Giro d'Italia Stage 20 preview: Penultimate-day Alpine showdown set to decide maglia rosa

Independent

a day ago

After a thrilling and often surprising three weeks, the Giro d'Italia all comes down to this: 205km of Alpine terrain to settle the destiny of the maglia rosa. The accumulated fatigue of three weeks' racing and several difficult Alpine days could yet see the GC favourites crumble, and this Giro has proved there's always a surprise, a twist and turn in store.
The last of five tough outings in the mountains in this final week, stage 20 encompasses 4,500m of altitude gain, the majority of it on the showpiece climb of the Colle delle Finestre.
Unlike stage 19's constant climbing and descending, stage 20 begins with a lumpy first 100km with the serious climbing much closer to the finish line. Mads Pedersen 's points jersey is mathematically secure but we could still see the Dane jump into the early breakaway to mop up points at the day's first intermediate sprints, at Rocca Canavese, which comes just before the first categorised climb, 69km in at Corio. It's only a cat-four but from there the road pitches uphill again steadily until the start of the category two Colle del Lys: 13.7km, it's a long one averaging 4.3% but hitting 12% at its toughest points.
There's time to recover on the descent and long valley that follows, but looming large is the Finestre: 2,178m high, nearly 19km at an average of 9.2%, an hour-long effort on one of the most difficult climbs in the Alps. This will either make or break each of the GC contenders: it's where Simon Yates cracked in 2018 and where Chris Froome attacked to win his final (as of now) Grand Tour, so the Visma-Lease a Bike rider will have less than fond memories of its hideous slopes. It's a classic hairpin-heavy climb, which will only add to the difficulty and energy required to keep position.
The Red Bull kilometre with its bonus seconds is around four kilometres from the top, at Bergerie le Casette, and could be crucial for the final standings. Once over the top there's only 28km left to race, including a cat-three ascent to Sestriere, a summit finish to decide the GC before tomorrow's sprint stage.
Route map and profile
Start time
Set your alarms for an early start: stage 20 kicks off at 10.45am local time (9.45am BST) and is set to conclude at 4.15pm local time (3.15pm BST).
Prediction
It all comes down to this. Who of the GC favourites will rise to the occasion, and who will crumble? Richard Carapaz 's attacking flair has livened up the final week and the Ecuadorian looks in his best form since he won this race in 2019, so he could be in line for another stage win and to perhaps nab the maglia rosa in the process.
Derek Gee has also been biding his time and steadily working his way up the standings, while Giulio Pellizzari has climbed incredibly and could add to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's unexpectedly positive final week with a late stage win to add to Nico Denz's on stage 18.
But for pure theatre, nothing could beat Simon Yates redeeming himself on the Finestre this year. It would provide a fitting end to what has been an excellent Giro for the Visma-Lease a Bike rider, who had looked superb on nearly all the mountain stages so far until wobbling yesterday. Could he yet pinch another Grand Tour crown?