Tasmania is facing another hung parliament. It could cost the state its AFL team
The future of Tasmania's AFL team and the state's fiscal health hang in the balance amid a deep political divide over the proposed Hobart stadium, which is backed by the major parties but fiercely opposed by the Greens and some of the crossbench.
Voters will head to the polls on Saturday for the second time in 16 months - and the fourth state election in seven years. But few are optimistic it will lead to a new period of political stability.
How we got here
The election was called after Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff, who led a minority government relying on independents and a Jacqui Lambie Network MP, lost a motion of no confidence in the lower house on June 5.
Opposition Leader Dean Winter used his budget reply speech to table the motion, which was won by 18-17 votes, saying it was in response to the state's budget, plans to sell power companies and the bungled delivery of new Spirit of Tasmania ships.
Six days after the motion, Rockcliff visited Governor Barbara Baker to request an early election instead of being forced to quit.
'Another election is not what I wanted, and I know that it's not what Tasmanians wanted,' Rockcliff said on June 11.
'But it was forced upon us by the Leader of the Opposition.'
What's footy got to do with it?
The proposed $945 million Macquarie Point Stadium in Hobart remains a hot-button topic for many Tasmanians going into the election.
In 2023, after years of lobbying and negotiations, the state was finally given a license to build a team – The Tasmanian Devils– and is slated to join the league in 2028. The AFL signed commitments with the Tasmanian and federal government for the construction of a 23,000-seat roofed stadium – a condition of the club's entry into the AFL.
No stadium, no team. Since then, the stadium has been embroiled in political turmoil and economic uncertainty, with recent opinion polling showing 60 per cent of Tasmanians oppose the development demanded by the AFL.
The election means a vote to approve the new stadium has been delayed. So what happens now?
The state government has already missed a June 30 deadline from the AFL to obtain all required planning and environmental approvals for the stadium. Legislation to approve the stadium will need to be tabled under the next government, with new numbers in the lower house.
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Both Labor and Liberal leaders have said they will support the stadium, however the Greens, Nationals and some independents oppose the development.
It's unlikely that either major party will win a majority of seats in this election, so they'll need the support of the Greens or crossbench to form government.
One threat is that anti-stadium crossbenchers demand the stadium plans be dropped or altered, a big no-go for the AFL.
The 18 AFL club presidents unanimously backed the league's plan for a 19th team. However, they'll have a chance to withdraw their support if the stadium deal falls through. Until the election results become clearer, the stadium and the Devils hang in limbo.
Who said what?
Governor Barbara Baker in June: 'Notwithstanding the recent 2024 election, the public interest in avoiding the cost of another election and the prevailing public mood against holding an election, I have granted Premier Rockliff a dissolution.'
Opposition Leader Dean Winter: 'Today I have tabled a notice of motion that says this House has no confidence in the Premier. Because he has wrecked the budget. Because he is planning to sell our power companies, our ports and our public transport. And because no one can trust him after his handling of the Spirit of Tasmania fiasco.'
AFL chief executive Andrew Dillon: 'As we sit here now, 2028 is still on the agenda. We are looking forward to working with the government to deliver a stadium for all of Tasmania.'
What do Tasmanians actually care about?
University of Melbourne election analyst Adrian Beaumont said a new AFL team was not the central issue for most Tasmanians.
Rather, many were more concerned with the state of the budget, housing and health.
In a recent YouGov poll, 52 per cent of Tasmanian voters cited health as one of their top priorities and 45 per cent ranked building more public housing as a key concern.
Reducing state debt was a top concern for 41 per cent of voters, while 34 per cent opposed the privatisation of state assets and 33 per cent cited opposition to the Macquarie Point stadium as one of their top priorities.
Only 22 per cent supported the stadium proposal, while less than one in five voters prioritised policies supporting privatisation or cutting public services.
Meanwhile, a survey of 842 Tasmanian voters, conducted for The Australia Institute, found Tasmanians overwhelmingly felt dudded by the AFL and believed the state should renegotiate with the league.
Beaumont said the two major parties' steadfast support of a new stadium could lead to a surge in support for minor parties and independents.
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'People who oppose the stadium have to vote for someone other than the major parties,' he said.
Beaumont also believes Labor's refusal to do a deal with the Greens to form government in 2024 has lost them support from the left.
What do the polls say?
Most polls indicate a hung parliament is the most likely outcome, which would force the major parties to negotiate with the Greens or independents to form government.
Labor could form government with the Greens, a partnership the party rejected after the 2024 election. But Winter has maintained his position that he would only do deals with 'sensible' independents.
Election analyst Kevin Bonham said that while he initially expected Labor to win the most seats, more recent polls suggest otherwise.
'This has led to a view that Labor's bringing down of the government could have actually backfired or at least failed to impress,' Bonham wrote on his blog.
'Tasmanians could be voting for more of the same or perhaps even a better Liberal position.'
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