Anger over Gaza could unseat top UK ministers: Pollsters
Figures including Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood will likely face major battles to keep their seats despite Prime Minister Keir Starmer's decision to potentially recognize a Palestinian state, The Independent reported on Saturday.
At the last election in 2024, a pro-Palestine candidate unseated a key member of Starmer's team, Jonathan Ashworth. Streeting retained his seat but with a tiny majority of 528, down from 5,198 in 2019.
Mounting public anger over Britain's response to the Gaza war could cause major embarrassment for the government at the next election, pollsters say.
Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader and now independent MP, has announced a new party that could also take a chunk of votes from the government by highlighting the Gaza crisis.
John Curtice, the country's top pollster, told The Independent that Starmer's pledge to recognize a Palestinian state in September — should Israel fail to meet key conditions — 'may not be sufficient' for voters.
Both Streeting and Mahmood are in significant danger of losing their seats at the next election, while other ministers and MPs could also fall if anger continues to grow over Gaza.
Starmer had also 'lost out' on votes in his own constituency last year because of concerns over Gaza, Curtice said.
However, the prime minister's majority is substantially larger than some of his Cabinet ministers.
'Here is somebody (Starmer) who spent a great deal of time and effort trying to reconnect with the Jewish community, and now he's finding himself having to spend a great deal of effort trying to reconnect with the Muslim community. It is very difficult to keep himself on board with both groups at the moment,' Curtice said.
When Corbyn launched his party last week, he said its members would campaign heavily on Palestine, as well as Britain's response to Israel's war on Gaza.
Luke Tryl of polling firm More in Common said events in Gaza and government policy toward the war have revealed 'deeper' problems within the ruling Labour Party.
'When we have done focus groups with voters in Muslim areas, particularly some of those who backed or were thinking about backing pro-Gaza independent candidates, I compared it to speaking to voters in the red wall after Brexit,' he said.
'In the sense that Brexit was the thing which caused the split, but it actually brought to the fore much deeper resentments — that they have been taken from granted, ignored, left behind by Labour … I think we're going to see exactly the same thing with Muslim voters.'
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