa, where they struggle to contend with the top teams in the conference but can manage their way through the middle. Games against Penn State and Oregon will be tough, and an early non-conference clash with Iowa State won't be easy, but outside of that, the Hawkeyes should be able to win a few.
For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire!
No. 10 — Illinois Fighting Illini
ESPN Record Projection: 6.8-5.2
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Western Illinois, Western Michigan, Indiana, USC, Purdue, Washington, Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern
Projected Losses: Duke, Ohio State
Many people are pegging Illinois to be this year's version of Indiana in the Big Ten this year, seeing as they return a lot of players, particularly on offense, and have a favorable schedule. Should the Illini get past Duke early in the season, it could be pretty smooth sailing until they face Ohio State at home midway through the year. This could certainly be a team that is hanging around near the top of the standings late in the year.
No. 9 — Minnesota Golden Gophers
ESPN Record Projection: 6.9-5.2
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 7-5 (4-5 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Buffalo, Northwestern State, Rutgers, Purdue, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Projected Losses: Cal, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, Oregon
We know that PJ Fleck is a solid coach, and with the right pieces, he can make some noise in the conference. I'm not sure that we see Minnesota taking a big jump this year, considering they are a bit unproven at the QB position, but they can certainly compete with some other middle-of-the-road teams in the Big Ten.
No. 8 — Washington Huskies
ESPN Record Projection: 7.1-4.9
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Colorado State, UC Davis, Washington State, Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA
Projected Losses: Ohio State, Illinois, Oregon
Nobody likes to discredit Washington more than Oregon fans, but even I have to admit that they could be pretty good this year. With Demond Williams under center and Jedd Fisch calling things, the Huskies' schedule is set up pretty favorably. Games against Ohio State, Illinois, and Oregon will all be tough, but they are at home in Seattle for all of them.
For more Washington news and analysis, check out Huskies Wire!
No. 7 — Indiana Hoosiers
ESPN Record Projection: 7.5-4.5
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Iowa, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue
Projected Losses: Illinois, Oregon, Penn State
Indiana was the story of the Big Ten last year, thanks to some elite coaching from Curt Cignetti and great quarterback play from Kurtis Rourke. They were also beneficiaries of a favorable schedule. Will their success continue in 2025? It will depend on Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza, who has the talent necessary to get the Hoosiers back into contention for the Big Ten title. The Hoosiers do have to play both Oregon and Penn State on the road, though, which is tough.
No. 6 — Nebraska Cornhuskers
ESPN Record Projection: 7.5-4.5
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Cincinnati, Akron, Houston Christian, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, UCLA
Projected Losses: USC, Penn State, Iowa
If Dylan Raiola is as good as we were led to believe that he is, then this is when we should start to see it. I think that Nebraska is talented enough to compete at a high level in the Big Ten, and their schedule sets up for it this year, with no Ohio State or Oregon on the docket. Games against USC, Penn State, and Iowa will act as big tests, but this team could surprise some people when all is said and done.
For more Nebraska news and analysis, check out Cornhuskers Wire!
No. 5 — USC Trojans
ESPN Record Projection: 8.3-3.9
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 9-3 (7-2 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, UCLA
Projected Losses: Illinois, Notre Dame, Oregon
Assuming that Lincoln Riley can get some above-average quarterback play this year, USC could finally get out of the middle of the pack in the Big Ten and make a little bit of noise once November rolls around. They get to miss both Penn State and Ohio State on the schedule, but the yearly non-conference game against Notre Dame and a trip up to Eugene against the Ducks in November will be tough to handle.
For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire!
No. 4 — Michigan Wolverines
ESPN Record Projection: 8.4-3.7
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: New Mexico State, Central Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland
Projected Losses: Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC, Washington, Ohio State
How good is Bryce Underwood going to be as a freshman? The answer to that question likely determines how good the Wolverines can be in 2025. They are talented on both sides of the ball, and if the true freshman QB can get over the learning curve quickly, they can play at the upper-middle tier of the conference. No games against Oregon or Penn State also help the projections.
For more Michigan news and analysis, check out Wolverines Wire!
No. 3 — Oregon Ducks
ESPN Record Projection: 10.0-2.4
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Indiana, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, USC, Washington
Projected Losses: Penn State
There is one game on the schedule that could be really tough for the Ducks — at Penn State in Happy Valley — but other than that, this is a manageable schedule that could lead to a lot of wins. You don't have Ohio State or Michigan, and you get USC at home. While Oregon will have to head up to Seattle for the rivalry against Washington, they should be able to handle this slate just fine.
For more Oregon news and analysis, check out Ducks Wire!
No. 2 — Penn State Nittany Lions
ESPN Record Projection: 10.2-2.2
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Nevada, Florida International, Villanova, Oregon, UCLA, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers
Projected Losses: Ohio State
Penn State is getting a lot of preseason respect, being ranked well inside the top five almost unanimously across the board, and being named the No. 1 team by ESPN. It makes sense, seeing as they return a lot of starters from last year's College Football Playoff team. As always, The question remains whether they can win the big games. Oregon and Ohio State come to Happy Valley in 2025. Can James Franklin get it done? I say he goes 1-1.
For more Penn State news and analysis, check out Nittany Lions Wire!
No. 1 — Ohio State Buckeyes
ESPN Record Projection: 10.4-2.2
Ducks Wire Record Projection: 11-1 (9-0 Big Ten)
Projected Wins: Grambling State, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, Michigan
Projected Losses: Texas
It looks like Ohio State could be up for another impressive run in the Big Ten this year. I currently have them winning all of their conference games, meaning that they beat Penn State in Happy Valley, which will be a big test. The only game I see the Buckeyes losing comes in Week 1 against the Texas Longhorns. They certainly have the talent to win that game, but considering that it will be Julian Sayin's first career start, I went with a loss.
For more Ohio State news and analysis, check out Buckeyes Wire!
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