Top 5 Favorites To Replace Pope Francis After First Day of Conclave
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
The first day of the papal conclave ended with black smoke billowing from the Sistine Chapel, signaling that no new pope had been chosen after the first ballot. Here is a look at what betting odds say about the frontrunner to become the next leader of the Catholic Church.
Why It Matters
Whoever becomes the next pope will instantly become perhaps the most recognizable living religious figure, holding considerable sway over the world's 1.4 billion Catholics. The conclave began on Wednesday to elect the successor to Pope Francis, who died on April 21 after leading the church since 2013.
On Wednesday, 133 cardinals gathered at the Vatican to elect a new pope—a process that has no set time frame. Conclaves have lasted for years, historically, though the most recent ones have lasted for only a few days. A candidate must receive two-thirds majority to become the next pope. The election a new pope will be signaled by white smoke from the chapel.
Cardinals attend the Pro Eligendo Mass in St. Peter's Basilica on May 7, 2025, in Vatican City.
Cardinals attend the Pro Eligendo Mass in St. Peter's Basilica on May 7, 2025, in Vatican City.
Vatican Media/Vatican Pool - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images
What To Know
The conclave is shrouded in privacy, so there's no clear way to know who cardinals are considering from the outside. But that hasn't stopped traders from betting big on who the next cardinal could be.
Here's a look at the top five favorites to replace Pope Francis in three key betting markets.
Polymarket
Pietro Parolin — 28 percent likelihood
28 percent likelihood Luis Antonio Tagle — 20 percent likelihood
20 percent likelihood Matteo Zuppi — 10 percent likelihood
10 percent likelihood Pierbattista Pizzaballa — 9 percent likelihood
9 percent likelihood Peter Erdo — 8 percent likelihood
Kalshi
Pietro Parolin — 30 percent
30 percent Luis Antonio Tagle — 22 percent
22 percent Pierbattista Pizzaballa — 11 percent
11 percent Matteo Zuppi — 10 percent
10 percent Peter Turkson — 8 percent
OddsChecker
Pietro Parolin — 29 percent
29 percent Luis Antonio Tagle — 23 percent
23 percent Pierbattista Pizzaballa — 13 percent
13 percent Matteo Zuppi — 13 percent
13 percent Peter Erdo — 9 percent
What People Are Saying
Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, told The Times: "When the conclave begins, it is very much about prayerful listening and trying to be attentive. I've got to be still enough inside of me to catch the resonance of what is being said."
Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, the dean of the College of Cardinals, speaking before the conclave began: "Today's world expects much from the church regarding the safeguarding of those fundamental human and spiritual values without which human coexistence will not be better nor bring good to future generations."
What Happens Next
The cardinals are expected to continue voting on Thursday as billions of people across the globe watch closely for signs of the new pope.
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