Airlines' green fuel dreams stall as SAF projects collapse

Time of India

2 days ago

In 2019, Scott Kirby, the chief executive of
United Airlines
, hailed its new contract with green jet fuel producer
World Energy
as an example for the aviation industry to follow in its drive to cut emissions.
Six years later, that collaboration is dead.
Boston-based World Energy was one of the first companies in the world to produce commercial quantities of sustainable aviation fuel (
SAF
), a type of renewable fuel made from sources such as used cooking oil, agricultural residues and other waste.
Its Paramount refinery near downtown Los Angeles had been a rare success story, supplying millions of gallons of SAF a year to airlines such as United Airlines and fellow US carrier JetBlue Airways. The plant, which began operations in 2016, was central to the carriers' pledges to help the airline industry switch to a blend of 10 per cent SAF by the end of this decade.
But the refinery quietly ceased operations in April. And World Energy's plans for a second plant in Houston have stalled amid a lack of commitment from the industry, according to Chief Executive Gene Gebolys.
"Some airlines were engaged in a pretty disingenuous effort to put out press releases" overstating their commitment to SAF projects, Gebolys said, without naming any companies. "People sometimes said too much in the past and did too little."
Still, Gebolys acknowledged that some airlines have made a genuine effort to support SAF producers, while governments also needed to step up with stronger incentives to drive progress.
The termination of United's fuel purchase contract with World Energy - and the closure of the Paramount refinery - have not previously been reported.
United Airlines said it ended its relationship with World Energy "a few years ago", without providing a reason. A JetBlue spokesperson said World Energy has been a "valued partner" since 2020 and it will continue working with the company.
World Energy's struggles mirror the plight of dozens of clean fuel startups, according to a Reuters review of the sector. Nearly 20 years after the first commercial flight powered partly by biofuels made the short hop from London to Amsterdam, Reuters found that the airline industry's plans to go green before regulators start penalising them are little more than a pipe dream.
No clear pathway
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), a global body that represents 340 airlines, forecasts SAF will account for 0.7 per cent of total jet fuel this year, up from 0.3 per cent in 2024. Air passenger traffic, meanwhile, is expected to rise 6 per cent this year, IATA says.
IATA has set a goal of net zero emissions by 2050, a target that would require airlines to ramp up SAF use to 118 billion gallons annually, a more than 300-fold increase from current production.
Airline industry leaders point to a wave of new SAF initiatives they say will spark a boom similar to the rapid rise of electric vehicles and solar energy.
However, the aviation sector has yet to publish a comprehensive roadmap or a transparent database of upcoming SAF projects that would allow regulators and the public to assess the credibility of these projections.
To scrutinise the industry's claims, Reuters built its own database of airline SAF initiatives - offering the most comprehensive view yet of the sector's faltering green progress and revealing that the industry has no clear pathway to hitting net zero targets.
While airlines have announced 165 SAF projects over the past 12 years, only 36 have materialised, Reuters found. Among those, Reuters uncovered problems at three of the largest - including World Energy - that exemplify the systemic challenges plaguing the SAF sector.
Of the remaining projects, 23 have been abandoned, 27 are delayed or on indefinite hold, 31 have yet to produce any fuel, and 4 are SAF credit deals, where no physical fuel is delivered.
For the other 44 projects, Reuters was unable to find any public updates since their initial announcements.
If all the pending projects announced by airlines reached their maximum potential, it would only add 12 billion gallons of SAF production, the Reuters analysis found. That's about 10 per cent of what's needed to hit the net zero target.
Airlines pin the problems on the oil industry, saying it isn't producing enough fuel.
"These guys are the cause of the problem, and they've got to start playing their part," said Willie Walsh, director of IATA, the global airline lobby, and a former chief executive of British Airways and its parent International Airlines Group .
At the moment, SAF costs three to five times more than jet fuel and some oil company executives argue that there is limited demand from airlines at current prices.
"I'd like there to be a shortage. I actually see an overcapacity," Bernard Pinatel, the head of downstream and marketing and services at TotalEnergies, told a press briefing in June.
Paramount 'reset'
The Paramount refinery, which used cooking oil and animal fat from a local abattoir to make fuel, repeatedly stumbled in its efforts to expand and all 35 employees were laid off in April, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The future of the plant is uncertain, the two people said, after World Energy's partner, Air Products, withdrew from the project in February, citing challenging commercial conditions tied to the expansion and operations. Air Products, a US industrial gases and chemicals company, had been slated to lead a $2 billion expansion of the site.
World Energy CEO Gebolys said Paramount's closure was a "reset" because the refurbishment was over budget and behind schedule. He said it would come back online, without giving a time frame. He declined to comment about the layoffs.
According to more than a dozen people directly involved in the sector, airlines play minimal roles in the execution of projects and, in most cases, their only commitment is to buy SAF when their partners produce it.
What's more, airlines are making bold projections about SAF use and emissions reductions based on unproven technologies or early-stage projects run by startups with no experience of commercial production, Reuters found.
Of the 36 projects that have produced any SAF, all but one rely on the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) process to convert waste oils, fats and grease into jet fuel. HEFA was the technology used at Paramount.
However, HEFA plants are severely constrained by the limited availability of suitable raw materials and cannot meet the industry's long-term fuel demands, three industry specialists said.
IATA chief economist and sustainability executive Marie Owens Thomsen disputed the idea airlines only play a minimal role, saying they were striking SAF purchase agreements and investing in new technologies, supporting early-stage innovation and collaborating with research institutions.
She also said alternative ways of making SAF needed to be developed alongside HEFA, as this process alone would not be sufficient to produce enough fuel to hit net zero by 2050.
'Exercise in futility'
Aviation accounts for 2.5 per cent of global emissions of planet-warming gases such as carbon dioxide. This figure is expected to rise as air traffic more than doubles from 2019 levels by 2050 and fuel use rises 59 per cent, according to environmental advocacy group Transport & Environment (T&E).
By painting a picture of imminent breakthroughs and success in producing SAF at scale, airlines can bolster their green credentials while deflecting pressure for more disruptive interventions, such as stricter emissions caps or higher carbon taxes, the group said.
"This is first and foremost about justifying never-ending growth and pretending that you can do that without heating the planet more and more - which you cannot do," said Almuth Ernsting, a campaigner with advocacy group Biofuelwatch.
Failing to find a solution could prove costly. Under new EU rules, airlines face escalating mandates to use SAF on flights departing from EU airports. The mandate starts with at least 2 per cent of their fuel in 2025, climbing to 6 per cent by 2030, and eventually hitting 70 per cent by 2050.
European SAF mandates are expected to cost airlines $2.9 billion in additional fuel purchases and compliance expenses this year, according to IATA estimates.
The return to power of US President Donald Trump could further hamper the industry's green transition. Trump has pledged to roll back many incentives his predecessor, Joe Biden, offered to SAF and other green energy projects.
As projects flounder in the United States, the US airline industry has pinned hopes on a new SAF bonanza in Panama. It's already hitting the skids, Reuters found.
SGP BioEnergy, headquartered in New York, pledged in 2022 to build the world's largest SAF facility, in collaboration with the government of Panama. The plant is to make green fuel from industrial hemp oil and used cooking oil.
Due to start this year, production has been pushed back to 2027. SGP BioEnergy Chief Executive Randy Letang said the delay was largely due to airlines showing less interest in backing SAF projects than in the past.
Panama's energy secretary did not respond to a request for comment.
After the plant opens, the company may switch to making renewable diesel for trucks and ships, because those industries showed more enthusiasm than aviation, Letang said.
"We're only going to take it so far with SAF until we determine whether or not the airlines are actually serious about making the commitments for this fuel," he said.
Letang said airlines were competing to announce their own marquee projects, when producers actually needed consortiums made up of many carriers to invest in large-scale projects.
"That's how you build this industry. Without that, it's an exercise in futility, quite frankly," he said. "The airlines could do a lot more."
A few years ago, Letang was striking big SAF deals with major airlines through his previous biofuels venture, SG Preston. In 2016, JetBlue announced a 10-year commitment to buy commercial volumes of green fuel from SG Preston, calling it one of the largest such deals in history. JetBlue said in 2021 it would double down on the deal as it pursued a target to use SAF for 8 per cent of its fuel needs by 2023.
Australia's Qantas Airways signed a similar 10-year deal with SG Preston in 2017 for 8 million gallons of SAF annually starting in 2020 to help power flights between Los Angeles and Australia.
The deals were based on SG Preston's plan to build five plants across North America - two in Ohio and one each in Indiana, Michigan, and Ontario. None has been built.
SG Preston filed for bankruptcy in 2022, according to company filings. A spokesperson for Letang's current firm, SGP BioEnergy, said the two companies had no affiliation.
New technology
While most SAF projects rely on HEFA, British startup
Velocys
uses Fischer-Tropsch technology, which converts waste such as garbage, wood chips, or flared gas into clean fuel.
IAG - the parent of British Airways, Iberia,
Vueling
and Aer Lingus - has been an enthusiastic backer, announcing four major SAF initiatives with Velocys over the past 15 years. But despite producing SAF in pilot projects, none of the Velocys projects has reached commercial production.
Its challenges began in 2010 with a project to turn methane from a London landfill into jet fuel. That venture collapsed when its main backer went bankrupt.
Since then Velocys has attempted to build its own plants - including in Oklahoma - but it has proven too costly and technically challenging.
After shutting the Oklahoma plant, Velocys shifted focus to two new projects: one at Immingham in northeast England and another in Mississippi.
British oil major Shell and IAG initially backed Velocys's English venture, and the British government awarded a £27 million ($37 million) grant in 2022, then another £3 million in July. However, Shell backed out in 2021 to pursue its own SAF ventures. Shell declined further comment.
While IAG has no purchase deal with Velocys, it maintains a partnership and expects production to begin in 2029.
Velocys Chief Executive Matthew Viergutz remains optimistic, saying the company has learned from past setbacks. However, the Mississippi project is on hold pending clarity on US SAF regulations.
The Immingham project was meant to start supplying British Airways last year. The plant site is a dusty field, empty but for a blue portable toilet lying on its side.
Velocys has yet to sell a drop of green jet fuel to IAG or any other airline.