Why there is still hope after failed Istanbul talks
It could have been a historic day, one of the most consequential meetings since Winston Churchill, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Joseph Stalin met at Yalta in February 1945.
Had Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky got together around the banqueting table at Istanbul's grand Dolmabahce Palace, it is quite possible that they might have reshaped the fate of Europe.
Instead it was a day of farce and confusion, one in which none of the three leaders appeared in Istanbul and the world's press played a prolonged game of 'Where's Vladimir?'
Mr Zelensky at least was in the right country and had lunch in Ankara with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president whose moment of diplomatic glory as the host of the talks was snatched away.
Putin, it turned out, was meeting a banker in Moscow and dealing with 'non-public matters'. The Kremlin said he had a 'calm' day, although it was later reported he had sacked Gen Oleg Salyukov, the chief of his military's land forces.
Mr Trump, who had suggested he would go to Istanbul if Putin went, continued his tour of the Middle East instead, and said he would probably fly back to Washington on Friday, potentially ruling out a stop in Istanbul.
Despite the failure of any talks whatsoever to get underway on Thursday – not even between the acolytes that the Russian president sent to Istanbul and the Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov, Mr Zelensky's defence minister – European officials still believe that the conflict is reaching a decisive juncture.
However, that is unlikely to be because they expect an imminent breakthrough when and if the talks get underway in Istanbul.
Granted, these would be the first direct negotiations between the two sides in nearly three years.
But so low-level is the Russian delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky, the former culture minister, that it is unlikely to have the mandate to make any meaningful decisions or concessions. Mr Zelensky derided it as purely 'decorative'.
In fact, the Kremlin has already made it clear that the Russian negotiators would stick to the Istanbul Communiqué issued after aborted talks in the same city three years ago.
This required Ukraine to abandon its Nato ambitions, accept a humiliating neutrality, disarm almost entirely and maintain an army incapable of defending the country. In exchange, Ukraine would receive security guarantees from the international community over which Russia would have a veto. Kyiv rejected the offer, seeing it as a blueprint for capitulation.
So far every indication is that Russia will stick to its maximalist positions and Ukraine will refuse to acquiesce.
The real reason European diplomats believe a significant moment is in the offing is the assumption that Mr Trump must finally be losing patience with Putin.
After all, the Russian leader skipped the very talks he himself proposed after rejecting the US president's calls for a 30-day ceasefire. Mr Trump had personally offered to come with Putin to Istanbul and hold his hand.
Even Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president, urged his friend to go, saying: 'Comrade Putin, go to Istanbul and negotiate, dammit.'
European officials reckon that Putin's obstinacy must surely force Mr Trump to agree that there is no alternative but to punish Russia with the most prohibitive sanctions package yet.
Lindsey Graham, the US Senator and a close ally of Mr Trump who joined Nato ministers in Turkey on Thursday, has a US sanctions bill ready to go that would impose 500 per cent tariffs on countries that import Russian oil. Such secondary sanctions could cripple the Russian economy and prove a game changer.
The only trouble is that even Putin's latest snub does not appear to have irked the US president at all. Speaking to journalists aboard Air Force One as he flew into the United Arab Emirates on Thursday evening, he notably declined to threaten the Russian president, reprimand him or even express his dismay at his no-show in Istanbul.
'I'm not disappointed,' he said. 'Why would I be disappointed?'
It is possible that the US president may change his tune in the coming days – but predicting his behaviour and expecting him to take the most rational course of action is an exercise in folly. Whether European leaders have taken that on board is not yet clear.
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