Study finds gaps in flood risk assessment
Yet, the flood risk assessments conducted do not provide solutions or consider the complete picture in the context of climate change indicators observed in the state since the Kerala floods of 2018, says a multi-institutional paper published in the Elsevier Journal of Hydrology recently.
The paper stated that in 2024, after a severe drought from March to May, flash floods occurred in several districts. While significant research was conducted on individual extreme events like floods, droughts, and landslides, there is a gap in the study of compound extreme events in Kerala.
Currently, these risks are treated in isolation, missing the cumulative impacts, said the paper titled 'A Critical Review of Flood Risk Assessment in Kerala Post-2018: Methodological Approaches, Gaps, and Future Directions'.
It mentioned that studies using remote sensing and GIS, predictive modelling and analytical approaches were conducted. Alappuzha was the most extensively studied district while Thiruvananthapuram received minimal attention.
The review identifies critical gaps in the literature, including challenges in translating mitigation strategies, urban flooding stemming from poor land use planning, insufficient integration of various flood sources, and limited research on compound extreme events.
Compound extreme events, which can occur simultaneously or sequentially, pose a significant threat. These can include consecutive floods in the same area or a combination of extreme events such as a heatwave coinciding with a drought or droughts followed by flash floods.
An in-depth analysis of future climate scenarios, using climate models and rainfall projection data, is essential to understand the changes and their potential impacts on flood patterns in Kerala. Several flood-risk and climate-change related policies and initiatives, such as the Kerala state action plan on climate change (SAPCC) and floodplain zoning regulations, were introduced to reduce the impact of flooding and the increase in extreme events within Kerala.
While SAPCC outlines adaptation measures to combat flooding due to climate change, a gap exists in mainstreaming climate resilience into development planning and infrastructure projects, the study said.
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