Stock markets lifted by ‘productive' US-China trade talks

The Guardian

12-05-2025

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
A sigh of relief is sweeping global markets today, after the US and China both reported they made progress at a weekend of talks in Switzerland over the trade war.
Stocks have risen across Asia-Pacific markets, while safe-haven asset gold has dipped, on hopes of de-escalation in the trade war gripping the global economy.
The two sides have promised to release details about what was agreed later today, after both issuing encouraging statements on Sunday after the talks wrapped up.
Last night, the White House announced a 'China Trade Deal' had been reached in Geneva.
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent described the talks as 'productive', saying yesterday:
'I'm happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks. First, I want to thank our Swiss host. The Swiss government has been very kind in providing us this wonderful venue, and I think that led to a great deal of productivity we've seen. We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive.
US trade representative ambassador Jamieson Greer said it was a 'very constructive two days' of talks, adding that 'perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought'.
For Beijing, Vice Premier He Lifeng said the China-U.S. high-level meeting on economic and trade affairs were 'in-depth, candid and constructive'.
He explained that the two countries have agreed to a new 'trade consultation mechanism'.
That 'mechanism' suggests a warming in relations between the two sides, who ratcheted up tariffs on each other's goods last month, after Donald Trump announced his ''Liberation Day' levies on imports to the US.
🟢Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng：The #China-#US high-level meeting on economic and trade affairs were in-depth, candid and constructive.
🟢The two sides have reached a series of major consensuses and have also agreed to establish an economic and trade consultation mechanism.… pic.twitter.com/o3s9kWdtlT — Chinese Embassy in US (@ChineseEmbinUS) May 12, 2025
Markets have responded positively, even though neither side has yet released any specific details of possible points of agreement.
China's CSI300 share index has risen 0.8%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is up 1.2%. Japan's Nikkei has risen a more modest 0.3%. The futures market suggests the US markets will rally later today too.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at capital.com, says:
It remains the case that there's more style than substance when it comes to the trade policy narrative: not as much as a pledge to lower tariffs has been given, let alone a substantive and comprehensive deal. Nevertheless, what the US is touting as 'productive' talks and Trump has labelled a 'reset' is a clear statement of intent from the US to wind back existing tariffs.
The markets and negotiators are on the clock now to reach an agreement before the damage of existing tariffs begin to seriously weaken economic activity, especially in the US. So far, tariffs have had a negative but relatively modest impact on economic growth, with the labour market proving resilient and prices stable. Eventually, if the status quo remains, the levee will break and significant and hard to reverse damage will be done to the global economy.
We'll hear from top central bankers in the UK today, as King's College London hosts the annual Bank of England Watchers' conference. The agenda 9:00am BST: Bank of England deputy governor Clare Lombardelli gives keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers' Conference 2025
11:30am BST: Panel on the Monetary policy outlook including BoE policymaker Megan Greene
17:00pm BST: Fire-side chat with BoE policymaker Alan Taylor Share