S. Korea's Lee to seek stable ties with Japan amid uncertainties

The Mainichi

3 days ago

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- South Korea's newly elected liberal president, Lee Jae Myung, is likely to pursue stable ties with Japan at least early in his tenure, avoiding a hardline stance as the two countries navigate regional security challenges and uncertainties triggered by the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Still, the risk of flareups over issues tied to Japan's colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula lingers, given Lee's past anti-Japan rhetoric and the approaching 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, which could reignite debate over Japan's view of its history.
To strengthen bilateral ties, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba should move quickly to build personal trust with Lee through summit talks, foreign policy experts say, noting that this would also help maintain trilateral cooperation with the United States amid North Korea's nuclear and missile threats and China's regional assertiveness.
Following Tuesday's snap presidential election, Lee, 60, will take over from conservative leader Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached and ousted over his short-lived martial law declaration in December. He will become the first South Korean president from the progressive camp in three years since Moon Jae In.
Under Moon, ties between the two Asian neighbors sank to their lowest point in decades, largely over issues such as wartime labor compensation and the treatment of "comfort women" forced to work in Japanese military brothels.
Japanese experts on South Korean affairs are skeptical that ties will immediately unravel once Lee enters the Blue House, with Junya Nishino, a political science professor at Keio University, citing the "current severe international affairs" that require close collaboration between the two nations.
"Just because an administration is liberal does not mean it is anti-Japanese," he said.
After narrowly losing to Yoon in the 2022 presidential election, Lee grew increasingly critical of Japan, as the conservative president made significant strides to improve frosty bilateral ties, deepened cooperation with key ally the United States and worked to expand three-way collaboration.
Later in 2022, Lee, then leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, called for the cancellation of a joint defense drill involving U.S., South Korean, and Japanese forces, arguing that the exercises would help Japan become a "military power" despite being a "country that ruled South Korea by force" and having "not offered a sincere apology" over historical issues.
In 2023, Lee escalated his criticism of Japan, likening its discharge of treated radioactive wastewater from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant to an "act of terror" reminiscent of its imperialist actions during the Pacific War.
But he toned down such remarks after Yoon's martial law turmoil thrust him into the spotlight as a leading presidential contender.
In foreign policy and national security pledges announced just over a week before the presidential election, Lee acknowledged Japan as "an important partner for cooperation" and pledged to pursue "pragmatic" diplomacy in the national interest.
Nishino said Lee's shift in stance is aimed at presenting himself as a "realistic politician" amid turbulent times while also taking into account public support for improved bilateral ties.
"The return of the Trump administration is creating many challenges to the international situation," he said. "So, he(Lee) should basically be thinking that he would not want to add more to his plate by seeing Japan-South Korea ties deteriorate."
South Korea saw tensions with the United States rise during the first Trump administration from 2017 to 2021, as Seoul was pressured to significantly increase its share of the cost of hosting U.S. forces, reportedly faced threats of a troop withdrawal, and was pushed to renegotiate a bilateral free trade agreement.
Trump has continued his "America First" foreign and trade policy in his nonconsecutive second term, which began in January, imposing higher tariffs on allies, including South Korea and Japan, as part of efforts to extract concessions on trade and other issues.
Trump's commitment to Asia remains hazy, with U.S. media reporting in May that his administration is considering withdrawing thousands of U.S. troops from South Korea. The Pentagon has denied the report, but if carried out, the move could weaken deterrence against North Korea and China.
Meanwhile, the Aug. 15 anniversary of the end of World War II could be a sensitive time for Japan and its Asian neighbors that endured its wartime aggression.
Ishiba, seen as a dove on historical issues between Japan and South Korea, is not expected to issue a Cabinet-approved statement marking the anniversary amid opposition from conservative members of his party. However, any sign of Japan backtracking from its postwar pacifism could provoke a backlash from China and South Korea.
Lee has signaled that he has no intention of making concessions on historical and territorial disputes with Japan, but at the same time pledged to take a "future-oriented" approach to cooperation in social, cultural and economic areas.
Susumu Kohari, an expert on Korean studies, warned that Lee could ramp up his anti-Japan rhetoric if he struggles with a low public support rate.
The University of Shizuoka professor emphasized the importance of promptly arranging summit talks between Ishiba and Lee and maintaining regular leader-level visits, a practice resumed in 2023 after a hiatus of more than a decade.
Kohari also suggested that Japan and South Korea collaborate in responding to Trump's tariff blitz, citing shipbuilding, an area where both countries are strong, as potential leverage in trade talks.
Tadashi Kimiya, an expert in South Korean politics, said that strengthening ties with the United States and Japan, which share values and security concerns, is a "far more realistic" path for Lee, as the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry has made it increasingly difficult for Seoul to pursue balanced diplomacy between the world's two largest economies.
(By Keita Nakamura)