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Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Why there is still hope after failed Istanbul talks
It could have been a historic day, one of the most consequential meetings since Winston Churchill, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Joseph Stalin met at Yalta in February 1945. Had Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky got together around the banqueting table at Istanbul's grand Dolmabahce Palace, it is quite possible that they might have reshaped the fate of Europe. Instead it was a day of farce and confusion, one in which none of the three leaders appeared in Istanbul and the world's press played a prolonged game of 'Where's Vladimir?' Mr Zelensky at least was in the right country and had lunch in Ankara with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president whose moment of diplomatic glory as the host of the talks was snatched away. Putin, it turned out, was meeting a banker in Moscow and dealing with 'non-public matters'. The Kremlin said he had a 'calm' day, although it was later reported he had sacked Gen Oleg Salyukov, the chief of his military's land forces. Mr Trump, who had suggested he would go to Istanbul if Putin went, continued his tour of the Middle East instead, and said he would probably fly back to Washington on Friday, potentially ruling out a stop in Istanbul. Despite the failure of any talks whatsoever to get underway on Thursday – not even between the acolytes that the Russian president sent to Istanbul and the Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov, Mr Zelensky's defence minister – European officials still believe that the conflict is reaching a decisive juncture. However, that is unlikely to be because they expect an imminent breakthrough when and if the talks get underway in Istanbul. Granted, these would be the first direct negotiations between the two sides in nearly three years. But so low-level is the Russian delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky, the former culture minister, that it is unlikely to have the mandate to make any meaningful decisions or concessions. Mr Zelensky derided it as purely 'decorative'. In fact, the Kremlin has already made it clear that the Russian negotiators would stick to the Istanbul Communiqué issued after aborted talks in the same city three years ago. This required Ukraine to abandon its Nato ambitions, accept a humiliating neutrality, disarm almost entirely and maintain an army incapable of defending the country. In exchange, Ukraine would receive security guarantees from the international community over which Russia would have a veto. Kyiv rejected the offer, seeing it as a blueprint for capitulation. So far every indication is that Russia will stick to its maximalist positions and Ukraine will refuse to acquiesce. The real reason European diplomats believe a significant moment is in the offing is the assumption that Mr Trump must finally be losing patience with Putin. After all, the Russian leader skipped the very talks he himself proposed after rejecting the US president's calls for a 30-day ceasefire. Mr Trump had personally offered to come with Putin to Istanbul and hold his hand. Even Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president, urged his friend to go, saying: 'Comrade Putin, go to Istanbul and negotiate, dammit.' European officials reckon that Putin's obstinacy must surely force Mr Trump to agree that there is no alternative but to punish Russia with the most prohibitive sanctions package yet. Lindsey Graham, the US Senator and a close ally of Mr Trump who joined Nato ministers in Turkey on Thursday, has a US sanctions bill ready to go that would impose 500 per cent tariffs on countries that import Russian oil. Such secondary sanctions could cripple the Russian economy and prove a game changer. The only trouble is that even Putin's latest snub does not appear to have irked the US president at all. Speaking to journalists aboard Air Force One as he flew into the United Arab Emirates on Thursday evening, he notably declined to threaten the Russian president, reprimand him or even express his dismay at his no-show in Istanbul. 'I'm not disappointed,' he said. 'Why would I be disappointed?' It is possible that the US president may change his tune in the coming days – but predicting his behaviour and expecting him to take the most rational course of action is an exercise in folly. Whether European leaders have taken that on board is not yet clear. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Ukraine-Russia talks to open in Istanbul without Putin, Kremlin confirms
LONDON -- Ukrainian and Russian representatives will meet in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday, for their first meeting since the opening weeks of Moscow's 3-year-old invasion of its neighbor. Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend Thursday's talks, despite an invitation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders. The return to Istanbul is symbolic, the historic Turkish city having played host to arguably the most successful bursts of diplomacy in three years of devastating warfare. It was there in March 2022 that Ukrainian and Russian negotiators produced the Istanbul Communiqué -- the framework of a possible peace agreement to end Russia's nascent full-scale invasion. Its tradeoff was essentially one of Ukraine accepting permanent neutrality -- meaning forever abandoning any hope of becoming a member of NATO -- in exchange for ironclad security guarantees. The subsequent intensification of the war and emerging evidence of alleged Russian war crimes -- as well as suspicions of sabotage operations against peace talks participants -- fatally undermined those early peace efforts. Later, Istanbul was also the hub of the Black Sea Grain Initiative that ran from 2022 to 2023, which with the support of Turkey and the United Nations temporarily allowed for the safe export of grain and other agricultural goods from Ukrainian and Russian ports through the Black Sea -- which had by then become a key theater of the fighting -- to the rest of the world. Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky -- who led talks in 2022 -- will lead the Russian delegation. Medinsky will be joined by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia's military intelligence agency. Zelenskyy and Putin last met in person in France in 2019 for a session of the Normandy Format, a peace forum convened with France and Germany in a bid to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The fighting there was touched off by Russia's annexation of Crimea and subsequent fomentation of a separatist revolt against Kyiv in the Donbas region. Moscow's 2022 full-scale invasion was a continuation of that initial cross-border aggression, with Russian columns surging out of occupied Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk to seize more territory. Zelenskyy said at a news conference this week he would not meet any other Russian representative, because "everything in Russia depends" on the president. "I will go to Turkey and I'm ready to meet Putin," Zelenskyy said. Zelenskyy is expected to be in the Turkish capital Ankara on Thursday to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. MORE: Ukraine-Russia peace talks 'chess' match pits Zelenskyy against Putin President Donald Trump -- who since returning to office has been seeking a ceasefire and eventual peace deal -- suggested this week that he hoped for progress at Thursday's talks. "I think we're having some pretty good news coming out of there today and maybe tomorrow and maybe Friday," Trump said upon arrival in Qatar on Wednesday. The president even hinted he might even travel to Istanbul, though did not say whether he expected Putin to do the same. "Well I don't know if he's showing up," Trump said of his Russian counterpart. "He would like me to be there, and that's a possibility. If we could end the war, I'd be thinking about that," Trump added. The U.S. delegation to Turkey includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg. Speaking at a gathering of NATO foreign ministers in Istanbul on Thursday, Rubio said of his hopes for the upcoming Ukraine-Russia talks, "We'll see what happens over the next couple of days." "I will say this, and I'll repeat it, that there is no military solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Rubio continued. "This war is going to end not through a military solution, but through a diplomatic one, and the sooner an agreement can be reached on ending this war, the less people, less people will die and the less destruction there will be." Trump, Rubio said, "is interested in building things, not destroying. He wants economies and countries focused on building things, making things, providing opportunity and prosperity for its people, and he's against all the things that keep that from happening, like wars, like terrorism and all the instability that comes with that." Putin proposed the talks last weekend, in response to Ukraine's demand -- backed by the leaders of France, Germany, the U.K. and Poland during a joint visit to Kyiv -- for a full 30-day ceasefire during which time peace talks could proceed. Trump agreed to the plan by phone, the European leaders said. But Trump then also backed Putin's offer to restart the talks that collapsed in 2022. Trump even publicly pressed Zelenskyy to "immediately" agree to the meeting. Despite the significance of renewed direct Ukraine-Russia talks, Oleg Ignatov -- the International Crisis Group's senior Russia analyst -- told ABC News he had low expectations of an immediate breakthrough. "The Russians clearly say that they're interested in keeping military and diplomatic pressure on Ukraine," he said. "They clearly say that there will be long negotiations and Ukraine should be prepared for this." While Trump agitates for a deal he can sell as a political win, Kyiv and Moscow are maneuvering to avoid blame for the failure of peace talks -- and dodge Trump's subsequent wrath. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Rubio on Wednesday in Istanbul. "I reaffirmed Ukraine's strong and consistent commitment to President Trump's peace efforts and thanked the United States for its involvement," the former wrote om X. "We are ready to advance our cooperation in a constructive and mutually beneficial manner," he added. "It is critical that Russia reciprocate Ukraine's constructive steps. So far, it has not. Moscow must understand that rejecting peace comes at a cost." Ukraine-Russia talks to open in Istanbul without Putin, Kremlin confirms originally appeared on
15-05-2025
- Politics
Ukraine-Russia talks to open in Istanbul without Putin, Kremlin confirms
LONDON -- Ukrainian and Russian representatives will meet in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday, for their first meeting since the opening weeks of Moscow's 3-year-old invasion of its neighbor. Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend Thursday's talks, despite an invitation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders. The return to Istanbul is symbolic, the historic Turkish city having played host to arguably the most successful bursts of diplomacy in three years of devastating warfare. It was there in March 2022 that Ukrainian and Russian negotiators produced the Istanbul Communiqué -- the framework of a possible peace agreement to end Russia's nascent full-scale invasion. Its tradeoff was essentially one of Ukraine accepting permanent neutrality -- meaning forever abandoning any hope of becoming a member of NATO -- in exchange for ironclad security guarantees. The subsequent intensification of the war and emerging evidence of alleged Russian war crimes -- as well as suspicions of sabotage operations against peace talks participants -- fatally undermined those early peace efforts. Later, Istanbul was also the hub of the Black Sea Grain Initiative that ran from 2022 to 2023, which with the support of Turkey and the United Nations temporarily allowed for the safe export of grain and other agricultural goods from Ukrainian and Russian ports through the Black Sea -- which had by then become a key theater of the fighting -- to the rest of the world. Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky -- who led talks in 2022 -- will lead the Russian delegation. Medinsky will be joined by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia's military intelligence agency. Zelenskyy and Putin last met in person in France in 2019 for a session of the Normandy Format, a peace forum convened with France and Germany in a bid to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The fighting there was touched off by Russia's annexation of Crimea and subsequent fomentation of a separatist revolt against Kyiv in the Donbas region. Moscow's 2022 full-scale invasion was a continuation of that initial cross-border aggression, with Russian columns surging out of occupied Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk to seize more territory. Zelenskyy said at a news conference this week he would not meet any other Russian representative, because "everything in Russia depends" on the president. "I will go to Turkey and I'm ready to meet Putin," Zelenskyy said. Zelenskyy is expected to be in the Turkish capital Ankara on Thursday to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. President Donald Trump -- who since returning to office has been seeking a ceasefire and eventual peace deal -- suggested this week that he hoped for progress at Thursday's talks. "I think we're having some pretty good news coming out of there today and maybe tomorrow and maybe Friday," Trump said upon arrival in Qatar on Wednesday. The president even hinted he might even travel to Istanbul, though did not say whether he expected Putin to do the same. "Well I don't know if he's showing up," Trump said of his Russian counterpart. "He would like me to be there, and that's a possibility. If we could end the war, I'd be thinking about that," Trump added. The U.S. delegation to Turkey includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg. Speaking at a gathering of NATO foreign ministers in Istanbul on Thursday, Rubio said of his hopes for the upcoming Ukraine-Russia talks, "We'll see what happens over the next couple of days." "I will say this, and I'll repeat it, that there is no military solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Rubio continued. "This war is going to end not through a military solution, but through a diplomatic one, and the sooner an agreement can be reached on ending this war, the less people, less people will die and the less destruction there will be." Trump, Rubio said, "is interested in building things, not destroying. He wants economies and countries focused on building things, making things, providing opportunity and prosperity for its people, and he's against all the things that keep that from happening, like wars, like terrorism and all the instability that comes with that." Putin proposed the talks last weekend, in response to Ukraine's demand -- backed by the leaders of France, Germany, the U.K. and Poland during a joint visit to Kyiv -- for a full 30-day ceasefire during which time peace talks could proceed. Trump agreed to the plan by phone, the European leaders said. But Trump then also backed Putin's offer to restart the talks that collapsed in 2022. Trump even publicly pressed Zelenskyy to "immediately" agree to the meeting. Despite the significance of renewed direct Ukraine-Russia talks, Oleg Ignatov -- the International Crisis Group's senior Russia analyst -- told ABC News he had low expectations of an immediate breakthrough. "The Russians clearly say that they're interested in keeping military and diplomatic pressure on Ukraine," he said. "They clearly say that there will be long negotiations and Ukraine should be prepared for this." While Trump agitates for a deal he can sell as a political win, Kyiv and Moscow are maneuvering to avoid blame for the failure of peace talks -- and dodge Trump's subsequent wrath. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Rubio on Wednesday in Istanbul. "I reaffirmed Ukraine's strong and consistent commitment to President Trump's peace efforts and thanked the United States for its involvement," the former wrote om X. "We are ready to advance our cooperation in a constructive and mutually beneficial manner," he added. "It is critical that Russia reciprocate Ukraine's constructive steps. So far, it has not. Moscow must understand that rejecting peace comes at a cost."
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Why Putin isn't ready to lay down his arms
A game of brinkmanship is afoot. On Thursday, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, will be seated at a negotiating table in Istanbul. The question is whether Vladimir Putin will be opposite him. After a weekend of frantic diplomacy, in which Sir Keir Starmer joined the leaders of France, Germany and Poland in Kyiv, the Russian president finally made his move. He did not, however, yield to European demands for an immediate 30-day ceasefire or face yet more sanctions. Instead, he offered a counter-proposal: direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey – but no silencing of the guns. In the capitals of Europe there are serious, if slender, hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough to end the war in Ukraine. But make no mistake, this was not a genuine concession from Putin; it was a manoeuvre – a manoeuvre that, for the moment, has found favour in the White House. It is after all, on both sides, a throwback to the positions held in the early months of the full-scale war in 2022. Back then, Putin was happy to send his minions to Turkey to discuss the terms under which Ukraine would surrender. A document known as the Istanbul Communiqué was drafted, under which Ukraine would accept permanent neutrality, abandon its Nato ambitions and accept drastic cuts to the size of its armed forces. In exchange Kyiv would be offered security assurances by the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: Britain, France, the US, Russia and China. Recalling how little the assurances made by Budapest Memorandum of 1994 counted for, Kyiv politely declined. Under the memorandum, signed with Britain, Russia and the US, Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons on the understanding that its borders would be inviolable. Kremlin aides have made it clear that Russia expects the previously rejected Istanbul Communiqué to be the basis of new talks. In addition, negotiations would also have to 'take account of the real situation' on the battlefield, according to Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin official – an indication of the territorial losses Moscow expects Kyiv to suck up. In other words, the fare offered up by Putin is considerably less appetising than it was in 2022, something that is not lost on European leaders. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, accused the Russian leader of stalling, saying 'he wants to buy time.' Friedrich Merz, the new German chancellor, stuck to the original position advanced by Donald Trump of a ceasefire first and then talks. 'The guns must first fall silent before talks can begin,' he said. If the Europeans hoped to present a united Western front, however, Mr Trump had other ideas. The US president seemed all too happy to accept Putin's implied rejection of his ceasefire proposal, gave immediate support to his counter-proposal of talks and then, once again, applied pressure on Zelensky to comply 'IMMEDIATELY', as he wrote on his Truth Social platform. The Ukrainian leader duly obliged. Ever since his testy meeting with Mr Trump at the White House in February, Mr Zelensky has promptly jumped through every hoop the US president has placed before him in the hope of making it clear that Russia is the obstacle to peace. Mr Zelensky's acquiescence is strategic in other ways — and is also a reversion to the position he held in the early stages of the war when he made repeated calls for direct talks with Putin. The Russian leader is in an awkward position. Believing he has the upper hand on the battlefield, he has little real desire to stop fighting even if he is willing to discuss the terms of Ukraine's capitulation. He is therefore perfectly happy to send underlings to Istanbul in order to dictate what would essentially be surrender terms to the Ukrainians. If they refused, it would be no great loss. He could be reasonably confident that Russia would escape serious US censure should talks collapse. After all, Mr Trump has so far only taken substantive action against Ukraine, briefly freezing intelligence sharing and arms shipments. On the other hand, the odd threat of sanctions aside, the Trump administration has aligned with Russia on a key United Nations vote, resumed broader diplomatic ties with Russia and made it clear that he is eager to pursue commercial deals with the Kremlin. But face-to-face talks with Mr Zelensky are quite a different matter. Not only would it create an impression of equality between the two, it would be hard for Putin to maintain his argument that his Ukrainian counterpart is an illegitimate, Nazi-coddling dictator. On top of which, direct talks would require genuinely substantive negotiations: two leaders do not generally sit down to talk if one is demanding the other's unconditional surrender. There is no doubt that serious back-channel bargaining is under way. Claims from European diplomats that the coming days could be decisive may turn out to have something to them. If Putin were to turn up in Istanbul, hopes for a deal would certainly rise significantly. Or it could all be wishful thinking. So far, Putin has secured greater concessions from the US than he would once have dreamt possible – all without actually having to do anything. The unanswered question is why he would change tack now. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
