NBA Draft Lottery takeaways: Mavericks stun, Spurs have options, 76ers cash in
It was as stunning as it was wild and unpredictable all rolled into one. On Monday night in Chicago, Nico Harrison and the Dallas Mavericks received an unimaginable gift from the basketball gods. A get-out-of-jail-free card. A second chance to right the ship after their decision to move on from Luka Dončić and trade him to Los Angeles for Anthony Davis, in what has already been determined an all-time swing-and-a-miss by Dallas for a variety of reasons.
It is still surreal to say this: the Mavericks, with a 1.8% chance to come out with the No. 1 pick in the draft, won the lottery and made themselves hundreds of millions of dollars in the process because they now get to select Cooper Flagg. It marked the fourth-lowest percentage chance of reeling in the top pick since the draft lottery was implemented in 1985, when the Knicks won the No. 1 selection and Patrick Ewing.
Everything surrounding the Mavericks organization was the definition of negativity. After Harrison made a trade that was collectively criticized, to say he " didn't quite know " how important Doncic was to the Dallas fan base made it far worse for the brass across the franchise. Well, here's a newsflash: the 18-year-old Flagg could mean as much as anybody to wear the Mavericks jersey. The 6-foot-9 forward can do it all on both ends of the floor, playing like a guard and impacting his teammates in a variety of ways, starting with his outstanding defensive skill set. His floor? In my mind, it's that he's just a very good NBA player. But the fact that Dallas won this lottery is utterly absurd. The Mavericks were staring at organizational hell and apathy from their fan base as a middling Western Conference team. Instead, the blend of Flagg with some star power gives this lineup some real possibilities:
Before getting to four other takeaways from draft night, the Mavs winning the lottery also provides the latest example that there are really zero guarantees to tanking in the NBA, and that the league's worst teams haven't cashed in on lottery night. The Utah Jazz, who went 17-65, won't even be picking in the top three of this draft. In fact, it marked the third straight year that the Association's worst team will be selecting fifth on draft night. The Hornets and Wizards, who equaled the Jazz with a 14% chance to land the top selection, are picking fourth and sixth selectively. In this set-up, tanking is not rewarded like we see in the NFL. It certainly provides more thrills on lottery night, but for those franchises outside the top three who are starving to turn things around, it's a difficult pill to swallow.
Here are four more takeaways from draft lottery night.
The draft begins at No. 2 and the San Antonio Spurs have no shortage of options at their disposal.
Think about the state of the organization: The Spurs collected their most wins since the 2018-19 season with Victor Wembanyama averaging 24.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists with an NBA-leading 3.8 blocks per game. Had he not been shut down in February, he would have claimed defensive player of the year and we would have gotten to see Wemby with 2023 All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox more often. While Wemby's status for next season is up in the air due to blood clotting in his right shoulder, provided he is healthy, San Antonio has a great ceiling with Fox, Devin Vassell and this season's NBA Rookie of the Year, Stephon Castle.
When it came up that San Antonio would be picking No. 2 overall, two years after selecting Wembanyama with the No. 1 pick, it really puts the Spurs in a position to either get the second-best player in this draft class or do something that carries value in this stacked class of high-level college talent: trade the pick. Would San Antonio want to draft Rutgers guard Dylan Harper and put him in a backcourt that already has several roles defined? What about 6-foot-10 Ace Bailey, who is a tremendous shooter and carries significant upside with his length, versatility and guard skills at his size? It feels like San Antonio, which did give up four first-round picks for Fox at the deadline but possesses six firsts in the next eight years, could trade out of No. 2, get more capital and move down a couple of slots to select Khaman Maluach from Duke or Derik Queen from Maryland.
This pick is also ammo in the event San Antonio wants to explore acquiring Giannis Antetokounmpo from Milwaukee, after it was reported Monday that the Bucks superstar is open to moving teams . The ball is in Spurs general manager Brian Wright's court, in another critical decision for the organization's trajectory.
There was a stroke of luck for Philadelphia sports fans on Monday night.
The 76ers will have the third pick in the draft. With a top-six protected pick after the 2020 trade that sent Al Horford to the Thunder and brought Danny Green to Philadelphia, the Sixers are obviously a big winner from lottery night, as they get to keep the pick and it's the No. 3 selection. This team needs that pick. When 77% of your payroll is taken up by Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey, you need a pick as valuable as the third slot in the draft.
At the end of the day, Philadelphia needs Embiid and George to be healthy for them to get back on track after their offseason championship of last year did not translate when the ball was tipped. But, finding another wing or big man for the rotation should be the way they go if they keep the pick. I would not be surprised if we see either Kon Knueppel or Maluach from Duke go in this slot.
The Jazz and Wizards are in a critical offseason for their future and will be selecting fifth and sixth in this draft.
Utah and Washington, D.C. fans, I know you wanted to be the first pick in this draft, but this class has the talent to change your franchise. With a combined 10 first-rounders through 2032 for the Washington Wizards and multiple first-rounders for the Utah Jazz, the time is now for them to start drafting well and build this thing up.
I would expect we see Texas one-and-done star Tre Johnson on the radar here, as well as Baylor product VJ Edgecombe, Knueppel, or even Carter Bryant out of Arizona. Will we see these teams go after bucket-getters or elect for the interior? Buckle up.
To think that the Nets went 26-56 and are picking at No. 8 in the draft is nothing short of tough for Brooklyn.
They also should be active during the offseason as the only team in the NBA with over $40 million in cap space, not to mention the player movement and the drama within this sport. With the eighth pick, Brooklyn could have the likes of Jeremiah Fears from Oklahoma, Jase Richardson from Michigan State or even Knueppel from Duke. We know one thing for certain: the Nets need offense after ranking 28th in the NBA in efficiency this past season and 26th in 3-point field goal percentage. If Knueppel is around, I could see them going his route or, if not, perhaps a ball-handling guard that they really like, whether that's Fears, Johnson or Kasparas Jakucionis.
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That's the same volume as Lauri Markkanen, Rui Hachimura, and Jonathan Kuminga. You know who else took more? Jeremy Sochan. Yes, Sochan had 5.1 per game. Sochan had more rim attempts than Wemby. What are we doing here? Advertisement The problem is obvious: there's no room. Sochan can't shoot (career 29% from deep) and the rest of the perimeter isn't any better. So even though Wemby can shoot, he has to for the offense to breathe. The Spurs have added creators, but they haven't added spacing to open lanes for Wemby he should be owning. The paths forward The Spurs are at a crossroads. Their actions say they want to win now. Their roster says they're not ready. And Wembanyama's rookie contract clock is ticking. So, what should they do? Option 1: Draft Harper, keep Fox and Castle In 2022, the Kings chose Fox over Tyrese Haliburton. Not because Haliburton was worse, but because they didn't think the two could coexist. Maybe they were right. Trading Haliburton for Sabonis helped end a 16-year playoff drought. Advertisement But in hindsight, they acted too fast. Now Haliburton is clearly the better point guard and running one of the best offenses in the league, and the Kings are still trying to figure out what their post-Fox future looks like. The lesson isn't don't choose. The lesson is don't choose before you have to. That's the case for keeping the trio intact. Draft Harper. Let it breathe. Give the coaching staff a year or two or three to figure out who works best with Wemby. Castle's cutting, Harper's slashing, Fox's speed all bring value. Maybe it works. And on defense, it should. Castle was already guarding top options as a rookie. Harper has the size and instincts to be switchable. And when Fox is locked in, he's a defensive playmaker fighting through screens and picking up steals. If the Spurs stick with all three, they could smother perimeter scorers and funnel everything to the league's best rim protector. But Wemby is such a dominant paint protector that he can erase defensive breakdowns. What he can't do is manufacture spacing for himself on the other end. So there'd be more pressure for them to figure it out on offense no matter how good the team's defense becomes. And that concern is shared for the guards, not just Wemby. Harper projects best as a lead initiator with shooting around him, not as the third wheel on a team that can't space the floor. There were better lottery outcomes for him. And if Harper is the pick, what happens to Castle? He's not a shooter. He's not running the offense. So is the reigning Rookie of the Year now a low-usage cutter who doesn't space the floor? It's unclear how Castle's development tracks next to Fox and Harper. Advertisement This option doesn't just assume internal development. It assumes internal compliance that no one pushes for touches, for usage, for clarity. It assumes Wemby will keep deferring while the team figures itself out. San Antonio has a pile of extra first-rounders and zero albatross deals, so they can patch holes on the fly if things sour. So they could take Harper and wait. But if they're wrong, they won't just waste touches. They'll waste time. Option 2: Trade Castle If San Antonio believes Harper has higher long-term upside as a lead initiator, they could explore the idea of moving Castle while his value is sky-high. He's the reigning Rookie of the Year. He's young, versatile, and scalable. And he plays with a maturity being his years. But if his jumper never comes around, and Fox and Harper are ahead of him on the ball, his role could get squeezed quickly. Advertisement Maybe the Bucks would prefer Castle and picks over Harper in a deal for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Maybe the Celtics bite on a Castle-Vassell-picks package for Jaylen Brown. Maybe another young star becomes available. Option 3: Trade down Teams like the Jazz, Wizards, Pelicans, and Nets all need initiators. Maybe one of them would offer a haul to move up for Harper. Looking at the history of trade downs, usually a team would give up their own first and one future first. But considering Harper's upside perhaps the Spurs could haggle for much more. The Nets, holding the 8th pick and a mountain of future firsts plus Cam Johnson, are the most interesting trade partner. Harper is a local kid with star potential, and the Nets have a clean slate he could grow with. If the Spurs want to pivot toward shooting, Johnson plus picks is a logical foundation. Advertisement In that range, Duke wing Kon Knueppel, Arizona forward Carter Bryant, and Washington State wing Cedric Coward would all be strong fits. They bring shooting and versatility, which is exactly what the current Spurs core lacks. The question: Are any of them worth passing on Harper's ceiling for? Option 4: Trade out of the draft for a star The Spurs might not need another teenager. They already have youth like Wemby, Castle, Vassell, Sochan, and a war chest of future picks even after adding Fox. So maybe the next move is to skip the draft entirely and chase a star. Right now, the Giannis whispers persist. They've also been linked to Kevin Durant. Around the league, sources say the Spurs have explored packaging the 14th pick with a player to upgrade the roster. Whether that upgrade is marginal or massive depends on who shakes loose, but it's clear San Antonio isn't waiting around. So if Giannis actually is available, maybe San Antonio's willing to put Harper on the table. Advertisement Option 5: Trade Fox Fox signed up to be Tony Parker to Wembanyama's Tim Duncan. But the Spurs weren't planning on drafting another primary ball-handler months later. Plans change. There's a case to move Fox before he signs a four-year, $229 million extension — or even a cheaper hometown discount deal. He turns 28 later this year. He's made just one playoff appearance. He still doesn't have a reliable jumper. And for a guard who lives off speed, any athletic slippage could get ugly, fast. And even if he ages gracefully and ends up being by far the most expensive of three quality shot-creators, he won't come close to having the trade value he holds right now. San Antonio has one last window to sell high. Advertisement Harper, on the other hand, is 19 with real long-term upside. Castle is younger, cheaper, and easier to fit in because he's a far better cutter and defender than Fox. It's not as if Fox and Wemby made a great first impression. Granted they ran only 46 pick-and-rolls together, they scored a measly 0.77 points per play. A full training camp might help, but maybe not if the team's shooting situation doesn't improve. Plus Castle and Harper also need touches. Fox/Wemby simply might not be the high-usage combo they envisioned. If moving Fox were on the table, the logical targets are the teams that were connected to him at the deadline: Miami Heat: Fox for Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jović, the No. 20 pick, and unprotected firsts in 2030 and 2032. Fox upgrades Miami's point guard spot, while San Antonio gets picks and three shooters including a young piece in Jović. Brooklyn Nets: Fox for Cam Johnson and draft capital. Johnson spaces the floor and fits the timeline. Houston Rockets: Fox (plus Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley) for Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, the 10th pick, and future firsts. FVV gives the Spurs a vet, while Smith would be a fascinating fit next to Wemby. Other playmaking-needy teams like the Bulls, Magic, Suns, and Timberwolves could emerge as dark horses. Phoenix is especially interesting: if the Spurs really want Durant, Fox's salary helps make the math work. Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, or Devin Vassell could be added to build a separate bigger deal. Advertisement But there's real risk here. Fox is a known commodity as an All-Star in his prime, capable of carrying an offense, capable of making Wemby's life easier today. Harper is unproven. If his jumper never levels up or his fit with Castle overlaps too much, San Antonio may have traded a sure thing for a question mark. You don't get many chances to pair a young superstar with a reliable point guard who actually wants to be there. If Harper doesn't hit, they'll spend the next five years trying to replace what they already had. When San Antonio traded for Fox, they were trying to make the playoffs. Instead, both Fox and Wemby got hurt. The team cratered. And the lottery gave them an unexpected gift. Don't waste the alien If the Spurs keep loading up on guards with questionable jumpers, they're doing it around a star who should be the gravitational center of the entire offense. Instead, they're building a roster that pulls him to the perimeter while everyone else clogs the lane. Advertisement It's not that Castle, Fox, and Harper are bad players. It's that together, they risk becoming a well-intentioned mess. Add inconsistent shooters like Sochan and Johnson, and the Spurs look like a roster that needs less of a tweak and more of an overhaul. Maybe keeping all three guards works. Maybe Castle becomes a league-average shooter, maybe Harper becomes a star, and maybe Fox finds his ideal role. But that's a lot of maybes and this isn't the kind of decision you get to re-do. The Spurs don't just have a top pick. They have a rare opportunity to choose a direction, and not waste Wemby's prime untangling a roster that never fit. Advertisement Because we've seen this before. Kevin Garnett in Minnesota. Anthony Davis in New Orleans. Generational bigs held back by years of mismatched rosters and delayed decisions. The cautionary tales are clear. So is the counterexample — and the Spurs know it better than anyone. Tim Duncan's prime was maximized because San Antonio built with precision. Shooting. Defense. Clarity. Manu Ginobili didn't need the ball to impact the game. Tony Parker could bend defenses without dominating possessions. Everyone fit around Duncan, and San Antonio always evolved with the times as the NBA changed. And because of that, it lasted two decades. Wembanyama deserves that kind of infrastructure. And right now, it feels like the Spurs are building a roster better suited for 2005. But the blueprint has never been clearer: surround your generational star with players who space the floor, make quick decisions, and elevate him without always needing the ball to do it. Do that, and Wembanyama changes the sport. Don't, and years from now we'll talk about how the Spurs landed an alien and built a roster that made him look human.
