John Ivison: The first Carney spending numbers are out, and they're as bad as Trudeau's
Politics is not a zero-sum game where one person's win is automatically another's loss. An economy is not a conserved system, so, in theory, it is possible that a government could reduce taxes, increase spending and balance budgets (if, for example, revenues rise).
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But it is a theory that is as rare in real life as white peacocks.
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The Carney government is in the process of legislating a $5-billion-a-year middle-class tax cut, while planning to increase spending on things like the military and housing, and at the same time promising to balance the operating budget in three years.
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Yet, the Main Estimates, the government's spending plan that was released on Tuesday at the same time as the throne speech, shows no signs of the restraint that will be needed if the government is to meet that last target.
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This is the first evidence of concrete spending plans since the election and it seems the bureaucracy did not get the memo about the need for fiscal rigour.
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The prime minister was critical of his predecessor's fondness for distributing cash, saying the Trudeau government spent too much and invested too little. Mark Carney said his government will limit operating-expense increases to two per cent a year, down from nine per cent a year under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, while preserving transfers to provinces and individuals.
The Main Estimates suggest that message of restraint fell on deaf ears in Ottawa: total budgeted spending is scheduled to rise 7.75 per cent to $486.9 billion this fiscal year across 130 federal organizations (compared to last year's Main Estimates). The government will ask Parliament to vote on $222.9 billion of spending measures, a 14 per cent increase on last year's estimates.
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The most egregious spending appears to be on consultants. The estimates reveal that budgetary expenditure by 'standard object' — in this case, 'professional and special services' — are set to hit $26 billion this year, if departments are granted the approvals they are seeking (the estimates are an 'up to' amount; departments could spend less).
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These numbers require numerous caveats. They include operating and capital spending, as well as transfer payments and contributions to Crown corporations. To add some perspective, payments to seniors (Old Age Security and the Guaranteed Income Supplement) swallow up $86 billion of that number. Some people have suggested the only way to make a meaningful dent in the spending picture is to means test OAS, but Carney has already ring-fenced all transfers.
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It should also be pointed out that the Main Estimates are not the whole picture. There will be additional 'supplementary estimates' over the course of the year that will likely increase spending further in response to events.
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