This state is making Dems very excited

Politico

13-05-2025

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Some Democrats can hardly contain their excitement about recent developments they say are the clearest signs yet the party is building toward what could be a generational shift in Georgia politics.
Georgia's popular Republican Gov. Brian Kemp set off a wave of exuberance in Democratic circles last week after he announced that he's passing on a bid to challenge the state's incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff for his seat in next year's midterms.
Immediate speculation turned to MAGA darling and ally of President Donald Trump Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene as the likely pol to step up and challenge Ossoff, a key target to pick off for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the GOP's Senate campaign arm. But on Friday, just days after Kemp's announcement, she laid out in a lengthy social media post her frustrations with the Senate and declined to run.
Left unsaid in her post was whether Greene would launch a bid to replace the term-limited Kemp, which has the political left salivating.
'I think she'd be a fantastic choice for the Republicans,' said Democratic pollster Mike Bocian. 'We would love to see that.' He pointed to Georgia voters' increasing willingness to buck MAGA candidates and suggested it would be an uphill climb for Greene.
He cited shifting racial demographics in the state, as well as Georgia voters exhibiting a willingness to show an independent streak and even at times bucking the president — including sending both Kemp and the state's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger back to their respective offices after Trump recruited Republicans to run against them after both officials refused to overturn the 2020 election results in their state.
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The midterms will test how much Georgia politics are evolving, but Democrats are already excited by a slate of big changes.
Trump won the state in 2024, but before that, former President Joe Biden won it in 2020, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to win the state since Bill Clinton did it in 1992. In that same 2020 election, Ossoff won his seat, defeating Republican incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler.
The last time Trump was not on the ballot, Democrats won, with Sen. Raphael Warnock triumphing over Trump's preferred candidate, former NFL star Herschel Walker, in 2022.
Still, when it comes to controlling the state Legislature and Governor's Mansion, Democrats have been in the wilderness for a generation.
Kemp won narrowly against Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams in 2018, then won by a much wider margin in their rematch four years later. That win continued the GOP dominance of the seat, which has lasted more than 20 years and counting.
Georgia's Democrats last held the Governor's Mansion in 2002, the same year the party lost its majority in the state Senate. Republicans took control of the state House of Representatives two years later — and haven't relinquished control since.
So having the battle-tested Kemp off the 2026 ballot — he's barred from seeking another term as governor and has now said he is not pursuing a Senate run — is making Democrats even more excited.
'I'm not suggesting that Georgia is now a Democratic state,' Bocian added. 'When you take a state like that and give them an unpopular president in the midterm … and on top of that, they don't have Kemp as the model [candidate] on the ballot … that's just like a little extra touch.'
Not everyone is looking at this moment with the same level of exhilaration.
'In no way am I one of the people that's popping champagne bottles right now,' said Hillary Holley, a Democratic strategist based in Atlanta who now leads politics and advocacy for the Women Donors Network, which supports organizations that help elect Democrats in Georgia and nationally.
She said the 2026 midterms will come to symbolize 'a new era in Georgia politics,' pointing to a slew of changes both nationally and within the state where fresh, untested leaders are entering a heightened political cycle. This includes Georgia Democrats who elected a new party chair, Charlie Bailey, earlier this month, and national Democrats, who elected Ken Martin to be new Democratic National Committee chair in February.
'I think we are in unknown territory, and that's not a good or a bad thing. So this could be the opportunity where Democrats show that the work that we have been doing in this state for 15 years now can continue,' Holley added. 'Or this could be a moment where it shows we still have a lot of work to do.'
Others like Kevin Olasanoye, the executive director of the Georgia Democrats, told The Recast he understands the optimism many feel about the party's prospects in the state next year. But he added that for Democrats to be successful there, they will have to answer lingering questions about why they came up short in the 2024 election .
'In Georgia, you can't win here statewide if … you don't have a plan for how you are going to reduce losses that we have seen amongst Latino men and African American men,' Olasanoye said. 'Those don't go away because Brian Kemp is not running' or Greene may decide to run statewide, he continued.
He added that Democrats 'are not off the hook' for answering those questions, so working to drive a cohesive message about why Republicans and Trump are behind the rising cost of eggs and a slowing economy is key if the party wants to win in 2026.
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TATE IS LATE, BUT MAKES HIS CASE FOR MICHIGAN SENATE
As if the Michigan Democratic Senate field wasn't crowded enough, Joe Tate has decided to enter the chat.
The former Michigan House speaker made his intentions official in a video announcement on Mother's Day where he highlighted his military service, including two deployments to Afghanistan as a Marine Corps officer. He later became the first Black person to serve as Democratic leader in the state Legislature.
Should he go on to win the general election in next year's midterms, he'd make history as the state's first Black senator.
On paper, Tate's resume is immaculate. Like many Black folks in Michigan, he traces lineage to grandparents who fled the Jim Crow south for Detroit during a period known as the Great Migration. He overcame the loss of his father, a firefighter who died on the job when he was a baby, to earn a football scholarship to Michigan State University. He had a brief stint in the NFL before his military service and ultimately served four two-year terms in the state Legislature.
He helped Democrats achieve some legislative wins during their short-lived governing trifecta, which they secured in 2022, but lost his gavel earlier this year after Republicans flipped the state House of Representatives in elections last fall. Those wins include helping to pass so-called red-flag gun laws, which allow courts to intervene if there is a plausible threat that a person with a gun could harm themselves or others, repealing the state's 'right-to-work' law and codifying the state's reproductive rights.
For him to secure the nomination, Tate will have to win over Democratic primary voters who may fault him for setbacks in the waning days of his speakership. It's a period that saw Democrats' agenda grind to a standstill following the 2024 election after House Republicans refused to show up to work and a member of Tate's own party was also a no-show to give Democrats a quorum because promises to take up certain priorities were not met.
Another challenge for Tate to overcome is name ID.
'Nobody knows state lawmakers,' quipped one Michigan-based Democratic strategist granted anonymity to speak about Tate's potential headwinds. 'Can't win if no one knows your name.'
Some big names already in the field include Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), seen as a formidable fundraiser, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who made a splash at last summer's Democratic National Convention when she delivered primetime remarks while holding an oversized Project 2025 book that she slammed down on the podium, and former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed, who lost the 2018 gubernatorial primary to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer but who also has a strong following as the host of the podcast 'America Dissected.'
The seat is open after incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters announced he would not seek reelection in 2026.
Republican Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost a Senate race last year to Democrat Elissa Slotkin, announced he's now running again in 2026. Other prominent Michigan Republicans are also said to be eyeing a run but have not officially launched their bids.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS WEEK
Hogg-tied — A DNC panel is recommending that a new election for vice chair be held, paving the way for members to oust the current holder of that position, David Hogg, a survivor of the 2018 Parkland, Florida, high school shooting. Hogg recently announced plans to challenge elected Democratic House members who are 'asleep at the wheel.' There are several steps that have to take place before the DNC holds a new election, but the door is now open. POLITICO's Andrew Howard has the latest.
What else we're watching:
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John Legend weighs in on Ye — R&B crooner John Legend, who has worked closely with the rapper and producer Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, shares his thoughts on his friend and collaborator with The Times of London.