Tropical Storm Erin on verge of hurricane strength as it nears Caribbean

Miami Herald

5 days ago

Tropical Storm Erin is on the cusp of strengthening into a hurricane and is now forecast to hit Category 4 in a few days in the open ocean.
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Erin to cruise west for the next few days — staying comfortably north of inhabited islands — before hooking north early next week and avoiding direct landfall in the Bahamas or Florida.
Islands near Antigua and St. Martin remain under a tropical storm watch, which means tropical storm conditions could occur in the next day or so as the storm passes to the north on Saturday.
Erin is projected to pass north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday, and although the storm will be hundreds of miles away, it will be large and powerful enough to cause rough waves and heavy winds on the islands, raising concerns about power outages and mudslides.
By the time Erin passes to the east of Florida, it could be big and strong enough to send rough surf and even rainstorms toward the state, although forecasters said it's still too soon to tell exactly what the Sunshine State will see.
'There is still uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range,' they said Friday morning.
As of Friday morning, Erin is moving west quickly at 17 mph but has gained some power, pushing sustained winds to 70 mph, right on the line for an upgrade to a hurricane. Forecasters expect the storm to make the jump within the day as it approaches even warmer waters.
Over the weekend, Erin is expected to rapidly intensify all the way to a Category 3 hurricane. By Monday, as the storm steers away from the Caribbean and toward Bermuda, it's now forecast to hit Category 4 with 130 mph sustained winds. Some long-term computer models suggest it could get even stronger and hit Category 5 in the open ocean.
For now, the hurricane center's forecast track only goes through Wednesday, and it suggests Erin will shoot the gap between the east coast and Bermuda. Some models suggest the track could veer closer to Bermuda in the coming days, and others inch it closer to the east coast.
The hurricane center is also eyeing a disturbance near Mexico with a now 50% chance of developing into a depression in the next 2 to 7 days. Whether it formally develops or not, it could bring a weekend of heavy rain to Texas.