Erin downgraded to formidable Category 4 hurricane, NHC says
The storm was about 395 miles (636 km) east of Grand Turk Island packing maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (225 kph), the NHC said, down from 160 mph.
The NHC forecast Erin is moving toward the west-northwest at nearly 14 mph with a turn more northward expected to occur on Monday into Tuesday.
The NHC said the meteorological service of France has discontinued the tropical storm watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, while the meteorological service of the Netherlands has discontinued the tropical storm watch for Sint Maarten.
The NHC had previously said it expected Erin to strengthen into next week.
The hurricane's center was forecast to pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday and move to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday night and Monday.
The storm is expected to dump heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, the NHC said.
Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend, and the swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States early in the coming week, it said.
The Bahamas, which provides some meteorological services for the Turks and Caicos Islands, issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British islands to its southeast.
Erin has also raised concerns about wildfire risks if human-caused sparks ignite parched vegetation and strong dry winds fan the flames. BMS Group Senior Meteorologist Andrew Siffert said these conditions could arise if Erin grows into a powerful offshore storm fueled by colliding warm and cold air rather than tropical seas.
Insurance-linked securities manager Twelve Securis said on Friday that Erin was forecast to remain far enough offshore to spare the U.S. East Coast from significant impacts.
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