Trump pushes for 15-20% minimum tariff on all EU goods
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Stocks cheer the art of Trump's trade deals after EU agreement
By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Global stocks rose and the euro firmed on Monday after a trade agreement between the United States and the EU lifted sentiment and provided clarity in a pivotal week headlined by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan policy meetings. The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate, a week after agreeing to a trade deal with Japan that lowered tariffs on auto imports. Countries are scrambling to finalise trade deals ahead of the August 1 deadline, with talks between the U.S. and China set for Monday in Stockholm amid expectation of another 90-day extension to the truce between the top two economies. "A 15% tariff on European goods, forced purchases of U.S. energy and military equipment and zero tariff retaliation by Europe, that's not negotiation, that's the art of the deal," said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities. "A big win for the U.S." S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq futures gained 0.5% while the euro firmed across the board, rising against the dollar, sterling and yen. European futures surged nearly 1%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei slipped after touching a one-year high last week while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.27%, just shy of the almost four-year high it touched last week. While the baseline 15% tariff will still be seen by many in Europe as too high, compared with Europe's initial hopes to secure a zero-for-zero tariff deal, it is better than the threatened 30% rate. The deal with the EU provides clarity to companies and averts a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. "Putting it all together, what we've seen with Japan, with the EU, with the talks which are due to be held in Stockholm between the U.S. and China, it really does negate the risk of a prolonged trade war," said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG. "The importance of the August tariff deadline has significantly been diffused." The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for risk sentiment, was 0.12% higher at $0.65725 in early trading, hovering around the near eight-month peak scaled last week. FED, BOJ AWAIT In an action-packed week, investors will watch out for the monetary policy meetings from the Fed and the BOJ as well as the monthly U.S. employment report and earnings reports from megacap companies Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. While the Fed and the BOJ are expected to stand pat on rates, comments from the officials will be crucial for investors to gauge the interest rate path. The trade deal with Japan has opened the door for the BOJ to raise rates again this year. Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to be cautious on any rate cuts as officials seek more data to determine if tariffs are worsening inflation before they ease rates further. But tensions between the White House and the central bank over monetary policy have heightened, with Trump repeatedly denouncing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates. Two of the Fed Board's Trump appointees have articulated reasons for supporting a rate cut this month. ING economists expect December to be the likely starting point for rate cuts, but it "may be a 50 basis point cut, if the evidence on weaker jobs and GDP growth becomes more apparent as we anticipate." "This would be a similar playbook to the Federal Reserve's actions in 2024, where it waited until it was completely comfortable to commit to a lower interest rate environment," they said in a note. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
8 minutes ago
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Oil rises as US-EU deal lifts trade optimism
By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday after the U.S. reached a trade deal with the European Union and may extend a tariff pause with China, reducing concerns that potentially higher levies would limit economic activity and impact fuel demand. Brent crude futures inched up 22 cents, or 0.32%, to $68.66 a barrel by 0035 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $65.38 a barrel, up 22 cents, or 0.34%. The U.S.-European Union trade deal and a possible extension in U.S.-China tariff pause are supporting global financial markets and oil prices, IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said. The United States and the European Union struck a framework trade agreement on Sunday that will impose a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half the threatened rate. The deal averted a bigger trade war between two allies that account for almost one-third of global trade and could crimp fuel demand. Also, senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators will meet in Stockholm on Monday aiming to extend a truce keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay ahead of the August 12 deadline. Oil prices settled on Friday at their lowest in three weeks as global trade concerns and expectations of more oil supply from Venezuela weighed. Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA is getting ready to resume work at its joint ventures under terms similar to Biden-era licenses, once U.S. President Donald Trump reinstates authorisations for its partners to operate and export oil under swaps, company sources said. Though prices were up slightly on Monday, the prospect of OPEC+ further easing supply curbs limited the gains. A market monitoring panel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies is set to meet at 1200 GMT on Monday. It is unlikely to recommend altering existing plans by eight members to raise oil output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, four OPEC+ delegates said last week. Another source said it was too early to say. The producer group is keen to recover market share while summer demand is helping to absorb the extra barrels. JP Morgan analysts said global oil demand rose by 600,000 bpd in July on year, while global oil stocks rose 1.6 million bpd. In the Middle East, Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday they would target any ships belonging to companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationalities, as part of what they called the fourth phase of their military operations against Israel over the Gaza conflict.
Yahoo
8 minutes ago
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Euro rises after US, EU agree to tariff deal
By Rocky Swift TOKYO (Reuters) -The euro gained on Monday following the announcement of a framework trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, the latest in a flurry of deals to avert a global trade war. Meeting in Scotland on Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the deal, which will result in a 15% tariff on EU goods, half what Trump had threatened to impose from August 1. Senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators are due to meet in Stockholm on Monday with an aim to extend a trade truce and prevent steep tariff hikes. Meanwhile, investor attention is shifting towards corporate earnings and central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan. "It could be a positive week, just purely from the fact that now we know the rules of the game, if you like," said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank. "Now that there is more clarity, you would think that not only in the U.S., but around the globe, there will be a little bit more willingness to look at investment, to look at expansions, and to look at where the opportunities are," he said on a NAB podcast. The euro stood at $1.1763, up 0.2% so far in Asia. The common currency rose 0.2% to 173.78 yen. Trump said the EU plans to invest some $600 billion in the U.S. and dramatically increase its purchases of American energy and military equipment. The pact is similar to one forged with Tokyo negotiators last week that will see Japan investing some $550 billion in the U.S. and a 15% tariff imposed on its cars and other imports. The baseline 15% tariff will still be seen by many in Europe as too high, compared with Europe's initial hopes to secure a zero-for-zero tariff deal. China is facing an August 12 deadline to reach a durable trade pact with the U.S. No breakthrough is expected in the U.S. and China talks in Stockholm, but analysts said another 90-day extension of a trade truce struck in mid-May was likely. The U.S. dollar advanced on Friday, bolstered by solid economic data that suggested the Federal Reserve could take its time in resuming interest rate cuts. Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at this week's policy meetings, but traders are focusing on the subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next moves. The dollar was little changed at 147.68 yen. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against major peers, fell 0.1% to 97.534. Sterling traded at $1.34385, down almost 0.1%. The Australian dollar fetched $0.6576, up 0.2%, while New Zealand's kiwi dollar was flat at $0.6019. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
