Pakistan's Asim Munir crafts a new gambit against India

Economic Times

3 days ago

Synopsis
Tensions escalate in South Asia as Pakistan, under Field Marshal Asim Munir, considers a multi-front strategy against India. Renewed US support emboldens Pakistan, potentially involving Bangladesh and India's northeast. Pakistan's military spokesman signals intentions to strike deeper within India, starting from the east.
Agencies Asim Munir In a region long accustomed to fraught borders and historical enmities, a potentially dangerous new front is emerging in South Asia. At the center of this shifting strategic chessboard is Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief and the de facto ruler of the country. Bolstered by renewed American support and emboldened by shifting geopolitical currents, Munir appears to be recalibrating Pakistan's strategy toward India.A recent interview with The Economist of a spokesperson for Pakistan's military provided a telling glimpse into this strategy. Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry told The Economist that in a future conflict, 'we'll start from the East,' a remark that can be interpreted as a signal of intentions to open a new front against India through the eastern corridor, where the regime change in Dhaka has significantly altered the security landscape."Field Marshal Munir wants to bring it to the negotiating table," The Economist wrote. "Narendra Modi, India's prime minister, is determined to resist and has vowed to respond to any more terrorist attacks with further military action. Asked how Pakistan would react to that, its military spokesman says it would begin by striking deeper within India. 'We'll start from the East,' he says. 'They also need to understand that they can be hit everywhere.' The Field Marshal's grip on power may have increased since May. But so too have the risks of a bigger clash between South Asia's nuclear strongmen."
A new axis in Dhaka Until early 2025, India enjoyed a relatively stable and cooperative relationship with Bangladesh under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina. Her administration had proven to be a bulwark against Islamist extremism and a reliable partner in cross-border security coordination. However, her ouster last year, followed by the rise of hardline Islamist factions, has undone years of diplomatic progress.The new political leadership in Dhaka has signaled a softening stance toward Pakistan, reviving old Islamist solidarity rhetoric and quietly reactivating links with Pakistan's intelligence services. Signs of renewed cooperation between radical groups in Bangladesh and Pakistan's deep state have emerged in the form of arms trafficking, madrassa activism and movement of operatives in the Chittagong Hill Tracts and border areas adjacent to India's northeast.
While the statement from Pakistan's military spokesman could be dismissed as rhetorical bravado, the regional shifts suggest it may represent a broader strategic calculation that aims to surprise and overwhelm India by exploiting vulnerabilities in the east.
Munir's strategic plan
Field Marshal Munir's actions over the past year reveal a deliberate attempt to re-anchor Pakistan's position in global geopolitics. His overtures to the United States have begun yielding tangible results. His June 2025 luncheon with US President Donald Trump at the White House, followed by Pakistan awarding its highest civilian award upon General Michael Kurilla of CENTCOM, indicates a strategic reset in US-Pakistan relations. Kurilla had earlier called Pakistan as a "phenomenal partner in counterterrorism". Trump's mocking criticism of India -- including the imposition of new tariffs and the farcical suggestion that US companies would drill for oil in Pakistan which Pakistan can sell to India -- has emboldened Munir's camp. For a Pakistani military used to leveraging superpower patronage, this signals a return to relevance. Munir is now clearly positioning himself as a regional player who can assist Washington's objectives in Iran, the Islamic world, and possibly even in normalising relations between Muslim countries and Israel.Such patronage gives Munir both the diplomatic cover and strategic confidence to challenge India in unconventional ways, and perhaps even consider an expansion of conflict zones beyond Kashmir.
India's eastern theatre The logic behind opening a front in the east is grounded in Pakistan's need to offset India's superior conventional power. By involving Bangladesh or using its territory to facilitate proxy operations, Pakistan could stretch Indian military resources and force the Indian leadership to divide its focus and assets between two fronts. The northeastern states of India, already dealing with porous borders, demographic sensitivities, and sporadic insurgencies, present exploitable vulnerabilities.Moreover, cultural and linguistic proximity in the border regions of West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura allows operatives to move with a level of deniability not available in the west. Unlike the heavily militarised Line of Control, the eastern frontier is not bristling with weapons and surveillance to the same degree. For Pakistan, this opens an opportunity for deniable attacks, possibly through sleeper cells or cross-border militants supported by Bangladesh-based jihadi networks.This is not merely a tactical shift but a strategic evolution toward hybrid warfare, incorporating disinformation, cyber-operations and irregular warfare in areas where India's response infrastructure is still catching up.
The shadow of Operation Sindoor India's most recent military operation, Operation Sindoor, was a significant departure from its earlier doctrine of strategic restraint. In response to coordinated terror attacks, Indian forces launched missile strikes deep into Pakistani territory, targeting nine terror camps and disabling nearly a dozen air bases. The action demonstrated both technological superiority and a willingness to escalate beyond the conventional limits of conflict management.However, the deterrence effect of Operation Sindoor appears to be limited. The Pakistani establishment, particularly Munir, seems to have interpreted it as a warning shot rather than a constraint. This may have catalysed Pakistan's shift toward asymmetric warfare, with the goal of circumventing India's conventional dominance.
Indian intelligence agencies are reportedly taking the eastern threat seriously. Surveillance has increased, with military intelligence and border forces in Assam and Meghalaya placed on alert. Diplomatic engagement with key regional allies, especially ASEAN countries and Gulf states, has been strengthened to deny Pakistan broad-based Islamic world support in the event of another confrontation. Munir's pursuit of a multi-front strategy against India, involving not just Kashmir but potentially Bangladesh and India's vulnerable northeast, marks a dangerous evolution in South Asian geopolitics. His confidence is rooted in a reinvigorated relationship with the US, domestic consolidation of power and the perception that India may be overstretched or distracted. But this is a high-risk gamble. For India, the imperative is to preempt such moves with strategic foresight, integrated intelligence operations and a recalibrated eastern defense posture.