After Trump Deal, Ukraine's Fortunes Hinge On How Fast NATO Can Deliver Arms
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been stepping up his missile and drone bombardment of Ukraine with the calculation that it will provide Moscow with a growing edge in a costly but largely stalemated conflict.
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9 minutes ago
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Trump rants that his ‘PAST' supporters have bought into Jeffrey Epstein ‘Hoax'
President Donald Trump has unleashed yet another tirade at his own supporters as his Make America Great Again movement continues to push back at the Justice Department's refusal to release case files from the prosecution of deceased sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. In a post on Truth Social, the 47th president, who once spoke highly of the disgraced financier and his proclivity for surrounding himself with young women, resumed arguing that the furor around the so-called 'Epstein files' — a longtime fixation for many of his supporters who believe they contain damaging information on prominent Democrats and other liberal celebrities — is a creation of his political enemies rather than anything genuinely felt by his political base. Trump compared the burgeoning scandal around his own Department of Justice to past political blow-ups around Russia's interference in the 2016 election and Hunter Biden's infamous laptop, calling the present dustup a 'SCAM' perpetrated by Democrats and labeling it as 'what we will forever call the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax.' He also suggested that anyone still clamoring for the documents is not a true supporter of his. 'My PAST supporters have bought into this 'bullshit,' hook, line, and sinker. They haven't learned their lesson, and probably never will, even after being conned by the Lunatic Left for 8 long years,' he said 'I have had more success in 6 months than perhaps any President in our Country's history, and all these people want to talk about, with strong prodding by the Fake News and the success starved Dems, is the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax.' Continuing, the president went on to disavow those supporters who still want his administration to come clean on the case files assembled as federal investigators and prosecutors built a case against Epstein for sex trafficking during his first term. The former math teacher turned financial adviser, who federal agents arrested on sex trafficking charges in July 2019, hanged himself roughly a month later in a Manhattan detention facility where he was awaiting trial. For years, the president's supporters have pushed for release of what they believe was a list of powerful people to whom Epstein is alleged to have trafficked young girls, as well as other information they believe would reflect negatively on members of the Democratic Party, various Hollywood celebrities, and other purported elites who they believe to be part of a sinister cabal controlling world events. For years, Trump has winked and nodded at such beliefs and had indicated during his 2024 campaign that his administration would release the documents in question if he were victorious in last year's presidential election. Now, as his base revolts over the Justice Department's failure to make good on that promise, he is angrily disavowing those MAGA die-hards. He wrote: 'Let these weaklings continue forward and do the Democrats work, don't even think about talking of our incredible and unprecedented success, because I don't want their support anymore! ' More follows...
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9 minutes ago
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Is Archer Aviation Ready to Prove the Model?
Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR) has had an eventful half-year since I last covered the company's ambitions in urban air mobility (UAM). After raising $850 million at near-peak prices, completing its first piloted Midnight flights, and watching Washington fast-track eVTOL integration, investors hope the company will turn plans into action within the next six months. The stock has been volatile with each new development while investors await the FAA's final decision, yet it remains roughly flat year-to-date. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with ACHR. In this article, I will examine how Archer stacks up on each front and whether the potential payoff justifies the risk. Source: Archer Archer's mission is to unlock urban skies with its all-electric Midnight aircraft, aiming to transform how people move within and between cities. Midnight is essentially an air taxi with one pilot and four passenger seats, designed for short hops of up to 100 miles at speeds as high as 150 mph. By taking off and landing vertically like a helicopter yet cruising on wing-borne lift like an airplane, Midnight can exploit unused vertical airspace to bypass big-city traffic. Archer's value proposition centers on speed and convenience: a typical ride could be three to five times faster than driving, shrinking a 70-minute slog to the airport to about 15 minutes. The company promises a safe, quiet, zero-emission ride that will ultimately be cost-competitive with premium ground transport. At the center of everything is the Midnight aircraft. Archer's design choices prioritize safety and reliability to win regulator trust and public acceptance. Midnight uses 12 propellers (six tilt rotors and six fixed) to ensure stability and redundancy. It carries six separate battery packs so that a single failure will not bring down the vehicle, a critical safety advantage over traditional helicopters that rely on one engine. Reducing noise is another design goal: Midnight's smaller, distributed rotors and electric propulsion make it up to 100 times quieter than a helicopter at cruise. Archer is also exploring next-generation batteries, such as solid-state cells, to double energy density and extend range over time. Archer intends to sell its Midnight aircraft or operate them itself as a service and has already obtained a Part 135 Air Carrier certificate from the FAA, which is required to run commercial air-taxi flights. This suggests a hybrid model: Archer will likely act as an airline in certain launch cities while also selling aircraft to partners abroad. In the United States, Archer and United Airlines plan to launch an urban air shuttle network, including an initial Chicago route and an air-taxi service in New York City once Midnight is certified. Internationally, Archer is forming joint ventures and supplier deals to seed its technology in major markets. For example, it is the primary eVTOL partner for the UAE's planned air-taxi network in Abu Dhabi (targeting service by Q4 2025) and has struck agreements in Japan (with Sumitomo) and, more recently, Indonesia to pave the way for early commercial use ahead of U.S. approval. With the test flights in Abu Dhabi, Archer achieved a critical milestone as it prepares for commercial deployment. Operating the aircraft in peak summer heat gives the company real-world performance data that will feed directly into certification efforts in both the UAE and the United States. By planting flags globally, Archer hopes to generate initial revenue abroad and refine operations while U.S. regulators finalize the green light at home. The total addressable market (TAM) for UAM is widely projected to be enormous, though it will take years to materialize. A recent industry forecast pegs the UAM/eVTOL market at roughly $23 billion by 2030, a 31 percent compound annual growth rate from essentially zero today. Source: Markets and Markets Early applications will focus on high-density cities where roads are jammed, and travelers will pay a premium for time savings. Think airport shuttles in New York, Los Angeles, London, and Tokyo, and eventually intercity hops replacing short regional flights or long drives. Archer's $6 billion order book hints at demand. It includes provisional orders and options for up to 200 aircraft from United Airlines, 100 for the UAE, 100 for Japan, and others, many backed by deposits or government funding. For perspective, Archer's indicative orders roughly match its current market capitalization, highlighting the high expectations embedded in the stock. Converting those orders into revenue, however, depends on meeting certification and production milestones on schedule. It's important to note that no company has commercialized eVTOL service yet, so market share is currently about positioning and partnerships rather than revenue. Archer faces a pack of well-funded rivals racing to be first in the air. The closest U.S. competitor is Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY), whose eVTOL prototype and timeline closely parallel Archer's. Joby, backed by Toyota and Delta Air Lines, has also targeted a 2025 launch and secured FAA Part 135 operating authority, in addition to a contract with the U.S. Air Force. Joby has delivered its first aircraft to the UAE and begun commercial market-readiness work, including multiple piloted flights. Another peer, Eve Air Mobility (NYSE:EVEX), a spin-off of Embraer, plans to start services in 2026 and aircraft sales in 2027. Europe's entrants, Lilium (LSE:0AB4) and Vertical Aerospace (NYSE:EVTL), have struggled; Lilium's market cap has collapsed to about $30 million, essentially pricing in a high risk of failure, while Vertical has a more modest $500 million valuation and a later timeline. China's EHang (NASDAQ:EH) pursues an autonomous two-seater drone model and has generated a few million dollars in pilot-program revenue. Archer and Joby are generally viewed as the U.S. front-runners, with Archer arguably ahead in some respects and lagging in others. Archer has been extremely pragmatic in its certification strategy. Rather than reinvent every wheel, it sources key components from established aerospace suppliers. Avionics from Garmin, flight controls from Honeywell, electric motors from Safran, etc., where those parts are already FAA-certified in traditional aircraft. This approach minimizes the regulatory unknowns. The idea is to streamline approvals by using proven tech wherever possible and focusing certification on the novel integration (the eVTOL design itself). Indeed, Archer has steadily checked off milestones: it achieved its first full transition to wing-borne flight last year, and more recently it began piloted flight tests where Midnight successfully took off, cruised at 125 mph, and landed conventionally on a runway. Those piloted tests demonstrate that Archer's aircraft handles as expected in real conditions just like the simulator, according to its test pilot, building confidence with regulators. Another differentiator is Archer's focus on operational versatility. Uniquely, Midnight is being tested for both VTOL and conventional runway takeoffs/landings (CTOL). Robust landing gear allows it to use airports or airstrips when available, which can save batteries and enhance safety (by providing more options in an emergency). Finally, Archer's strategic partners and backers lend it credibility (and capital). United Airlines' early $10 million deposit not only validates Archer's market but also gives it a ready launch customer. Automaker Stellantis has become a major investor and manufacturing partner, agreeing to help build Midnight at scale using automotive production techniques. This is a big deal producing aircraft efficiently is notoriously difficult, and Stellantis' involvement could accelerate Archer's ramp to the targeted 650 units per year by 2030. Archer is also leveraging Palantir's (NASDAQ:PLTR) AI software to optimize its operations and flight data, and it has teamed up with Anduril Industries on a defense variant of its eVTOL. Nonetheless, competitors have their own partnerships. Joby Aviation, for example, also has strong partners (Toyota, SkyWest, and a deal with Delta Air Lines for airport shuttles) and a head start serving the U.S. Air Force with pre-production eVTOLs. In my view, any breakthrough by a rival could cut both ways. Capital could flood into the winner and punish the laggards, or investors might see the advance as sector-wide validation and bid up everyone. Either way, this isn't a winner-take-all arena. Several operators are likely to carve out durable niches. Nonetheless, Archer's ability to claim first-mover advantage will depend on flawless execution in the next 18 months. With FAA type certification expected by late 2025, Archer is effectively in a high-stakes race to the finish line. The good news is that recent U.S. policy moves may help. Washington announced an eVTOL pilot program to accelerate approvals and infrastructure, signaling federal desire to see American players lead this new industry. Following that announcement, Archer's $850 million raise timed perfectly with the White House order calling for American dominance in eVTOLs. These tailwinds could help Archer more than smaller rivals, but the crown remains up for grabs until paying passengers are flying regularly. Archer remains a pre-revenue company, so its financial story centers on cash burn, funding, and leverage. In the first quarter of 2025, Archer reported a net loss of $93.4 million. Losses are normal for a startup in R&D mode, but investors are watching the trend closely. On that front, Archer's Q1 net loss narrowed from $116.5 million in Q1 2024 and beat analysts' EPS expectations with a loss of $0.17 per share. Operating expenses were $144 million, but heavy non-cash charges padded that figure. On an adjusted basis, operating costs were $113 million as the company hires and builds infrastructure. The burn rate (cash used in operating and investing) was about $105 million, implying roughly $35 million per month and, before new funding, less than one year of runway. Source: Gurufocus The balance sheet, however, has transformed with recent fund-raises. Archer ended March 2025 with just over $1.03 billion in cash, then raised another $850 million in June by selling 85 million new shares at $10 each. The infusion boosted liquidity to roughly $2 billion, raised at a favorable price that limited dilution. Even so, dilution has been significant and will likely continue; the share count has ballooned more than fivefold since the SPAC merger and now exceeds 540 million shares before including the June issuance. Early investors have paid for ample funding with significant dilution. With $2 billion in cash, Archer is funded through at least 2026 by most estimates. At the current $100 million quarterly burn, that represents two full years of cushion. Burn may increase as Archer shifts from prototyping to manufacturing. The company plans to start low-volume production in the second half of 2025, targeting two aircraft per month by year-end, and then scale to dozens per month by 2026-27. Management aims to produce up to 10 Midnight aircraft in 2025, including several test vehicles, and to conduct for-credit flight tests that count toward certification. Progress on these fronts will signal whether the first revenue is on track for 2025. Ramping production will require capital investment in tooling, supply chain, and personnel. Archer's 400,000-square-foot factory in Covington, Georgia, is complete and ready to scale, while Stellantis likely brings manufacturing expertise and potentially off-balance-sheet resources. Archer has not published an expected unit cost or sale price for Midnight, but management uses roughly $5 million per aircraft when converting MOUs into backlog dollars. If Archer gets a dozen aircraft in commercial service in 2025-26, it will finally record revenue, and investors can begin modeling utilization and profitability per aircraft. Until then, traditional multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, even P/S) are not applicable in the absence of earnings or revenue. Archer's valuation rests almost entirely on future expectations, making the stock a venture-style bet. That said, the market is assigning a multi-billion-dollar value to Archer, so investors clearly see a sizable payoff down the road. Archer's market cap is just under $6.6 billion, up from less than $3 billion a year ago, reflecting increased optimism that the first aircraft are closer than ever. The market cap roughly equals the $6 billion backlog, implying a price-to-backlog ratio of about 1x. For a pre-revenue firm that is rich, but it suggests investors believe a large portion of those orders will convert. By comparison, Joby Aviation currently commands about $9.5 billion in market value, while Eve Holding is around $2.1 billion, and the smaller peers (Vertical, Lilium) are well under $1 billion. Archer plans to scale to 650 aircraft a year by 2030. Assuming each Midnight generates $2 to 3 million in annual revenue (either via operating lease/ride services or via sales price recognized), that implies $1.5 to 2 billion in annual revenue by 2030. If Archer achieves that, today's $6 billion market cap is about 4x a potential 2030 revenue. Of course, that scenario is speculative and five years out, but it shows the upside the market is pricing in. In the near term, Wall Street analysts expect around $20-50 million in revenue in 2025 and $180 million in 2026, ramping to roughly half a billion by 2027. The market values Archer as if it will become a major player in UAM. At the end of the day, valuing Archer is a bet on execution at this stage. The stock is not cheap by any conventional metric, but if Archer becomes one of the winners in an entirely new industry, today's market cap could prove modest. If UAM truly takes off in the 2030s, leading eVTOL manufacturers/operators could justify tens of billions in value. Archer is positioning to be in that conversation. That potential upside is what investors are paying for today, with full acknowledgement that the company may stumble and never fully justify the valuation if things go south. Hitting milestones could justify the valuation and then some. Conversely, any shortfall, delays, fewer deliveries, cost overruns, could drive the stock lower. It's entirely possible that eVTOL adoption will be slower and bumpier than optimists expect, which would pressure all players, including Archer. Moreover, once the FAA signs off and Midnight aircraft start shipping, the focus shifts to phase two: unit cost, fleet utilization, and gross margins, the hard numbers that will decide how scalable this industry can be. Archer's story remains high-risk, high-reward, but it is far more advanced than a year ago. Investors with a high tolerance for volatility may find Archer a compelling play on transportation's future, while those with lower risk appetite may wait for clear revenue traction. As always, execution is the key. The coming 12 to 18 months will likely determine whether Archer Aviation can truly fly above the pack or if these ambitious plans start to lose altitude. Given everything, I am optimistic that management can execute the plan and start to deliver. The skies of urban mobility are almost within reach, and Archer is one big step (or flight) away from making history. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. 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Yahoo
9 minutes ago
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Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg expected to testify in $8 billion Facebook privacy lawsuit
A $8 billion-dollar class action investors' lawsuit against Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and company leaders — current and former — begins Wednesday, with claims stemming from the privacy scandal involving the Cambridge Analytica political consulting firm. Investors allege in their lawsuit that Meta did not fully disclose the risks that Facebook users' personal information would be misused by Cambridge Analytica, a firm that supported Donald Trump's successful Republican presidential campaign in 2016. Shareholders say Facebook officials repeatedly and continually violated a 2012 consent order with the Federal Trade Commission under which Facebook agreed to stop collecting and sharing personal data on platform users and friends without their consent. The fallout led to Facebook agreeing to pay a $5.1 billion penalty to settle FTC charges. The social media giant also reached a $725 million privacy settlement with users. Now shareholders want Zuckerberg and others to reimburse Meta for the FTC fine and other legal costs, which the plaintiffs estimate total more than $8 billion. The case will feature testimony from Zuckerberg and former Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg. Others expected to appear on the stand include board member Marc Andreessen and former board member Peter Thiel.
