logo
A Look At The Fair Value Of INFICON Holding AG (VTX:IFCN)

A Look At The Fair Value Of INFICON Holding AG (VTX:IFCN)

Yahoo19-04-2025

The projected fair value for INFICON Holding is CHF90.18 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of CHF81.10 suggests INFICON Holding is potentially trading close to its fair value
Our fair value estimate is 19% lower than INFICON Holding's analyst price target of US$111
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of INFICON Holding AG (VTX:IFCN) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We check all companies for important risks. See what we found for INFICON Holding in our free report.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$110.1m
US$109.6m
US$117.7m
US$121.0m
US$123.3m
US$125.1m
US$126.5m
US$127.6m
US$128.5m
US$129.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x4
Analyst x3
Analyst x1
Est @ 1.90%
Est @ 1.44%
Est @ 1.12%
Est @ 0.89%
Est @ 0.73%
Est @ 0.62%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 4.9%
US$105
US$99.5
US$102
US$99.9
US$97.0
US$93.8
US$90.4
US$86.9
US$83.4
US$80.0
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$938m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 4.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$129m× (1 + 0.4%) ÷ (4.9%– 0.4%) = US$2.8b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.8b÷ ( 1 + 4.9%)10= US$1.8b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CHF81.1, the company appears about fair value at a 10% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at INFICON Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.053. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Check out our latest analysis for INFICON Holding
Strength
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Electronic industry.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electronic market.
Opportunity
Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market.
Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Swiss market.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For INFICON Holding, we've compiled three fundamental factors you should explore:
Financial Health: Does IFCN have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does IFCN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Swiss stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

AMD price target lift, Apple's WWDC, Chewy downgrade
AMD price target lift, Apple's WWDC, Chewy downgrade

Yahoo

time31 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

AMD price target lift, Apple's WWDC, Chewy downgrade

Market Domination co-host Josh Lipton tracks today's top moving stocks and biggest market stories in this Market Minute. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock gains after Citi lifts its price target to $120 from $100, citing upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) catalysts and advantages over Nvidia (NVDA). Apple (AAPL) is kicking off its Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday, where the company is expected to unveil key software updates. Chewy (CHWY) stock slides after Mizuho downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform. Stay up to date on the latest market action, minute-by-minute, with Yahoo Finance's Market Minute. It's time for Yahoo Finance's market minute. US stocks seesaw as investors eye renewed US-China trade talks. Wall Street looking for signs of either side willing to dial down tensions and reach a tariff deal. AMD shares getting a lift as City raises its price target on that stock from 100 to 120. City highlighting potential positive catalyst, the second half of the year and sees the chip maker as having some advantages over Nvidia. The price target change comes ahead of AMD's advancing AI event, which is taking place on June 12th. Apple kicking off its worldwide developers conference on Monday. The iPhone maker offering a look at the changes coming to the company's software products throughout the next year. Apple expected to reveal software and design updates. And Chewy shares, they're sliding as Mizuho hits the stock with a downgrade, lowering its rating from outperform to neutral. Mizuho citing the pet food company's unattractive positioning, noting quote, several potential landmines for the first quarter. And that's your Yahoo Finance market minute. Sign in to access your portfolio

June 2025's Spotlight On Promising Penny Stocks
June 2025's Spotlight On Promising Penny Stocks

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

June 2025's Spotlight On Promising Penny Stocks

As the U.S. stock market experiences a rally fueled by optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and robust corporate earnings, investors are increasingly exploring diverse investment opportunities. Penny stocks, a term that may seem outdated yet remains relevant, represent shares of smaller or newer companies that can offer significant growth potential when backed by strong financial health. In this article, we will explore several penny stocks that demonstrate balance sheet strength and long-term potential, providing investors with opportunities to uncover hidden value in the market. Name Share Price Market Cap Financial Health Rating Imperial Petroleum (IMPP) $3.02 $103.93M ★★★★★★ New Horizon Aircraft (HOVR) $0.935 $29.35M ★★★★★★ Waterdrop (WDH) $1.475 $533.45M ★★★★★★ Greenland Technologies Holding (GTEC) $2.06 $35.83M ★★★★★★ WM Technology (MAPS) $1.11 $186.68M ★★★★★★ Perfect (PERF) $1.815 $184.86M ★★★★★★ Table Trac (TBTC) $4.86 $22.55M ★★★★★★ Flexible Solutions International (FSI) $4.32 $54.64M ★★★★★★ BAB (BABB) $0.8311 $6.04M ★★★★★★ Lifetime Brands (LCUT) $3.43 $76.88M ★★★★★☆ Click here to see the full list of 709 stocks from our US Penny Stocks screener. Let's review some notable picks from our screened stocks. Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★★★ Overview: Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on discovering and developing therapies for immune-mediated and metabolic diseases, with a market cap of approximately $159.32 million. Operations: Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. does not report any revenue segments. Market Cap: $159.32M Aldeyra Therapeutics, with a market cap of US$159.32 million, is a pre-revenue biotechnology firm navigating the challenging landscape of clinical trials and regulatory approvals. Despite recent setbacks from the FDA regarding its dry eye treatment candidate reproxalap, the company achieved significant milestones in Phase 3 trials that may address previous concerns. Financially, Aldeyra maintains strong short-term liquidity with US$92.7 million in assets against liabilities and has more cash than debt, providing a runway exceeding one year. However, high volatility and ongoing losses highlight inherent risks typical for companies at this developmental stage in the biotech sector. Unlock comprehensive insights into our analysis of Aldeyra Therapeutics stock in this financial health report. Explore Aldeyra Therapeutics' analyst forecasts in our growth report. Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★☆☆ Overview: Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc. is a life sciences company that offers products supporting the development of drug therapies, vaccines, cell and gene therapies, and diagnostics across various global regions with a market cap of $608.64 million. Operations: The company generates revenue primarily from Nucleic Acid Production, which accounts for $179.08 million, and Biologics Safety Testing, contributing $62.78 million. Market Cap: $608.64M Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, with a market cap of US$608.64 million, faces challenges typical for penny stocks, including recent declines in sales and increased net losses. The company reported first-quarter sales of US$46.85 million, down from US$64.18 million a year prior, and a net loss of US$29.95 million compared to the previous year's US$12.08 million loss. Despite its unprofitability, Maravai has strong short-term liquidity with assets surpassing both short- and long-term liabilities and has reduced its debt-to-equity ratio over five years from 262.7% to 55.6%, indicating improved financial management amidst volatility concerns. Navigate through the intricacies of Maravai LifeSciences Holdings with our comprehensive balance sheet health report here. Assess Maravai LifeSciences Holdings' future earnings estimates with our detailed growth reports. Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★☆☆ Overview: Ranpak Holdings Corp. offers product protection and end-of-line automation solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains across North America, Europe, and Asia, with a market cap of approximately $306.61 million. Operations: The company generates $374.8 million in revenue from its product protection and automation solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains. Market Cap: $306.61M Ranpak Holdings, with a market cap of US$306.61 million, exemplifies the volatility and potential of penny stocks. Despite being unprofitable with increasing losses over five years and a negative return on equity, Ranpak maintains a seasoned management team and board. The company reported first-quarter revenue growth to US$91.2 million but also faced a net loss of US$10.9 million. Recent strategic partnerships, like the one with Thalia for automated packaging systems, highlight its commitment to innovation in e-commerce fulfillment solutions while managing high debt levels and maintaining sufficient cash runway for over three years. Click to explore a detailed breakdown of our findings in Ranpak Holdings' financial health report. Understand Ranpak Holdings' earnings outlook by examining our growth report. Explore the 709 names from our US Penny Stocks screener here. Ready To Venture Into Other Investment Styles? Diversify your portfolio with solid dividend payers offering reliable income streams to weather potential market turbulence. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include ALDX MRVI and PACK. This article was originally published by Simply Wall St. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Mitsubishi plans battery swapping tech for electric CVs in Tokyo
Mitsubishi plans battery swapping tech for electric CVs in Tokyo

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

Mitsubishi plans battery swapping tech for electric CVs in Tokyo

Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus (MFTBC), in collaboration with Mitsubishi Motors, Ample, and Yamato Transport, is set to roll out an EV battery swapping initiative in Tokyo, Japan, by September 2025. The plan includes introducing more than 150 battery-swappable commercial electric vehicles (EVs) and creating 14 modular battery swapping stations across the city. This major move towards sustainable transportation follows a smaller pilot in Kyoto last year and will feature MFTBC's eCanter light-duty truck and Mitsubishi Motors' Minicab EV, targeting commercial delivery fleets. Yamato Transport will be the first major customer, focusing on last-mile delivery applications. Ample, a US-based battery swapping company, will provide the technology for the EV platforms and will be responsible for installing and operating the swapping stations. The Tokyo Metropolitan Environment Public Corporation is backing the project through its "Technology Development Support Project for Promoting New Energy", aligning with Japan's climate goals. Japan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 46% from 2013 levels by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. With the transportation sector responsible for nearly 19% of the country's CO₂ emissions in 2022, commercial fleet electrification is a strategic priority for Japan's decarbonisation efforts. The consortium in Tokyo is targeting battery swapping times of just five minutes, offering a fully automated service where drivers do not need to exit their vehicles. Ample's compact and rapidly deployable stations are a practical solution for high-utilisation fleets in dense urban areas like Tokyo. Future expansions of this initiative may include grid services, such as renewable energy storage, to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This initiative builds on previous collaborations, with Yamato Transport pioneering commercial EV battery swapping since 2022 and a successful pilot involving commercial delivery and battery swapping taxis in Kyoto in 2024. "Mitsubishi plans battery swapping tech for electric CVs in Tokyo" was originally created and published by Just Auto, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Sign in to access your portfolio

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store