The Ukrainian land occupied by Russia at the heart of the Trump-Putin summit

France 24

a day ago

Upon announcing he would be meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump threw a spanner in the works. As he explained in broad strokes that the Alaska summit with the Russian president would take place on August 15, he said 'there will be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both' Ukraine and Russia – but didn't go into detail.
Hours later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on social media that 'Ukrainians will not give their land to the occupier'.
Since Trump's contentious comment, speculation on whether his meeting with Putin will result in a radical and coercive change to Ukraine's borders has been rife.
And even the use of the word 'exchange' is risky, as Russia currently controls almost 20 percent of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kyiv has not occupied any Russian territory since March, when the Ukrainian army still had a partial hold on the Kursk region following a surprise offensive launched in August 2024.
The power imbalance on the ground has meant there is little optimism for the outcome of the summit held by Putin and Trump in Alaska today. Especially seeing as Russian territorial demands seem clear, unlikely to change and represent a complete disadvantage for Ukraine.
Those demands include Ukrainian land claimed by Russia since 2014. That year, in the span of a few months, Moscow took the Ukrainian government by surprise and left the West speechless by annexing the Crimean Peninsula.
The capture of Crimea was followed by a similar operation led by Russian-backed separatists to take over parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (regions).
Russian annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts in 2022
Following the annexation of Crimea, the so-called Donbas war between Russia and Ukraine lasted from 2014 to 2022 and claimed more than 14,000 lives on both sides, according to the UN.
Then in February 2022, the conflict between the two countries took on new dimensions when Russia launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
At first, Moscow moved rapidly towards the capital, Kyiv. But the Russian army was met with resistance from Ukrainian forces.
In the south and east of Ukraine, Russia took control of large swathes of land (see map below). Most of the Luhansk oblast was occupied by Russian forces, who extended their invasion into the Donetsk oblast, and also seized a large part of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
A few months later, Moscow proxies in the four regions organised an annexation 'referendum' and claimed victory – a move described by the West as a ' sham '.
Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia now have the same unofficial status as Crimea. But neither Ukraine nor the international community have recognised the annexation.
The war in Ukraine has taken tens of thousands of lives and caused irreversible damage to the country. And after three and a half years of fighting, there is no reconciliation on the horizon for either Ukrainian or Russian forces.
Despite three rounds of peace talks in Istanbul, Kyiv and Moscow, an agreement has not been found. Ukraine and its western allies accuse the Kremlin of blocking negotiations by sticking to its maximalist demands, which include Kyiv surrendering Crimea and the four other regions it occupies.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to gain ground on the battlefield.
Ceding territory in exchange for a ceasefire?
A recent proposal made to the US by Russia seems to be the reason the Trump-Putin summit is taking place at all, the Wall Street Journal reported last week. According to the US outlet, 'Putin's proposal would require that Ukraine hand over eastern Ukraine, a region known as the Donbas, without Russia's committing to much other than to stop fighting'.
This would mean that Ukraine, which still controls parts of Luhansk and Donetsk that make up the Donbas, would surrender land that tens of thousands of soldiers have died trying to protect – places like Kramatorsk or Slovyansk.
As for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the Wall Street Journal reported: 'A US official said Putin called for pausing the war at current lines in both regions. Russia would then negotiate land swaps with Ukraine, aiming for full Moscow control of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. It couldn't be determined which territory Ukraine would receive in return.'
If Ukraine were to cede these regions to Moscow, it would have full access to Crimea and control of the Sea of Azov, which has been under de facto Russian control since 2014.
European allies of Ukraine, who were not invited to the summit in Alaska, voice their strong opposition against any cessation of Ukrainian territory. After meeting with Zelensky in Berlin, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Ukraine is ready to negotiate ' on territorial issues ' but was adamant that legal recognition of Russian occupations 'would not be up for debate'.
Zelensky has ruled out any withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the eastern regions as part of a peace deal.
What's more, 82 percent of Ukrainians reject the demands made by Russia to cede land, according to a recent opinion poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
But the future of their country will, in part, be decided without them in Friday's talks.