Wetin be di worst-case scenarios on Israel-Iran strikes?

BBC News

21 hours ago

For now di fighting between Israel and Iran dey restricted to di two nations. For United Nations and elsewhere many pipo dey calls for restraint.
But what if dem fall on deaf ears? What if di fighting escalate and expand?
Dis na just a few possible, worst-case scenarios.
What if e drag America inside
Upon say US dey deny say dia hand no dey, Iran believe say American forces endorse am and at least tacitly support Israel attacks.
Iran fit strike US targets across di Middle East – like dia special forces camps for Iraq, military bases for Gulf, and diplomatic missions for di region. Iran proxy forces - Hamas and Hezbollah – wey many dey feel say no too strong but dia supportive militias for Iraq still dey armed and dey intact.
US dey fear say dis kain attacks dey possible and so dem don withdraw some personnel. For dia public message, US warned Iran well-well of di consequences of any attack on American targets.
Wetin fit happun if dem kill American citizen, say, for Tel Aviv or elsewhere?
Donald Trump fit dey forced to act. Many pipo dey accuse Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu say im wan drag US inside dis mata to help am defeat Iran.
Military analysts say na only US get di bombers and bunker-busting bombs wey fit penetrate di deepest of Iranian nuclear facilities, especially for Fordow.
Trump bin promise im MAGA constituency say im no go start any so-called "forever wars" for Middle East. But equally many Republicans support both Israel goment and dia view say now na di time to seek regime change for Tehran.
But if America come become an active combatant, dat go represent a huge escalation wit a long, potentially devastating consequential tail.
What if e drag Gulf nations
If Iran fail to damage Israel well-protected military and oda targets, den dem fit always aim dia missiles at softer targets for Gulf, especially kontris wey Iran believe say dey help and assist dia enemies ova di years.
Plenty energy and infrastructure targets dey di region. Remember say dem accuse Iran of striking Saudi Arabia oil fields for 2019 and dia Houthi proxies hit targets for UAE for 2022.
Since den, Iran don reconcile wit some for di region.
But dis kontris dey play host to US airbases. Some also – discreetly – bin help defend Israel from Iranian missile attack last year.
If dem attack di Gulf, den dem too fit demand American warplanes to come to dia defence as well as Israel.
Israel fail to destroy Iran nuclear capability
What if Israeli attack fail? What if Iran nuclear facilities dey too deep, too well protected? What if dia 400kg of 60% enriched uranium – di nuclear fuel dey just a small step away from being fully weapons-grade, wey go enough for ten bombs or so – and dem no dey destroyed?
Experts believe say dem hide dem deep for secret mines. Israel fit don kill some nuclear scientists but bombs no fit destroy Iran knowhow and expertise.
What if Israel attack convince Iran leadership say di only way of deterring further attacks na to race for nuclear capability as fast as e fit?
What if those new military leaders wey dey round di table dey more stubborn more headstrong and less cautious pass dia predecessors wey don die?
Di least be say, dis fit force Israel to further attacks, wey go potentially put di region inside continual round of strike and counter-strike. Israelis get one brutal phrase for dis strategy; dem dey call am "mowing di grass".
E dey affect global economy
Di price of oil already dey go high .
What if Iran try to close di Strait of Hormuz, wey go further restrict di movement of oil?
What if – on di other side of di Arabian Peninsula - di Houthis for Yemen redouble dia efforts to attack shipping for Red Sea? Dem be Iran last remaining so-called proxy ally dem get a track record of unpredictability and high risk appetite.
Many kontris around di world already dey suffer a cost of living crisis. A rising price of oil go add to inflation for a global economic system wey already dey shake under di weight of Trump tariff war.
And make we not forget, di one man wey go benefits from high oil prices na President Putin of Russia wey suddenly go see billions more dollars flood into Kremlin coffers to pay for im war against Ukraine.
Iran regime fall, go leave vacuum
What if Israel succeed for dia long term aim of forcing di collapse of di Islamic revolutionary regime for Iran?
Netanyahu claim say im primary aim na to destroy Iran nuclear capability. But im make am clear for im statement yesterday say im big target na regime change.
Im tell "di proud pipo of Iran" say im attack na to "clear di path for una to achieve una freedom" from wetin im call dia "evil and oppressive regime".
Bringing down Iran goment fit appeal to some for di region, especially some Israelis. But whick kain vacuum e go leave? Wetin go be di unforeseen consequences? Wetin civil conflict for Iran go look like?
Many still remember wetin happun to both Iraq and Libya wen dem remove dia strong centralised goment.
So, much go depend on how dis war go progress in coming days.
How - and how hard - Iran go retaliate? And di kain restraint – if any - wey US fit exert on Israel?
Alot go depend on di answer to those two kwesions.