
Fed's Schmid says there is time to study tariff effects before rate cuts
WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve has time to study the effect of rising import tariffs on prices and economic growth before deciding on further interest rate cuts, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Tuesday.
"The current posture of monetary policy, which has been characterized as 'wait-and-see,' is appropriate," Schmid said in remarks prepared for delivery to an agricultural summit in Nebraska.
"The resilience of the economy gives us the time to observe how prices and the economy develop," before changing the benchmark policy rate, said Schmid, a voter this year on the Fed's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which next meets on July 29-30.
The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady in a range from 4.25% to 4.5% since December, despite calls from President Donald Trump for rate cuts.
Fed officials in recent projections anticipate two rate cuts by the end of the year, but have highlighted uncertainty around trade policy and in general expect to see slower growth, higher unemployment and higher inflation in coming months.
Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, and "contacts almost uniformly expect increased tariffs to push up prices and to weigh on activity," Schmid said, adding it seemed "likely" the Fed's inflation and job goals "will come into conflict."
But "there is far less clarity on when and by how much," said Schmid, an argument for leaving interest rates unchanged until the economy's direction is clearer.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Reuters
26 minutes ago
- Reuters
OpenAI CEO Altman says he has spoken with Microsoft CEO Nadella, NYT reports
June 24 (Reuters) - OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman had a call with Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab CEO Satya Nadella on Monday and discussed their future working partnership, Altman said in a New York Times podcast on Tuesday. Altman also said that he had productive talks with U.S. President Donald Trump on artificial intelligence and credited him with understanding the geopolitical and economic importance of the technology.


Telegraph
an hour ago
- Telegraph
Brace yourselves homeowners, there's no chance of another rate cut this year
Markets – from stocks to bonds, and even oil – are exhausted. Seemingly inured to chaos, these bellwethers of global sentiment are consistently pricing in the idea that everything will work out in the end. Covid, inflation, Ukraine, mounting and unsustainable government debt, things keep going wrong and nobody is willing to accept it until they have no other choice. The patently obvious inflation spike of 2022 was declared 'transitory' until it simply couldn't be any more, central banks seemingly fearful to acknowledge it lest they accidentally manifest it. Donald Trump is currently learning that wishing something to be the case does not make it so. On Monday night he declared a ceasefire had been agreed between Israel and Iran, and celebrated the end of 'The 12 Day War'. By the time he woke up on Tuesday the two nations had already violated it. At 12:38, on our live coverage of the situation, we posted: Trump says Israel won't attack Iran. At 12:44, the blog read: Reports of explosions in Tehran. So frustrated by his inability to mend relations between Israel and Iran over just a few days, Trump complained to reporters on the White House lawn that the pair 'don't know what the f--- they're doing', showing a level of frustration I certainly can't remember from a serving president at least publicly. Not that he's offering much clarity himself – he has now reneged on his threat of regime change two days after suggesting it was almost inevitable. Around a fifth of the world's oil and gas moves through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran's parliament has voted to block, but prices have fallen dramatically as investors bet it won't happen. At home, a raft of increased costs have just hit employers from National Insurance to minimum wage rises, while we all feel the costs in our pockets as inflation jumped above 3pc and shows no sign of returning to target. Yet markets continue to price in two rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, seemingly because they would really like that to happen. No amount of optimism will change the realities of the situation. Andrew Wishart, an economist at investment bank Berenberg, is one of the few willing to put his head above the parapet and predict the end of rate cuts in 2025. Last week – before the US bombed Iran – Mr Wishart was already certain that inflation would stay around the 3.5pc mark, forcing the Bank of England's hand and ruling out any cuts before Christmas. Alongside increased business costs, he was concerned about government spending and stubborn services and food price inflation. He also raised the spectre of oil price volatility, suggesting that a spike to $85 a barrel would keep inflation at 4pc. Were Iran to follow through on its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, other analyst estimates have put the oil price at $130-$150. Of course, Britain's bigger problem in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was about the supply of gas rather than oil, but, as Chris Wheaton, an oil and gas analyst at broker Stifel, explained, that risk is present here, too. Were liquefied natural gas (LNG) production from Qatar and the UAE to be disrupted, he predicts the energy price cap in the UK could more than double to £3,000-£4,500 per year, which would be 'economically and political disastrous'. With its recent embarrassing experience of underestimating an energy price crisis, it stands to reason the Bank of England will err aggressively on the side of caution. Even if inflation hovers around 4pc rather rising back to the highs of 2022, consumers will be hurt. Those long-trailed 'time lags' are finally set to hit the last of the mortgage market, as those remaining homeowners are pulled off their cheap five-year rates secured at record-low rates in the pandemic. For example, a homeowner with a £500,000 mortgage forced to remortgage at 4.5pc today would see their repayments rise by nearly £800 a month, assuming they were previously paying 1.5pc. Over a year, that's nearly £10,000 – a devastating hit to the nation's personal finances. Of course, everything I've said could age like milk. Everything may just work out; tensions ease, inflation lowers, rate cuts continue. I certainly hope so. But just in case, I would start tightening your purse strings.


Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
India File: Risks lurk behind rush of share sales
(This was originally published in the India File newsletter, which is issued every Tuesday. Sign up here to get the latest news from India and how it matters to the world.) June 24 - A near 14% gain in India's benchmark index in the last six months has spurred a resurgence in initial public offerings and secondary market share sales. A sign of a strong market? Or a cue for a correction? That's the focus of this week's analysis. And India, like the rest of the world, is grappling with geopolitical uncertainty heightened by the Israel-Iran war. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a ceasefire, easing market concerns. Follow our live coverage here. India remains vulnerable to Middle East tensions, however, given its heavy dependence on oil imports from the region. Scroll down for more on that. ** Israel reports waves of Iranian missiles, soon after Trump announced ceasefire ** Crisis-hit Nissan braced for scrutiny on turnaround plan at shareholder meeting ** DeepSeek aids China's military and evaded export controls, US official says ** Virgin Australia shares soar 8.3% in $439 million IPO debut ** Under-fire Thai government to push ahead with cabinet reshuffle India's initial public offerings and secondary share sales have soared in the last two months, approaching the hefty volumes of last September when the main share indexes were at record highs. This flood of supply, analysts warn, could bring an unwelcome repeat of the market correction late last year, when upbeat sentiment in the markets and the economy triggered a surge in share sales that overwhelmed investor buying. The risks look a bit more ominous this time, given lacklustre fund inflows from both foreign and domestic investors, while Middle East tensions and geopolitical uncertainty cast a shadow over markets globally. Analysts also say Indian share valuations have once again begun to look stretched. Five new public issues are open in India this week and are expected to raise close to $1.75 billion, according to data available on stock exchange websites. The largest is financier HDB Financial Services, while others include a real estate developer, a civil engineering firm and a producer of industrial gases. Foreign-invested firms including ICICI Prudential Asset Management and LG Electronics' India arm have also said they will launch public offerings in the coming months if market conditions remain conducive. All in all, 47 companies are seeking regulatory approval for Indian IPOs. For market observers, it's a bit of deja vu. Last year, India outranked larger peers like the U.S. in the amount of funds raised from IPOs but activity slowed early this year as benchmark stock market indexes slid from their late September peaks. By the time the slide finally came to a halt in early April, the Nifty 50 had fallen 15%. Since then, the benchmark has rebounded about 14% and share sellers are once again coming out of the woodwork. Alongside the IPOs, last month there were $5.5 billion worth of secondary market sales by large shareholders of listed companies, according to LSEG data. Among the sellers were British American Tobacco, which raised $1.5 billion by offloading part of its long-held investment in India's ITC, and a co-founder of IndiGo Airlines, who sold $1.36 billion worth of his shares. Prominent sellers this month include Reliance Industries, which raised $1.1 billion via a two-tranche sale of shares in Asian Paints, a company it invested in nearly 17 years ago. Those block trades piqued some renewed interest among foreign investors who had fled Indian markets during the latest downturn, although for the full year so far foreigners remain net sellers. Some analysts fear, however, that the rush of share sales could pull funds away from the secondary markets and weigh down the broader rebound in Indian stock indexes since March. The equivalent of $7.2 billion of equity supply was absorbed into India's share markets through IPOs and secondary share sales last month, and $6 billion so far in June, Jefferies global head of equity strategy Christopher Wood said in his GREED & Fear report last week. "It is this supply which poses the main risk to the market," Wood said, highlighting that equity supply was running at around $7 billion a month prior to the correction that began late last September. At the same time, the market has less capacity to take up the supply, with the flow of investor funds into Indian equities below last year's peak. Foreign investors so far this year have sold a net $10 billion worth of shares, compared with a small net purchase of $124 million last year and a hefty $21 billion in purchases in 2023. Inflows into domestic mutual funds fell to a 13-month low in May. The rush by large shareholders to unload some of their holdings, moreover, signals that valuations have grown rich enough to tempt them to cash out, Jefferies said. The Nifty index now trades at 22.5-times 12-month forward earnings, the highest since the start of last year's correction. Is the surge in share sales signalling a top in the benchmark equity indexes? Write to me at opens new tab Oil prices spiked early in the week after news of U.S. air strikes on Iran, and while they eased again after Iran forewent any move to disrupt oil supplies and President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire, the volatility highlighted the risks for economies such as India's that depend on imported oil. Global markets were closely watching whether Iran would block oil shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz, although the doomsday scenarios may have been "more fear than reality", Reuters columnist Ron Bousso wrote in this piece. For more insights on the energy markets, sign up for Ron's newsletter here. India, the world's third-largest importer and consumer of oil, is particularly vulnerable since it imports nearly half of its crude oil from the Middle East. Read here to understand the risk that a wider Middle East conflict could pose to India, and how the government aims to ensure fuel supplies by tapping other sources, including Russia, whose share of India's oil imports has risen in recent years. A prolonged period of elevated oil prices could upend India's favourable macroeconomic balance, where low inflation has created leeway for steep interest rate cuts. The government's control over retail prices, though, could cushion any impact, economists said. A 10% rise in the crude oil price has the potential to push up inflation by around 1%, said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. "However, in the case of the CPI, as prices have been fixed by the government through both cycles of rising and declining crude oil prices, the impact will be minimal," Sabnavis said. Half a dozen big global equities traders, including Citadel Securities, IMC Trading, Millennium and Optiver, are ratcheting up their presence in India's booming derivatives markets, fuelling a hiring spree and pushing exchanges to improve technology. In April, India accounted for nearly 60% of the 7.3 billion equities derivatives contracts that traded hands globally, the Futures Industry Association says. For Western firms, the rush is too big to ignore. Get exclusive details on the India expansion plans of global trading firms in this report by Reuters journalists Jaspreet Kalra and Jayshree P. Upadhyay. ($1 = 86.5600 Indian rupees)