Japan expands military build-up against China with US stand in doubt

Business Standard

29-05-2025

Japan is stepping up efforts to deter China's military ambitions in the Asia-Pacific as Tokyo and other US partners seek clarity from the Trump administration about its plans to counter Beijing's power in the region.
For the first time, Japan sent destroyers through the Taiwan Strait on two occasions in recent months, according to a person familiar with the operations, a sign of its willingness to directly challenge China over the waterway and the self-governing island it claims as its own.
Japan has also increased its military budget and the tempo of its naval exercises as far away as the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, a region Beijing claims almost complete control over but which is a vital trade route for the global economy.
'When I was younger and even in the first decade of this century, we used to stay close to Japan's shores,' said Katsuya Yamamoto, a retired rear admiral in Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force. 'Now the world has changed, and the Japanese people accept that we can't just passively allow China's actions.'
It's not just Japan taking note. China's assertiveness has alarmed many governments: Beijing has in recent years ramped up aerial and naval deployments around Taiwan, repeatedly confronted Philippine vessels around disputed islands and shoals and sent warships into international waters off the coast of Sydney.
Those actions and the response in Asia will be one point of discussion for military leaders meeting in Singapore starting Friday for the Shangri-La Dialogue. The annual gathering typically includes high-level officials from China and the U.S. This year, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to give a speech Saturday at the event.
While Japan has for decades been wary of foreign military entanglements, in part due to a World War II-era constitution that bars the use of force to settle disputes, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and a Chinese missile barrage over Taiwan in 2022 marked a turning point.
Now Tokyo is doing more to boost defense ties with regional partners such as the Philippines and Australia just as Trump raises questions about the US commitment to historic alliances. The US president has said Japan and South Korea don't pay the US enough for basing American troops in their countries and has been ambiguous about his support for Taiwan if it came under attack.
Chinese Warnings
Japan can't afford that ambiguity. The most southerly of Japan's islands is just 70 miles (113 kilometers) from Taiwan, and Tokyo fears it could be drawn into any conflict over the archipelago that China views as its territory. Beijing regularly warns against Japanese military activity in the region.
After Japanese news outlets reported the transit of a Japanese destroyer through the Taiwan Strait in February, Zhang Xiaogang, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defense, said: 'China respects the navigation rights of all countries under international law, but firmly opposes any country creating trouble in the Taiwan Strait, infringing upon China's sovereignty and security, and sending wrong signals to the 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces.'
Opinion polls show growing support in Japan for a more visible role for the Self-Defense Forces, as the military is known. Yet the scale of the challenge is daunting. While China's actual defense spending is unclear, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates it spent around $314 billion on its military in 2024, about half of all defense spending in Asia and Oceania.
Largely in response, Japan is raising defense spending more rapidly than at any time in recent decades. In 2022, Tokyo pledged ¥43 trillion ($298 billion) to a military build-up that would span five years and lift defense spending to roughly 2 per cent of gross domestic product from just over 1 per cent.
Total defense-related spending this fiscal year is set to reach ¥9.9 trillion, including funds to develop a network of satellites to improve the detection of incoming missiles. Japan has also begun taking delivery of 147 US-built F-35 Lightning II jets, the world's most advanced stealth fighter.
Those F-35s will be equipped with long-range cruise missiles that could hit targets in China from hundreds of miles away. Tokyo is also developing long-range missiles that could be deployed at a string of military bases along its southwest island chain.
So-called 'stand-off' missile capabilities are core to a defense strategy adopted in 2022 to threaten Chinese military bases that could be used against Japan.
The same year, Japan was shaken when China launched missiles over Taiwan that landed in the sea in Japan's exclusive economic zone after a visit to Taipei by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The missiles added to anxieties that Beijing might target Japan and US military bases in the country as part of any attempt to seize Taiwan.
'Bitter Experience'
'The desire to avoid conflict after the bitter experience of World War II made Japan allergic to possessing weapons. More people understand now that simply having them can demoralize and deter the enemy,' said Misa Sakurabayashi, a security analyst based in Tokyo who has advised the government on defense issues.
China says it wants to resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully, but hasn't ruled out the use of force.
In addition to developing its own capabilities, Japan has been working with other Asian democracies to bolster collective deterrence. In 2023, it created a new category of foreign aid called official security assistance to fund military investments, primarily in Asia.
On a visit to Manila earlier this year, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. agreed to begin talks on sharing some basic military supplies.
Last year, the two countries signed a deal to ease border controls to facilitate more military training. The Philippines and Japan are also discussing sharing real-time military intelligence in an arrangement similar to one Japan has with South Korea.
On a visit to Tokyo in March, Hegseth said the US will 're-build' deterrence against China with allies including Japan. He pledged to follow through on Biden administration plans to establish a new military command center in Japan and said he'll deploy more advanced capabilities to the Philippines.
At the same time, Trump has criticised the US-Japan Security Treaty, saying it's a better deal for Tokyo than Washington.
Japan, meanwhile, has made its own calculation that it has to send a clear message to China, according to Kocihi Isobe, a retired lieutenant general in Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force.
'If deterrence fails, the price to pay will be very high,' he said.