Wall Street's potential winners and losers from Trump's tax bill
June 5 (Reuters) - As President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill heads to the Senate, analysts examine how his broad-ranging policies could turn the fortunes of U.S. companies if the package is enacted as law.
What Trump has dubbed a "big, beautiful bill", narrowly passed the Republican-controlled House on May 22.
The bill seeks to extend tax breaks, set during Trump's first term in 2017 and on track to expire at the end of 2025, for multinational corporations. It is also expected to fulfill many of Trump's populist campaign pledges, including an immigration crackdown and ending some green energy incentives.
The tax breaks are largely expected to be positive for the U.S. stock markets, but some analysts see only a modest upside.
"Since the 2025 tax cuts are primarily an extension of the current tax code, we expect changes to provide only marginal benefits to equity performance," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note last month.
Overall, the bill is expected to add about $2.4 trillion to the $36.2 trillion U.S. debt pile, the Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday.
Here is a list of industries and companies that are likely to be affected by the bill:
Defense companies could see renewed interest from investors as the new bill looks to step up spending on air and missile defense, munitions and border security.
"There should be some benefit there to the defense contractors," said Chris Haverland, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
"We currently rate industrials at a neutral. There'll be some offsets there, but there should be some benefits to the defense area."
Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, named defense contractors RTX (RTX.N), opens new tab and General Dynamics (GD.N), opens new tab as potential beneficiaries. The iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF is trading at all-time highs.
Shares of U.S. solar companies slumped on May 22, as the bill aims to cancel funding for green-energy grant programs, which were established under the Biden administration in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
"If the bill passes, that's going to be a huge negative for renewable (energy stocks)," said Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy and research at wealth management firm Aspiriant.
"We could have a little bit more downside to the renewable energy space, but a lot of it is already priced in."
Companies including First Solar (FSLR.O), opens new tab, Enphase Energy (ENPH.O), opens new tab and Sunrun (RUN.O), opens new tab are all in the red for the year.
The bill includes substantial funding cuts for the U.S. Medicaid program, with fiscal hawks pushing for cuts to partly offset the cost of the bill's tax components.
"Reductions to Medicaid funding also shift the cost to state and local governments that may be burdened by increased health care costs. This may cause notable revenue losses for hospitals, potentially pressuring (the) credit quality of both state and nonprofit health care municipal bonds," Morgan Stanley said.
Shares of major health insurers CVS (CVS.N), opens new tab, Humana (HUM.N), opens new tab, UnitedHealth (UNH.N), opens new tab, Elevance (ELV.N), opens new tab and Cigna (CI.N), opens new tab would be in focus. The S&P 500 managed healthcare index (.SPLRCHMO), opens new tab is down 30.6% year to date.
BofA Global Research said it expects interest rates to remain high if the bill does not meaningfully address deficit reduction, and flagged several companies that could be hurt by higher rates.
SBA Communications (SBAC.O), opens new tab, Equinix (EQIX.O), opens new tab and Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE.N), opens new tab are some of the real estate-linked companies that are at risk, BofA Global Research said.
"Homebuilders need to take a margin hit on the house to increase affordability. So that's a very simple translation of how fiscal stimulus is leading to a negative consequence for the stock market," said Viresh Kanabar, macro strategist - asset allocation at Macro Hive.
The bill also includes legislation to extend or expand Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions that are set to expire at the end of 2025.
The provisions include 100% bonus depreciation for equipment investment, immediate deduction of domestic research and development (R&D) expenses and looser business interest expensing through 2029.
BofA Global Research named a slew of S&P 500 companies with no overseas sales that could benefit from these items, including utility firms Alliant Energy (LNT.O), opens new tab, Ameren Corp (AEE.N), opens new tab and American Electric Power Company (AEP.O), opens new tab.
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