logo
Trump's tariff rollercoaster could tank his presidency

Trump's tariff rollercoaster could tank his presidency

The Hill10-04-2025

You've got a better chance of predicting when an earthquake will hit California than you have predicting what President Trump is going to do tomorrow — regardless of what he says today.
First, he tells us tariffs are on. Then tariffs are off, sort of — and, who knows, he may change his mind again before he sits down for lunch.
Stocks are down, then they're up and by the time you read this they may be down again. Who knows?
Trump isn't happy unless he's unleashing some kind of chaos on the world. And yesterday, when the president suddenly announced that he would back down on his 'reciprocal' tariffs for 90 days, the S&P 500 took off, rising almost 10 percent in just one day.
When he was running for president in 2024, Trump made a promise to the American people — a promise that played as well in diners in Ohio as it did in boardrooms in Manhattan: that he would lower prices and build a booming economy unlike anything we'd seen under President Joe Biden.
The pitch was simple. Elect a businessman, not a politician. Elect someone who knows the art of the deal, not the art of government red tape. Prices will drop, jobs will come back and America will be great again.
Fast forward — President Trump is back in the White House, and last week he announced what he called 'Liberation Day,' which turned out to be 'Obliteration Day' as the stock markets crashed, with the Dow falling almost 1,700 points.
Liberation Day was when he announced a whole array of steep tariffs on friends and foes alike. But you just knew Trump wasn't going to let the markets continue to slide. If that happened, he'd be seen as the villain who drained 401(k) retirement accounts from senior citizens, who just happen to vote in big numbers.
Hence, the reprieve he announced yesterday. But his decisions on tariffs have already caused damage — to more than the financial markets.
After a few days of devastating loses, Gerry Baker wrote in his Wall Street Journal column that Trump is trashing America's reputation around the and doing 'irreversible damage to the greatest geopolitical brand ever created.'
'Allies — staunchly pro-American friends from Canada to Denmark to Poland — are sullen, angry and scared,' Baker writes. 'Adversaries who have long envied our power and tried unsuccessfully to undermine it, are hugging themselves with joy.'
And tariffs are taxes by another name. They don't just punish China, Mexico or Vietnam. They punish Americans who buy things — which, last I checked, is just about everyone, which explains why he's now having second thoughts about his 'beautiful' tariffs.
If Trump didn't change course, prices weren't going to come down as he promised; they'd go up. The economy wouldn't get stronger but would likely slide into recession,
And here's the political reality: When the economy tanks, presidents pay — and so does their party. It doesn't matter how much they talk about bringing jobs home. Americans may love the idea of long-term strategy, but they vote based on short-term pain.
Trump has said that over time tariffs would help bring back manufacturing. That they'd create millions of good-paying jobs here at home. Maybe that would be true. Maybe it's wishful thinking.
But people don't live in the long run — they live in the right now. And if the Trump tariffs ultimately wind up staying in place, groceries will cost more — same with appliances, cars and a whole bunch of other things. That's not a winning message.
Americans will head to the polls for the midterms in 18 months. And if prices are high and the economy is wobbly, don't be surprised if the Democrats take back the House. The Senate is a steeper climb, but not impossible. And if they pull it off, Trump's second-term agenda will be finished.
The big gains in the markets yesterday may be the beginning of more gains, or it could just be what they call 'a bear market bounce' — a short uptick in stocks coming after several devastating down days.
So who knows how this will turn out. But Trump's brand has always been tied to the idea that he's a businessman who knows how to make deals. If that narrative collapses, then not only does he lose the political clout that comes with his presidency, his party could be dragged down with him.
And if that happens, no amount of spin, no amount of 'rosy scenarios' from the Trump White House would change the facts on the ground. As James Carville once famously said: 'It's the economy, stupid.' Always has been. Always will be.
One more thing: When Trump declared that tariff 'is the most beautiful word in the dictionary,' did anyone in his inner circle have the courage — or the common sense — to say, 'Mr. President, this is not a good idea, not the way you're going about it. The way you're doing it will create turmoil in markets around the world and turn our friends into enemies?'
Knowing Trump's penchant for surrounding himself with 'yes men' and 'yes women,' the short answer is: not likely.
Too bad. Because if somebody had the guts to speak truth to Trump's power, he — and all of us — could have avoided a lot of the needless chaos that he single-handedly created.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Rights group says global brands are at risk of links to forced labor in China's minerals industry

time34 minutes ago

Rights group says global brands are at risk of links to forced labor in China's minerals industry

LONDON -- Several global brands are among dozens of companies at risk of using forced labor through their Chinese supply chains because they use critical minerals or buy minerals-based products sourced from China's far-western Xinjiang region, an international rights group said Wednesday. The report by the Netherlands-based Global Rights Compliance says companies including Avon, Walmart, Nescafe, Coca-Cola and paint supplier Sherwin-Williams may be linked to titanium sourced from Xinjiang, where rights groups allege the Chinese government runs coercive labor practices targeting predominantly Muslim Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities. The report comes as China and the United States, the world's two largest economies, continue talks aimed at easing their trade dispute. The report found 77 Chinese suppliers in the titanium, lithium, beryllium and magnesium industries operating in Xinjiang. It said the suppliers are at risk of participating in the Chinese government's 'labor transfer programs," in which Uyghurs are forced to work in factories as part of a longstanding campaign of assimilation and mass detention. Commercial paints, thermos cups and components for the aerospace, auto and defense industries are among products sold internationally that can trace their supply chains to minerals from Xinjiang, the report said. It said companies must review their supply chains. 'Mineral mining and processing in (Xinjiang) rely in part on the state's forced labor programs for Uyghurs and other Turkic people in the region,' the report said. The named companies did not immediately comment on the report. A 2022 United Nations report found China may have committed crimes against humanity in Xinjiang, where more than 1 million Uyghurs are estimated to have been arbitrarily detained as part of measures the Chinese government said were intended to target terrorism and separatism. The Chinese government has rejected the U.N. claims and defended its actions in Xinjiang as fighting terror and ensuring stability. In 2021, former U.S. President Joe Biden signed a law to block imports from the Xinjiang region unless businesses can prove the items were made without forced labor. The law initially targeted solar products, tomatoes, cotton and apparel, but the U.S. government recently added new sectors for enforcement, including aluminum and seafood. A recent report by the International Energy Agency said the world's sources of critical minerals are increasingly concentrated in a few countries, notably China, which is also a leading refining and processing base for lithium, cobalt, graphite and other minerals. Many of China's major minerals corporations have invested in the exploration and mining of lithium, a key component for electric vehicle batteries, in Xinjiang, Global Rights Compliance said. Xinjiang is also China's top source of beryllium, a mineral used for aerospace, defense and telecommunications, its report said.

Judge tosses lawsuit over Trump's firing of US African Development Foundation board members

time34 minutes ago

Judge tosses lawsuit over Trump's firing of US African Development Foundation board members

A federal judge has tossed out a lawsuit over President Donald Trump's dismantling of a U.S. federal agency that invests in African small businesses. U.S. District Judge Richard Leon in Washington, D.C., dismissed the case on Tuesday, finding that Trump was acting within his legal authority when he fired the U.S. African Development Foundation's board members in February. In March, the same judge ruled that the administration's removal of most grant money and staff from the congressionally created agency was also legal, as long as the agency was maintained at the minimum level required by law. USADF was created as an independent agency in 1980, and its board members must be confirmed by the U.S. Senate. In 2023, Congress allocated $46 million to the agency to invest in small agricultural and energy infrastructure projects and other economic development initiatives in 22 African countries. On Feb. 19, Trump issued an executive order that said USADF, the U.S. Institute of Peace, the Inter-American Foundation and the Presidio Trust should be scaled back to the minimum presence required by law. At the time, USADF had five of its seven board seats filled. A few days later, an administration official told Ward Brehm that he was fired, and emails were sent to the other board members notifying them that they had also been terminated. Those emails were never received, however, because they were sent to the wrong email addresses. The four board members, believing they still held their posts because they had not been given notice, met in March and passed a resolution appointing Brehm as the president of the board. But Trump had already appointed Pete Marocco as the new chairman of what the administration believed to now be a board of one. Since then, both men have claimed to be the president of the agency, and Brehm filed the lawsuit March 6. Leon said that even though they didn't receive the emails, the four board members were effectively terminated in February, and so they didn't have the authority to appoint Brehm to lead the board. Brehm's attorney, Bradley Girard with Democracy Forward, expressed disappointment with the judge's decision. 'But in our parallel case, Rural Development Innovations v. Marocco, a grantee and two USADF employees have also challenged Marocco's unlawful appointment," Girard wrote in an email. "We are hopeful that the Court will reject the defendants' attempt to ignore the constitutional and statutory requirements for appointing board members to federal agencies.' That lawsuit is still pending before the same judge. In that case, two USADF staffers and a consulting firm based in Zambia that works closely with USADF contend that the Trump administration's efforts to deeply scale back the agency wrongly usurps Congress' powers. They also say Marocco was unlawfully appointed to the board, in part because he was never confirmed by the Senate as required.

Washington AG exploring potential challenge to new federal travel restrictions
Washington AG exploring potential challenge to new federal travel restrictions

Yahoo

time34 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Washington AG exploring potential challenge to new federal travel restrictions

Jun. 10—Washington is "taking a careful look" at where it has standing to challenge President Donald Trump's recent proclamation restricting travel from 12 countries, Attorney General Nick Brown said during a news conference Tuesday. "The president says his travel ban is about national security, but this racist order will not make anyone safer," Brown said. The restrictions, Brown said, have stalled medical care, "struck fear" into Afghan refugees who previously aided the United States military and could hinder international students looking to study at American universities. "We are actively looking at ways to challenge this ban, but it will be difficult," Brown said, adding that the Supreme Court has upheld other travel bans in recent years. Trump last Wednesday announced that citizens from 12 countries — Afghanistan, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen — would be barred from entering the United States. The president also partially banned citizens from Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela. In a video posted on social media, Trump said the "strength of the restrictions we're applying depends on the threat posed" and said countries could be added or removed from the list. "But we will not allow people who enter our country who wish to do us harm," Trump said. "And nothing will stop us from keeping America safe." The restrictions continue a trend by Trump, who issued several bans on international travel during his first administration. The first, which barred travel from seven majority-Muslim countries, faced swift backlash and was challenged within days by then-Attorney General Bob Ferguson. "I'll always be proud that Washington state was indeed the first state to take on that first travel ban, the first state to take on Donald Trump, and the first state to defeat Donald Trump in court," Ferguson said. "It is a little difficult to wrap my mind around the fact that we are back here again on another travel ban." Ferguson said that Washington will lead other states on standing up against Trump's orders. "And I want all Washingtonians to know that," Ferguson said. "We have a new attorney general, but guess what? The good news is he is as deeply connected to this issue, and as resolved to stand up against it, as we were eight years ago." Among those feeling the impact of the travel ban is Katia Jasmin, founder and executive director of Creole Resources in Spokane. During an interview Tuesday, Jasmin said the inclusion of Haiti caught her by surprise. Jasmin said the ban could have wide-ranging effects on Spokane's Haitian community, including deepening the existing trauma that many have experienced. Jasmin said the ban could also result in family separation, as many permanent residents or citizens still have family abroad — something she knows firsthand. "I have my brother that lives in Haiti, and he comes to see us, and now he won't be able to come and see us," Jasmin said. Katia's brother, Jay, was set to serve as the best man in an upcoming wedding — plans that seem to be in doubt. "My brother won't be able to see us, so I don't know how long we'll have to wait to be able to see him," Jasmin said. The restrictions, Jasmin said, will ultimately have minimal impact on safety. "If you people are scared of gang members coming to the States, I don't know how we are scared of the gang members; they don't have visas, they don't have anything. I don't think a gang member from Haiti will come here to the United States to do anything," Jasmin said. "So whatever they try to say that it's for, the security or stuff, it's not true."

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store