Defining Success For Ohio State, Michigan and Other Top Programs in 2025

Fox News

2 days ago

Let's face it, your team likely isn't going to win the national championship this season, and that's probably OK for many programs.
Success can be defined in a multitude of ways for each team entering the 2025 college football season. Obviously, some teams have higher expectations than others, with a nine-win season at one place bringing a lot more joy than a 10-win season somewhere else. For some other places, the expectation might be to play in the final game of the college football season.
So, let's define what a successful season will be for a handful of teams in 2025.
The Crimson Tide have never missed the CFP in back-to-back seasons, and I'm sure Kalen DeBoer doesn't want that on his record. This team has to go to the CFP. Not only that, but I think Alabama probably has to win a game in the CFP, too.
Ryan Grubb reuniting with DeBoer is huge. DeBoer has had plenty of success with Grubb on his staff in the past, including when he was at Washington.
This is a program that was at the pinnacle of the sport. We've never seen anyone do what Nick Saban did at Alabama, putting up sustained success that we'll never see again. We all think DeBoer is a very good coach, but the pressure is mounting.
Last year was clearly a bump in the road in Ann Arbor. In Year 2 under Sherrone Moore, expectations will be higher. Maybe not as high as they are in Alabama, but this fan base is used to being in the top echelon. You can't be a top program and not expect to be in the CFP mix.
If Michigan is in the CFP mix, I think many would agree that Moore would be building toward something in Ann Arbor. He has a young quarterback in Bryce Underwood to build around, which is promising. If Michigan is 9-3 or 10-2 at the end of the regular season, that would be a good sign and last year will be quickly forgotten.
It's very simple, and I've talked about this with Ryan Day a lot: You need to win every game if you're a part of the Ohio State program. But let's also be honest here, after getting over that hump last year and having to replace 14 NFL Draft picks, the bar can be lowered just a little bit. I don't know if the Buckeyes have to make the national championship game this year.
Now, Day would disagree with me and say that he still expects to win every game. But if Ohio State reaches the final four or plays for a Big Ten title, it would show that it's not going anywhere after last season. If it can do that, and Julian Sayin potentially develops at quarterback, Ohio State would be building toward plenty of positive momentum going into 2026, when it will still have Jeremiah Smith.
Oh, and Ohio State has to beat Michigan. You can't take another loss to the Team Up North. I've watched last year's game back plenty of times and I'm still in disbelief.
We no longer have to ask if Texas is back. The Longhorns are back and I think they're the best team in the SEC. It's great for them that they've made the semis in back-to-back years, but that means they can't lose in a round earlier than that or even lose in the semis for a third straight year. They have to go play for the title.
When Arch Manning committed to Texas, the goal and expectation were to eventually win a title. Manning is just one of the many reasons, though, why I'm bullish on Texas entering the year. Texas has an incredible defense, with stars at all three levels.
Steve Sarkisian has a team that can win a national championship. It's time for him to play for one, at the very least.
There's not just a bar that LSU has to measure itself against, but it also has to compare its success to Notre Dame's. The fact that the team Brian Kelly left just played for a national championship only ratchets up the pressure for him in Baton Rouge.
Let's go back in time. Dan Hawkins did an incredible job at Boise State, but he struggled at Colorado. At the same time, Chris Peterson helped Boise State continue to have success, even elevating the program. It made everyone think that Peterson was the one responsible for Boise State's climb.
I'm not saying it's the same thing with Kelly and Marcus Freeman, but people will think that way. It didn't help that Kelly got $100 million and felt LSU had a higher ceiling than Notre Dame. If Notre Dame is going to outperform LSU, though, is the ceiling LSU or is it Brian Kelly?
Georgia's an interesting one, isn't it? After winning back-to-back titles, a lot of us think that Georgia is clearly one of the four best teams in college football. I'm not sure if that's still true. I didn't have the Bulldogs in the top four of my preseason top 25.
Here's an interesting thought exercise: What if Georgia loses in the SEC Championship Game and falls in the quarterfinals of the CFP in 2025? That would mark the third straight year that it didn't reach the CFP semis, which would mean that there would be a cycle of elite recruits who played through their minimum eligibility in college football without seeing Georgia play in the final four.
Georgia feels like it's at the top of the upper echelon of teams in the country. In order to feel valid in that belief, you have to make it to the CFP semis at least once in a three-year span. If you do that, then you can win the national championship. Those are spots reserved for elite programs.
This is a big year for Kirby Smart. He's trying to replace a veteran quarterback and other spots on the roster, but the schedule is favorable for Georgia.
In a lot of ways, last season was a breakout year for James Franklin's program. Yet, it still failed to do the things we want to see Penn State do. We want to see this team win a matchup game, where it beats a team that has similar or superior talent. Penn State has majored in beating the teams it's supposed to beat.
Now, it's time to get over the hump. Penn State played in the semis last year. This year, it needs to reach the national championship game. Whether Penn State wins that game or not is obviously anyone's guess, but it needs to beat a blue blood or win a matchup game in order to get there.
Penn State will have chances to do that in the regular season, and possibly the Big Ten Championship Game. Even then, though, there's a scenario where Penn State beats Oregon at home early in the year before losing at Ohio State later on that could cause people to still doubt it.
The Nittany Lions have all of those returning guys, like Drew Allar and Nicholas Singleton, as well. They really should get to the national championship game.
I think most people would say USC has been a disappointment since Lincoln Riley got there in 2022. The Trojans got worse record-wise each season and they lost a lot in the portal this offseason.
However, there's a lot of optimism around that program. I'm buying a little bit of it. I had a small conversation with Lincoln Riley recently and he said his team is going to be good.
Take that for what it's worth, obviously, but it had a bunch of close losses last year and it's building momentum toward 2026 with the No. 1 recruiting class (via 247 Sports) for next year. So, Riley might not need to have a tremendous season for us to think USC is trending in the right direction. Still, USC needs to take a step forward.
If you gave me USC winning nine games in 2025, I would be buying its stock moving forward, all things considered. And maybe if USC reaches nine wins, it's playing in a game with CFP implications.
Oregon is starting to feel like a perennial power in the sport. But to really be a perennial power, it needs to make the final four. That means taking a step forward from last year, regardless of whether it gets a bye in the CFP.
It feels like this is where Oregon belongs. Dan Lanning is an elite coach and it feels like the Ducks are a program that's going to recruit the players that put them in this position. We want to see progress, though.
I think people would say the Hurricanes had a successful year last year until the very end. That Syracuse game had to feel like a kick in the teeth after their 9-0 start.
Miami lost Cam Ward, but it had an impressive offseason. The Hurricanes brought in Carson Beck, built a good offensive line and hired a defensive coordinator I really like. So, Miami has to go to the CFP.
Mario Cristobal has put Miami in the conversation for almost every elite recruit in the country. However, many of those recruits pick other places because those places have proven they can go further than Miami. The Hurricanes have never made the CFP and that needs to change.
Miami also plays in a relatively weak ACC. It should get to 10 or 11 wins because of that. If it doesn't get there, then you have to call into question if it's going to work with Cristobal. Eventually, he has to build some sort of track record.
We don't usually talk about Texas Tech, but Joey McGuire has a fascinating season in front of him. The Red Raiders infused a ton of talent onto this roster with a lot of cash over the offseason, getting the second-best transfer portal class in the nation (per 247 Sports). Behren Morton returns at quarterback for Texas Tech, and it's in a conference where if you improve just a little bit, you'll take a substantial step forward. That's what happened with Colorado last season, going from four to nine wins.
Texas Tech can do something similar if it can just get a little better defensively. If it can, it'll probably be in the mix to win the Big 12 title, thus putting it in the mix for the CFP. When you consider how many resources have been put into the program and how wide open the Big 12 is, Texas Tech needs to be in the CFP mix. If you can't be in the mix this year, then when is it going to happen? I think Texas Tech can be in that mix, though.
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports' lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast "The Joel Klatt Show." Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the "Joel Klatt Show" on YouTube.
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